powderfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Pretty good 6-10" swath of snow Yeah you guys get hammered with that first one. This one two punch could be very lucrative for you guys in NH and especially ME. Been a while coming since we've had a good ol' Maine jackpot. Good to see you guys have something coming down the pike as you guys are always good sports in the NNE thread when us Green Mtn folks are talking pages about upslope and arctic NW flow fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The CAD in the mid-levels at the MA/NH border is pretty remarkable...it wasn't just one weenie run doing that...12z NAM is doing ti again and a lot of other guidance doing it. Watch Ray end up with 6" of paste after complaining for the last 24 hours, lol. I think guidance is pretty steadfast of the MA/NH border representing that dilineation.....but I am due for a break. This area has been a black hole, so who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 There is no question a La Niña-negative PDO tendency is and will affect the pattern, despite the -NAO. I think the comparisons to 2010 in terms of anomaly placement are fine but expectations will fail if you expect similar results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I need some magic here...great chance to make up some ground on Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The CAD in the mid-levels at the MA/NH border is pretty remarkable...it wasn't just one weenie run doing that...12z NAM is doing ti again and a lot of other guidance doing it. Watch Ray end up with 6" of paste after complaining for the last 24 hours, lol. And that's where it stays in advance of the next system. No push really behind system one at all, maybe 10-20 miles. UGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yeah you guys get hammered with that first one. This one two punch could be very lucrative for you guys in NH and especially ME. Been a while coming since we've had a good ol' Maine jackpot. Good to see you guys have something coming down the pike as you guys are always good sports in the NNE thread when us Green Mtn folks are talking pages about upslope and arctic NW flow fronts. Thanks Scott, Going to be a happy sledder, Nice wet paste for a base and then more in the pipeline down the road hopefully can produce as well, A far cry from 2011-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 And that's where it stays in advance of the next system. No push really behind system one at all, maybe 10-20 miles. UGH. Some of us only need 10 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 NAM's got that first system as warning snows for Dendrite and points NE with 0.5-1.0" QPF... advisory level stuff back this way with a 3-6" type deal. Verbatim of course. Solid 3-5" for you, 4-7" over this way. Jeff does great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 There is no question a La Niña-negative PDO tendency is and will affect the pattern, despite the -NAO. I think the comparisons to 2010 in terms of anomaly placement are fine but expectations will fail if you expect similar results. This La Nina is like an ex that just won't stop stalking you....but unfortunately, we can't take out an atmospheric restraining order. Its like...its gone, but it isn't....we've been in a la Nina since like 1999, it seems...Christ. Piss off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 It's not even as much CAD as it is a front around 850mb that allows the winds to veer north of it. Too late for many of us but northern sections of SNE may luck out. That's what creates that 850mb temp "wall" near the NH/MA border. Yeah well I think a lot of it has to due with the blocking pushing that vortmax just south of SNE...so its trying to redevelop the ML center almost overhead which brings the WAA to halt. I think the 72 hour panel shows it well with the potent vortmax over S CT. Its basically an isothermal snowbomb right at the MA/NH border there around AFN looking at the soundings. This might trend back north into dendrite's BY, but it wouldn't take much of a shift south (like 25 miles) to bring a good chunk of N MA north of the pike into at least a more prolonged period of steadier snow. So it probably still bears watching for that area anyway. I'm also still not convinced we warm from mid 20s at 12z Sunday to like 33F as quickly as it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 WAA with a >1030mb high just over the border is a pretty good setup for the valley floor provided we don't waste too much time saturating. Unlike some we can't complain about a couple inches here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This La Nina is like an ex that just won't stop stalking you....but unfortunately, we can't take out an atmospheric restraining order. Its like...its gone, but it isn't....we've been in a la Nina since like 1999, it seems...Christ. Piss off. You did had a 5 year relationship with El Nino from 2002-2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I am thinking 2-4" for my area then a little bit of ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 You did had a 5 year relationship with El Nino from 2002-2007. True. but I mean...at least when Nino went, it went....la Nina just has this propensity to leave its lingering morning breath, after its already supposedly gone. '08, '09, '11, and now '12....the la Nina that wasn't. The Nino was a still born, and got seemingly reincarnated as a la Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'm on my phone...how do the mid level temps look for up here above h85? