weathafella Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Winters over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I had to laugh at this post. lol. it was a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Winters over. Wow, little early for that. Finally looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 lol...latest RPM likes the burbs just west of BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 4 consecutive winters without a 10" snowstorm at ORH. Only time on record that has happened. Even last winter had one (even if it did occur in October). Regardless, people aint seen nothing if they think this is as bad as it gets. I do think there is still potential for a lot of tricks up this storm's sleeve....as long as people don't get to unrealistic. I could see a bit more snow on the front end for many, and the CAD in the interior has looked more impressive today. You can actually see the higher pressure isobars advancing SW during the latter stages of the the first event. Weatherwiz and I went from 2/12/06 to 1/12/11 without a 10" storm. Granted not as impressive as ORH going that length of time without 10" but still, like you said, this isn't even close to as bad as it gets. We had to "payback" for '10-'11 some way I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 yep. only been discussing ice for the last 36 hours. Not really - i've read through just as much clamor where people keep complaining about the lack of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 NAM forecast soundings look pretty good for snow for southern NH, especially north of KMHT. South of the border into Ma does not look to support snow past 66 hours or so. The surface temps also look warm, although I would be skeptical of that. Looks like any ptype is possible here, though trending to ZR and rain. The GGEM does look cooler, kind of like the NAM. The UK looks downright cold, but I worry that the plymouth plots are based on the sounding data, which is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Winters over. hahaha... oy vay - I like how after all the insult to the snow geese, the CMC has the temerity to lube up the CD and insert it by way of a RAINY norlun trough - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Euro has athe second wave primary low over eastern OH at h84. Looks warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 H96 secondary basically over CT. Snow confined to northern VT/NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 H96 secondary basically over CT. Snow confined to northern VT/NH We keep hoping it'll look better, it keeps getting worse with each run. We'll be relegated to putting our hopes in the 22nd time period only to get Charlie browned on that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Not really - i've read through just as much clamor where people keep complaining about the lack of cold. There is a lack of cold. If there wasn't it would be snowing to I95. Everyone has said ice looks like a good bet for ORH hills and RT2 north for prolonged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 H96 secondary basically over CT. Snow confined to northern VT/NH We stay snow? What's it looking for QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This is becoming more and more about the first event....second event on Euro rains even up to the Canadian border. One reason I always am against combining threads for events, but I digress. The CAD signal does look pretty impressive though for event #1, so we're going to have to watch that pretty closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This is becoming more and more about the first event....second event on Euro rains even up to the Canadian border. One reason I always am against combining threads for events, but I digress. The CAD signal does look pretty impressive though for event #1, so we're going to have to watch that pretty closely. Does the Euro look like the GFS now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Can't we separate the events now, I now "saki" suggested this as option yesterday and I don't think ray pretty much cares at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 We stay snow? What's it looking for QPF? You flip early. 0.5-0.75" a lot of liquid verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 You flip early. 0.5-0.75" a lot of liquid verbatim. lol lovely...luckily it's still like 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 There is a lack of cold. If there wasn't it would be snowing to I95. Everyone has said ice looks like a good bet for ORH hills and RT2 north for prolonged. The cold is there. That's why there will likely be some snow and ice in SNE. But the strength and position of the primary combined with insufficient coastal development introduces enough warm air to spoil the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This is becoming more and more about the first event....second event on Euro rains even up to the Canadian border. One reason I always am against combining threads for events, but I digress. The CAD signal does look pretty impressive though for event #1, so we're going to have to watch that pretty closely. Will, I think we should have a separate thread starting later today/tonight for the Sunday event. It's coming into more clear a focus now. 1 thread for that event, 1 thread for the next event/period after. It just seemed excessive so far out. The 3rd event appears to be the main event next weekend. Can't we separate the events now, I now "saki" suggested this as option yesterday and I don't think ray pretty much cares at this point Seems like the way to go tonight for the 0z. