40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Our in-house WRF, FWIW (not really much at this range) does keep snow right along Ray's fanny and points north. It then cold air Walt Drag tucks down into ern MA Monday morning. You're a dirty, dirty man....filthy rotten, even... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This is gonna be one of my weenie events....yea, I don't get much snow, but I'm gonna get to be on eof the cooler spots in sne for a time I think....while hills s and w of here are above freezing. I also think that the closer you are to the source region (like NE MA) the colder it will be too, especially with NE flow. You may struggle past 32. Don't hold me to that, but I would not be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 If we had the air mass from exactly 5 years earlier in '07...I think this event would be pretty sweet. But this air mass is enough worse to probably not quite be enough. Funny part is this coming airmass is probably colder for N Maine than that '07 one was, but it doesn't press quite as far south. Maybe we can pull off a last minute surprise with guidance under estimating it. I wouldn't mind a nice surprise. These last 12 months are getting old real quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I also think that the closer you are to the source region (like NE MA) the colder it will be too, especially with NE flow. You may struggle past 32. Don't hold me to that, but I would not be shocked. Yeah that sounds reasonable to me. You can see the cold tuck well plus the mid level front hitting a wall with the cold hanging tough once you get far enough N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Not sure I've ever said this before, but I'd like to be in Lawrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Thanks for the imby updates guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Not sure I've ever said this before, but I'd like to be in Lawrence. Bold statement..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 09z SREFs point to the icing potential that Mitch alluded to for the Berks. 50-60% probs showing up. That's actually a very robust prob for the SREFs. They are usually horrible at picking up icing more than very close range. Though we are still like 60-72 hours out...hard to remember that given how long we have tracked this. So not exactly in the SREF wheelehouse, but an impressive output nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Not sure I've ever said this before, but I'd like to be in Lawrence. that's almost as bad as me when i used to say i wished i was back in Leominster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I keep hearing things like "especially good in ME" and "Maine jackpot." Would that include the coast, or just ski country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Snow number: CT: zilch Pike: (BOS/ORH): 1 LWM: 2 ASH: 6 MHT: 6 CON: 8 PSM: 6 PWM: 4 AUG: 4 That's the MET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 that's almost as bad as me when i used to say i wished i was back in Leominster. Only meteorology can render socioeconomic considerations irrelevant....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Snow number: CT: zilch Pike: (BOS/ORH): 1 LWM: 2 ASH: 6 MHT: 6 CON: 8 PSM: 6 PWM: 4 AUG: 4 That's the MET. Man, that is rough after the bad breaks of the past couple of seasons, to see ASH at 6, and myself a 1or 2....maybe this will be the one to change the karma, and stem the tide.... 10 mile bust? 'Cmon..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 that's almost as bad as me when i used to say i wished i was back in Leominster. I'm glad I only work here. Always fun to drive home up Rte Poop and watch the snow increase with elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I keep hearing things like "especially good in ME" and "Maine jackpot." Would that include the coast, or just ski country? Your good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Snow number: CT: zilch Pike: (BOS/ORH): 1 LWM: 2 ASH: 6 MHT: 6 CON: 8 PSM: 6 PWM: 4 AUG: 4 That's the MET. Any way to make it spit out FIT or the airport in Jaffrey (forget the code...)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'm glad I only work here. Always fun to drive home up Rte Poop and watch the snow increase with elevation. i used to live within walking distance of the then-Searstown mall. After march 2001 i loved the place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 the line will probably get down to andover/495 interchange between 6 snow and 1.5 slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Any way to make it spit out FIT or the airport in Jaffrey (forget the code...)? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Any way to make it spit out FIT or the airport in Jaffrey (forget the code...)? FIT spits out a 2 (2-4") ORE spits out a 4 (4-6") AFN spits out an 8 (>8") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 It's so gawd damned close. I get minimal and 30 miles north is buried. It keeps me sucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 2 FIT spits out a 2 (2-4") ORE spits out a 4 (4-6") AFN spits out an 8 (>8") Thanks. So maybe a 3 or 4 for KHUBB Tubes will be sad he left NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GFS is a little colder at 850 through hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Thanks. So maybe a 3 or 4 for KHUBB Tubes will be sad he left NH Assuming the NAM is close to right. Euro has much lighter QPF. Nobody would get much more than 3 or 4" from that first wave on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Assuming the NAM is close to right. Euro has much lighter QPF. Nobody would get much more than 3 or 4" from that first wave on the Euro. i noticed that even the nam has been a bit too warm Up here in the last few events, especially in the boundary layer. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Even this close to the event, models still struggle with weak s/w's. Look in the OH area at hr 60 (12z) and 66(06z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 i noticed that even the nam has been a bit too warm Up here in the last few events, especially in the boundary layer. Something to watch. Yeah I was mentioning that yesterday. It could definitely make icing a bit of an issue in the hills on the east slopes down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Second wave could be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 We already know the 2nd wave is ugly...big deal lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GFS more bullish with precip before the 0 line rips through. Verbatim the BL is actually slightly warmer but I'm not super concerned about that in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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