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'm on my phone...how do the mid level temps look for up here above h85? The CON sounding looks like all snow. It gets close at 800mb at 66 hours, but then it cools again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'm on my phone...how do the mid level temps look for up here above h85? You are all snow until hr 81 or so when 850 goes just above 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I can envision the posts all over Sne on Sunday.. Things like, wow what a nice surprise . 3 inches and I expected mood flakes. Or I'm still 29.5 with light zr at 6:00 pm when models had me in the mid 30's or Bryce's first snowfall when all I expected was a trash can topper. That high and cad means bizzy folks. Remember past experiences when thinking about forecasts/ outcomes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I can envision the posts all over Sne on Sunday.. Things like, wow what a nice surprise . 3 inches and I expected mood flakes. Or I'm still 29.5 with light zr at 6:00 pm when models had me in the mid 30's or Bryce's first snowfall when all I expected was a trash can topper. That high and cad means bizzy folks. Remember past experiences when thinking about forecasts/ outcomes Nice, I grabbed 6" and cut Kev's lead in half, while he got his scalp glazed over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I can envision the posts all over Sne on Sunday.. Things like, wow what a nice surprise . 3 inches and I expected mood flakes. Or I'm still 29.5 with light zr at 6:00 pm when models had me in the mid 30's or Bryce's first snowfall when all I expected was a trash can topper. That high and cad means bizzy folks. Remember past experiences when thinking about forecasts/ outcomes I think I can squueze out a half inch or so, but I wish precip came in like a wall....similar to our normal SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 You are all snow until hr 81 or so when 850 goes just above 0C. Yeah I should have said that after the system moves out on SW winds it does rise above 0C, but the precip is over or just FZDZ. The funny part is the sfc has a nice cold tuck going on at the same time with 20s getting into N MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'm on my phone...how do the mid level temps look for up here above h85? Warmest level look like it in the 750-800mb area but you stay below 0c the whole time. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KLCI.txt By 84h, the 850 line is on top of you but that's after almost 1" has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yeah I should have said that after the system moves out on SW winds it does rise above 0C, but the precip is over or just FZDZ. The funny part is the sfc has a nice cold tuck going on at the same time with 20s getting into N MA. Yeah likely FZDZ or crappy snow grains. I noticed that tuck as well. I could see that nosing into ern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I can envision the posts all over Sne on Sunday.. Things like, wow what a nice surprise . 3 inches and I expected mood flakes. Or I'm still 29.5 with light zr at 6:00 pm when models had me in the mid 30's or Bryce's first snowfall when all I expected was a trash can topper. That high and cad means bizzy folks. Remember past experiences when thinking about forecasts/ outcomes :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Well if we could get a better front end, maybe. It looks like the precip blossoms as soon as mid level temps rise here, and winds may go more east at the surface. Tough call. Part of me thinks winds stay more nrth for a longer time with the high nosing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yeah likely FZDZ or crappy snow grains. I noticed that tuck as well. I could see that nosing into ern MA. This is gonna be one of my weenie events....yea, I don't get much snow, but I'm gonna get to be on eof the cooler spots in sne for a time I think....while hills s and w of here are above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yeah likely FZDZ or crappy snow grains. I noticed that tuck as well. I could see that nosing into ern MA. If we had the air mass from exactly 5 years earlier in '07...I think this event would be pretty sweet. But this air mass is enough worse to probably not quite be enough. Funny part is this coming airmass is probably colder for N Maine than that '07 one was, but it doesn't press quite as far south. Maybe we can pull off a last minute surprise with guidance under estimating it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Our in-house WRF, FWIW (not really much at this range) does keep snow right along Ray's fanny and points north. It then cold air Walt Drag tucks down into ern MA Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 09z SREFs point to the icing potential that Mitch alluded to for the Berks. 50-60% probs showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Just looked over the last 3 cycles of NAM ... using the synopsis alone that appears like a warning criteria ice storm after a brief snow gin up ...longer transition from S to N of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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