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Hey guys...I know these questions are annoying but will ask anyway..driving from northern Jersey to Dover/Portsmouth, NH on early Sunday (leaving at 6:30AM, getting there 11:30AM). 84 to pike to 495 look like a bad idea? Thinking 95 up coast may be smarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 lol lovely...luckily it's still like 4-5 days out. Lol yeah, I'm still looking at ens mostly for h5 setup this far out so the ECM ens will be telling. Haven't got a look at individual gfs ens members yet but the ens mean was good for up here. We will see. In the mean time, it looks good for 2-4" Sunday into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Good...rain to Quebec city...I'm sick of missing good snow by 20 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Euro continues the idea of big time cold coming in around 21-22 of December World is not going to end...the warmth will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Euro continues the idea of big time cold coming in around 21-22 of December World is not going to end...the warmth will Unfortunately that 'big time cold' has been 8-10 days away, for the last month.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXheights Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 NNE ECM et, all Sun. Night/first part of Monday-- wet snow possibly little rain/mix all the way up to Jay well north of all previous ECM operational runs. Mon. night into Tues -- a little more beefy but nearly a replay - 0 degree iso ,5400 m thickness all the way to Canadian border by 00z Wed but later Tuesday night some additional backside def. zone wrap around very elevation based however but something for the resorts... Friday night system -- almost replay 0C iso 540 line briefly north to Montreal then some CAA, but even lack of up-slope. The behavior looks like October based on temps being just too warm. Have never seen getting snow up here to be so !@#$!@#%!@#$ hard before Xmas. Never! huh wonder why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 NNE ECM et, all Sun. Night/first part of Monday-- wet snow possibly little rain/mix all the way up to Jay well north of all previous ECM operational runs. Mon. night into Tues -- a little more beefy but nearly a replay - 0 degree iso ,5400 m thickness all the way to Canadian border by 00z Wed but later Tuesday night some additional backside def. zone wrap around very elevation based however but something for the resorts... Friday night system -- almost replay 0C iso 540 line briefly north to Montreal then some CAA, but even lack of up-slope. The behavior looks like October based on temps being just too warm. Have never seen getting snow up here to be so !@#$!@#%!@#$ hard before Xmas. Never! huh wonder why? That would be a brutal outcome after all this anticipation. The resorts will dry on the vine financially over the holidays if that is the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 NNE ECM et, all Sun. Night/first part of Monday-- wet snow possibly little rain/mix all the way up to Jay well north of all previous ECM operational runs. Mon. night into Tues -- a little more beefy but nearly a replay - 0 degree iso ,5400 m thickness all the way to Canadian border by 00z Wed but later Tuesday night some additional backside def. zone wrap around very elevation based however but something for the resorts... Friday night system -- almost replay 0C iso 540 line briefly north to Montreal then some CAA, but even lack of up-slope. The behavior looks like October based on temps being just too warm. Have never seen getting snow up here to be so !@#$!@#%!@#$ hard before Xmas. Never! huh wonder why? With regards to Sunday/Monday, I think most folks north and east of like BTV-LEB stay snow (per 850mb)...I don't have access to vertical profiles on the Euro. Looks like a 2-4" deal, not much more. With wave 2, the way operational guidance has been performing, I wouldn't be surprised if it shifts a lot by 0z. 12z ECM ensembles will give either hope, or solidify a warmer scenario IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 That would be a brutal outcome after all this anticipation. The resorts will dry on the vine financially over the holidays if that is the outcome. Just a short time ago SNE was expecting a potential icestorm. Stunning change very depressing. I have hope for that last system but realistically there's a chance many of us go through December with no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 NNE ECM et, all Sun. Night/first part of Monday-- wet snow possibly little rain/mix all the way up to Jay well north of all previous ECM operational runs. Mon. night into Tues -- a little more beefy but nearly a replay - 0 degree iso ,5400 m thickness all the way to Canadian border by 00z Wed but later Tuesday night some additional backside def. zone wrap around very elevation based however but something for the resorts... Friday night system -- almost replay 0C iso 540 line briefly north to Montreal then some CAA, but even lack of up-slope. The behavior looks like October based on temps being just too warm. Have never seen getting snow up here to be so !@#$!@#%!@#$ hard before Xmas. Never! huh wonder why? If this is who I think it is, I've read your forecasts many times and greatly respect you as a met. Hope you will post here more often. The bold part is a little much though, honestly no offense meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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