40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Man the ECM looks pretty darn good for NNE... Maine gets absolutely smoked by both storms. Dryslot and Jayhawk shoveling for days. Looks lighter out this way, but still about 3 days of mood snows and wintery precip. We'll take it. 6z GFS continues to look horrific though. Thank god we've been told that's the worst model and to throw its entire package out Man, its tough to not just flip the **** out.....south of me until this point in the season, now north...I'm so fu**ing sick of this sh**. More rain.....no worries, eternal and omnipresent hope at day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 00z runs def looked like they came in a tick cooler overall. I didn't try to stay up for the later guidance like the Euro. Models definitely keyed in the secondary sfc reflection a bit earlier. Definitely could get interesting as the mid-levels really aren't that warm either at their warmest point. On a side note, the Euro ensembles have a ridiculously strong signal for a storm on Dec 21-22 and then anothe pretty good one on Dec 27-28 I know I have been getting my cayoones busted about analogs but man for Christmas week they really have had a solid signal for what the Euro Ens are smoking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 light crust then rain? how warm are you forecasting for Sunday and Monday for hills of Ct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 00z runs def looked like they came in a tick cooler overall. I didn't try to stay up for the later guidance like the Euro. Models definitely keyed in the secondary sfc reflection a bit earlier. Definitely could get interesting as the mid-levels really aren't that warm either at their warmest point. On a side note, the Euro ensembles have a ridiculously strong signal for a storm on Dec 21-22 and then anothe pretty good one on Dec 27-28 yeah someplace between you and dendrite that warm punch is going to come to a dead stop. how far north of downtown ORH are you in reality? i know i've asked you this before but i can't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Ct rain just made bliz unplug toaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 how warm are you forecasting for Sunday and Monday for hills of Ct? lower 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 either way still doesn't look like a *serious* icy situation right now. but still some time to see where and how the axis of precip evolves. There isn't nearly enough QPF for serious ice even if someone somehow got almost all ice from this first sytem. Its less than an inch of QPF even on robust models solutions. Euro has like 2 or 3 tenths. I have a feeling the weenie snow on Sunday may trend to hold on longer as we get into the final 48 hours and the guidance "sees" the airmass a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 light crust then rain? Some flakes... maybe an inch if we're lucky followed by a minor glaze in the hills and rain/drizzle. Unless we're able to work some magic I think the Tuesday event is quickly turning hideous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The euro ensembles storm 12/22 looks cold and snowy most. I am sticking with snow to rain coast, snow to ice inland in the I90 corridor. The euro ensembles storm 12/22 looks cold and snowy most. I am sticking with snow to rain coast, snow to ice inland in the I90 corridor for the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 There isn't nearly enough QPF for serious ice even if someone somehow got almost all ice from this first sytem. Its less than an inch of QPF even on robust models solutions. Euro has like 2 or 3 tenths. I have a feeling the weenie snow on Sunday may trend to hold on longer as we get into the final 48 hours and the guidance "sees" the airmass a bit better. Yeah I do think some weenie amounts are possible in NE Mass into S NH from wave 1. That mid level warming hits a wall near the MA/NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 yeah someplace between you and dendrite that warm punch is going to come to a dead stop. how far north of downtown ORH are you in reality? i know i've asked you this before but i can't remember. About 4 miles NNW of downtown near the Holden line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 lower 80s. Srtiously you've spent lots of time discussing how its a Rainer so id like to get your thoughts on how warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 how warm are you forecasting for Sunday and Monday for hills of Ct? Personally, I'd have the CT hills in the mid 30's 34-38F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yeah I do think some weenie amounts are possible in NE Mass into S NH from wave 1. That mid level warming hits a wall near the MA/NH border. Tell Ray that so he steps away from the ledge. I'm thinking 1-3" here, but I don't think the news outlets will ever get us getting anything more than a C-1". It will certainly become a nowcast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Srtiously you've spent lots of time discussing how its a Rainer so id like to get your thoughts on how warm I have?? I've spent the last 24 hours talking about the possibility of ice. Rain does not interest me enough to focus on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Personally, I'd have the CT hills in the mid 30's 34-38F Yeah that sounds reasonable to me for both waves probably. The problem with wave 2 is that it's too fast and follows immediately after wave 1 torches the mid levels. So a 925 to 2M cold tuck will be meaningless with an ugly layer from 750-900mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Tell Ray that so he steps away from the ledge. I'm thinking 1-3" here, but I don't think the news outlets will ever get us getting anything more than a C-1". It will certainly become a nowcast event. Step away from the ledge? Everything I thought would happen, took place....nuisance, lame first event, then everything is wiped out with a hideous rainer. Hopefully next week holds, but its frustrating to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 There isn't nearly enough QPF for serious ice even if someone somehow got almost all ice from this first sytem. Its less than an inch of QPF even on robust models solutions. Euro has like 2 or 3 tenths. I have a feeling the weenie snow on Sunday may trend to hold on longer as we get into the final 48 hours and the guidance "sees" the airmass a bit better. Oh yeah I wasn't implying it was going to morph into a destructive event I just didn't want to come across as downplaying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I have?? I've spent the last 24 hours talking about the possibility of ice. Rain does not interest me enough to focus on it. Could you just throw out a number or 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Step away from the ledge? Everything I thought would happen, took place....nuisance, lame first event, then everything is wiped out with a hideous rainer. Hopefully next week holds, but its frustrating to say the least. Agreed. Sun will be nothing more than a nuisance. And I'm close to aborting storm 2. Like you said, hope remains eternal in the LR. At least the LR signal isn't torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Will are u expecting a cf will set up somewhere in ne mass sun pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Personally, I'd have the CT hills in the mid 30's 34-38F Yeah that's probably a fair number but I haven't looked too much for that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Could you just throw out a number or 2? For accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Will , do you have any hope for the interior for the mod week system ESP since Euro ens were a little coder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 For accumulation? For high temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yeah that sounds reasonable to me for both waves probably. The problem with wave 2 is that it's too fast and follows immediately after wave 1 torches the mid levels. So a 925 to 2M cold tuck will be meaningless with an ugly layer from 750-900mb. Bingo, there is no recovery. If it's going to snow down in the southern tier of SNE, it's going to be from the intial WAA burst. Something we'll have to watch though, since they can come in sooner than modeled. I think BOXs forecast looks pretty good at this time. A general 1-2" than a changeover to a period of ZR for some than a transitions to straight RA. I think this cold push is bootleg and won't have much staying power of the area S of a BOS-ALY line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Step away from the ledge? Everything I thought would happen, took place....nuisance, lame first event, then everything is wiped out with a hideous rainer. Hopefully next week holds, but its frustrating to say the least. i think you'll be ok with what you get. You'll initially be farther away from the mid-level warming so you may make out with a little more than others. From your perspective, yes it will likely be lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 i think you'll be ok with what you get. You'll initially be farther away from the mid-level warming so you may make out with a little more than others. From your perspective, yes it will likely be lame. Yea, I mean....I'm not spiking the football after getting 2", as opposed to 1".....it will wash away just as quickly. And all of the ice talk is irrelevant to me because I don't get that. It's all mid levels here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I can't win. I try to be serious and ask serious questions and I get responses like 80s for highs and desperation and weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 i think you'll be ok with what you get. You'll initially be farther away from the mid-level warming so you may make out with a little more than others. From your perspective, yes it will likely be lame. if mid level temps co-operate for any qpf "thump" we will need to make sure ene breeze/ winds don't bring higher dpoints over the cp of ne mass and torch the bl. A cf will prob set up from. N reading thru , downtown burlington, nw lexington area but don't hold me to that locale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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