NorEastermass128 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Is there really any accumulating snow in SNE south of the Pike in the next 340 hours on the GFS? Lol. I miss the days of the GFS/AVN showing multiple blizzards per run. Aside of the 20-27thish ...after that I think we just rinse and repeat this same tired pattern. Congrats on breaking the 11,000 post mark. But man, this region really needs to catch a break. We're at the point when even snow haters wouldn't mind a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 LOL At least we get to track foggy, cold, drizzly, raw London days...better than having the sun out like last winter. We need an over-performer to lift everyone's spirits. Not sure that's in the cards this week but it's been several winters now (outside of SW CT) since we've had some nice accumulation busts to the plus side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Ukie and GGEM are pretty cold. Both struggle to get the 850 0C line much past the pike for the first event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 We need an over-performer to lift everyone's spirits. Not sure that's in the cards this week but it's been several winters now (outside of SW CT) since we've had some nice accumulation busts to the plus side. The biggest storm that I've seen in nearly 2 years was the 4" of glop that melted by 10AM the morning following Snowtober last fall. Last month I got 3.5", but even that melted by noontime the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Nice good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Congrats on breaking the 11,000 post mark. But man, this region really needs to catch a break. We're at the point when even snow haters wouldn't mind a little. I love snow, it's killing me that my kids are staring at a green lawn but at least we can drive to ski country and see snow before Christmas this year. It's a discussion board, all I'm saying is I don't have the optimism many have going forward after about 12/27. Maybe we're seeing a reload and winter comes in guns blazing around/after the first, but JMHO we need this longwave pattern to shift a little west or WNW for us. Move the western highs back more towards Idaho, the highs to our north a little further west so we end up with a storm track that's further east a 100 or so miles. All I see in the real long term aside of that one week period is CNE/NNE cashing in, those of us to the south are not well as modeled. Will says the UKIE and CMC are cold, maybe that bodes well for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 We need an over-performer to lift everyone's spirits. Not sure that's in the cards this week but it's been several winters now (outside of SW CT) since we've had some nice accumulation busts to the plus side. You want an over-performer just lower your expectations. Expect a tenth of glaze on Sunday for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 On a side note...prayers and wishes to those in Newtown, CT today. Horrible news coming out of there. Really puts things into perspective. Still, good news with the UKIE and GGEM. Hopefully the EURO will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 wheres sultan and the ghost of dec 92 seriously thou bring out Dr no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GEFS did not look as warm up here with wave 2 like the op had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 wheres sultan and the ghost of dec 92 seriously thou bring out Dr no. Lets never, ever bring up that analog until it is time..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 You want an over-performer just lower your expectations. Expect a tenth of glaze on Sunday for example. Easily accessible model data and more models runs per day has also contributed to raised expectations...we see one great soluton out of 87 model runs 102 hours before the event and then people cry bust when it doesn't pan out. And despite being one of the biggest snow lovers here, I am not feeling the least bit sorry for some people lamenting over the fact they haven't gotten a good storm less than 2 years removed from one of the snowiest months on record for many who post here. Get back to me when they live through another 1980s-early 1990s period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The biggest storm that I've seen in nearly 2 years was the 4" of glop that melted by 10AM the morning following Snowtober last fall. Last month I got 3.5", but even that melted by noontime the next day. Shovels and rock salt have been collecting dust in my basement for 2 years. I can't believe I haven't had to shovel since 2010. This needs to end soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I think the next thread title needs to have the baby in it again thats when everything turned around for the better.. GFS was crap again we will see what the euro brings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Easily accessible model data and more models runs per day has also contributed to raised expectations...we see one great soluton out of 87 model runs 102 hours before the event and then people cry bust when it doesn't pan out. And despite being one of the biggest snow lovers here, I am not feeling the least bit sorry for some people lamenting over the fact they haven't gotten a good storm less than 2 years removed from one of the snowiest months on record for many who post here. Get back to me when they live through another 1980s-early 1990s period. The days when 6" of snow was a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Shovels and rock salt have been collecting dust in my basement for 2 years. I can't believe I haven't had to shovel since 2010. This needs to end soon. So 1/12/11, 1/21/11, 1/27/11, 1/24/11, etc, you just didn't shovel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Good God..stop the whining and nonsense posts. Most of us have a snow/ ice event this weekend and then we'll see what happens with wave 2 . It's like a 5 yr old whine fest in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Good God..stop the whining and nonsense posts. Most of us have a snow/ ice event this weekend and then we'll see what happens with wave 2 . It's like a 5 yr old whine fest in here I had to laugh at this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I think the next thread title needs to have the baby in it again thats when everything turned around for the better.. GFS was crap again we will see what the euro brings Quite the turn around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 wheres sultan and the ghost of dec 92 seriously thou bring out Dr no. huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 So 1/12/11, 1/21/11, 1/27/11, 1/24/11, etc, you just didn't shovel? haha oops wrong year. Pretty bad that I can't even remember the last snowstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Ride the GFS pickles ignore ENS you too can be HENRY M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The days when 6" of snow was a KU. 4 consecutive winters without a 10" snowstorm at ORH. Only time on record that has happened. Even last winter had one (even if it did occur in October). Regardless, people aint seen nothing if they think this is as bad as it gets. I do think there is still potential for a lot of tricks up this storm's sleeve....as long as people don't get to unrealistic. I could see a bit more snow on the front end for many, and the CAD in the interior has looked more impressive today. You can actually see the higher pressure isobars advancing SW during the latter stages of the the first event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 haha oops wrong year. Pretty bad that I can't even remember the last snowstorm here. I get the point though. It's been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Lets never, ever bring up that analog until it is time..lol. I take blame for this because I brought it up a lot with stratospheric analogs etc. The amount of snow and devastation it produced was not meant to be the analogous part as much as a deep coastal storm and similar h5 setup with warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I take blame for this because I brought it up a lot with stratospheric analogs etc. The amount of snow and devastation it produced was not meant to be the analogous part as much as a deep coastal storm and similar h5 setup with warm air. I tried with 6 posts to say the same thing but obviously some do not understand what analogs are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Good God..stop the whining and nonsense posts. Most of us have a snow/ ice event this weekend and then we'll see what happens with wave 2 . It's like a 5 yr old whine fest in here Pot...meet kettle.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'll take the 12z GGEM... nice hits from both storm 1 and 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 For the record, NCEP has seen everything but the 12z Euro and they're riding the 0z Euro/12z GFS compromise noting that the CMC has some issues with the speed/placement in the first complex.12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET/CMC MODEL EVALUATION MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. ***UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST*** PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE 12Z NAM IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SHORTWAVE. AFTER THIS TIME, THE SURFACE LOW POSITION IS SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE CONSENSUS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND IS ONE OF THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS AS IT APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. ALOFT, THE 500MB TROUGH WITH THE NAM IS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND COMPARED TO THE OTHER 00Z MODELS. THE 12Z GFS IS COMPARABLE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHEREAS THE CMC IS AN OUTLIER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING TOO FAR WEST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I take blame for this because I brought it up a lot with stratospheric analogs etc. The amount of snow and devastation it produced was not meant to be the analogous part as much as a deep coastal storm and similar h5 setup with warm air. Oh no...LOL, not at all. I'm referring to the CPC analog which had the Dec '92 nor'easter date as an analog. I know why they did it...there were some H5 similarities, but that storm was what...maybe 1-50 year deal perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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