HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yeah, I would not rely on what the NAM gives for amounts, but it gives a piece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 I hope to enjoy my crusty 1" from Sunday before it washes away on Wednesday. Hopefully NNE gets something from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Snow number: CT: zilch Pike: (BOS/ORH): 1 LWM: 2 ASH: 6 MHT: 6 CON: 8 PSM: 6 PWM: 4 AUG: 4 That's the MET. What do the numbers correspond to? The likelihood of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Second wave could be ugly. if it exists at this point ...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 We already know the 2nd wave is ugly...big deal lol lol this unless he means for NNE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 It's so gawd damned close. I get minimal and 30 miles north is buried. It keeps me sucked in. This isn't our storm, Jerry. Keep looking to the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 What do the numbers correspond to? The likelihood of snow? Accumulation 1=1-2 2=2-4 4=4-6 6=6-8 8=8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This isn't our storm, Jerry. Keep looking to the future. Yes. But an inch would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I can't believe that it gives ASH a 6 spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I can't believe that it gives ASH a 6 spot. I can, it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 CNE / and alot of NNE look like crap in the mid levels for tue event. it looks like even up t baxter state park kisses the 0c 850 mark as it takes forever to get the LP to transfer from north central NY state to GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'd caution folks that the NAM is notoriously too high in QPF from 48 through 84 hours lead - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 ughhh http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnow114.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Snow number: CT: zilch Pike: (BOS/ORH): 1 LWM: 2 ASH: 6 MHT: 6 CON: 8 PSM: 6 PWM: 4 AUG: 4 That's the MET. Could you punch in BTV and SLK? Thanks -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Accumulation 1=1-2 2=2-4 4=4-6 6=6-8 8=8+ Got it - thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Ice storms are inherently difficulter 'er to predict; by very nature, you gotta have cold in the lower (sometimes a mere) 100 to 200mbs of troposphere, where the models have a difficult time resolving things. This smacks as one of those opportunities to bust icer -- whether folks want to get there heads around this or not, there is still a +PP situated N, and with wave running out underneath it really doesn't matter what the 800mb level is doing in my mind, there is going to be a perpetual cold drain gong on near the service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Storm 3 is gonna stink too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Storm 3 is gonna stink too. take 'em one at a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Ice storms are inherently difficulter 'er to predict; by very nature, you gotta have cold in the lower (sometimes a mere) 100 to 200mbs of troposphere, where the models have a difficult time resolving things. This smacks as one of those opportunities to bust icer -- whether folks want to get there heads around this or not, there is still a +PP situated N, and with wave running out underneath it really doesn't matter what the 800mb level is doing in my mind, there is going to be a perpetual cold drain gong on near the service. yep. only been discussing ice for the last 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Storm 3 is gonna stink too. i'm sure 4 will as well for cp we have chances galore, chances to jump of tobin every day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 At least cold air finally comes into the CONUS. None of this garbage puke air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Storm 3 is a classic snowstorm. Low pressure over the Lakes/Canada, stale old air over us and warm mid levels. We're so close to doing well with that one. Down go the bowling pins one by one. And I fear what comes after Xmas. A few days ago we had binders full of snowstorms, now all we have is dusty old analogs. (21-26 is going to produce) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Snow number: CT: zilch Pike: (BOS/ORH): 1 LWM: 2 ASH: 6 MHT: 6 CON: 8 PSM: 6 PWM: 4 AUG: 4 That's the MET. FIT spits out a 2 (2-4") ORE spits out a 4 (4-6") AFN spits out an 8 (>8") GFS disastah for next week. Can a brother get an AQW and PSF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Our shot may be more or less explosive redevelopment along the leading edge of the polar air. I'm getting excited about the 22-25th....first time since last Tuesday I've been this excited. All models have some semblance of either a 1 2 punch, to me it's probably now looking more like a single event that tries to cut, falls victim to the block but this time has a massive amount of cold air with it and ends up a rain to snow deal with a wild storm in the west atlantic. Whoever posted that GFS snow map looks reasonable to me, not much going to happen south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Winter starts the 22nd 970 bomb cuts up through NNE, floods us with cold air, nice blocking looks like that cold will stay around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Are we actually considering the GFS solution for the mid week storm? It seems so out of whack with the low development and placement. I obviously am hoping the Euro wins this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Winter starts the 22nd 970 bomb cuts up through NNE, floods us with cold air, nice blocking looks like that cold will stay around. days upon days of snow upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 days upon days of snow upcoming LOL At least we get to track foggy, cold, drizzly, raw London days...better than having the sun out like last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 days upon days of snow upcoming Or days upon days of arctic dry tundra lake freezing bitter uselessness..........but I'll take your days of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 days upon days of snow upcoming Is there really any accumulating snow in SNE south of the Pike in the next 340 hours on the GFS? Lol. I miss the days of the GFS/AVN showing multiple blizzards per run. Aside of the 20-27thish ...after that I think we just rinse and repeat this same tired pattern. (and I mean in terms of sensible weather OTG here in SNE, not at the stratospheric level, or the movement of some block from point A to point B. I mean in terms of snow/cold OTG vs the mild to near seasonable pattern we've had that's dominated by mild weather events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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