Logan11 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'm not sure if I'll be far enough north in Delanson. NY... haven't seen the 0z Euro, but the 0Z NAM and GFS looked more like an ice threat to me. I'm still in snowy Dresden, Germany, but returning Sunday evening. I can't complain..having had so much snow and even sub zero cold over here. PF you would love the ski resort area of Zakopane, Tatra Mountains of southern Poland. Nearly 8k peaks and I had endless oro snow the whole time just about. The town is at 3k feet. Man the ECM looks pretty darn good for NNE... Maine gets absolutely smoked by both storms. Dryslot and Jayhawk shoveling for days. Looks lighter out this way, but still about 3 days of mood snows and wintery precip. We'll take it. 6z GFS continues to look horrific though. Thank god we've been told that's the worst model and to throw its entire package out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Verbatim it's a lousy EC run for storm 2 in SNE and much of CNE. It's right on the line here, but it tries to take the sfc low inland toward ORH. If we can keep it a more coastal track we'll hold the low level cold better into the interior. EC ens were a hair cooler and south with the sfc low. Unfortunately for SNE, the mid levels torch from storm 1. It sucks having to work with stale, marginally cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looks rainy and very mild here, good luck in ski country! Chilly morning 24 and clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Well--I think the 12z runs today will have to provide some better insight as to the first system. At this point, I think the best areas for SNE will be east of the CT River. Really, from HubbDave to the NE. Here in the northern end of GC, we might eek out some prolonged icing. But, I think the winter weather really will be east and northeast of here (and due north to Scott-PF). I like where Rick is for storm 2 on the 06GFS!!! Looks like he's picking up some of the Polish snow at baggage claim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Well, I guess my BOX forecasts is wintry. But, in the wintry category, this is as crappy as it can get. The rain mix really kills any accumulation opportunities. With respect to zr, there could be some, but for most times, the rain is falling with temps well into the 30's. I haven't looked, but I suspect the forecasts for northern ORH and northern Middlesex will be somewhat more favorable. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Lows in the lower 20s. East winds around 5 mph. Sunday: Snow likely. Highs in the lower 30s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Sunday Night: Sleet...freezing rain and snow. Near steady temperature around 30. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Monday: Snow with rain likely with sleet with freezing rain likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Monday Night: Cloudy with a chance of snow...sleet and freezing rain. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Tuesday: Cloudy with a chance of rain...snow and sleet. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Tuesday Night: Cloudy with a chance of snow and rain. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Wednesday: Cloudy with a chance of snow and rain. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Man did Will nail this..Kudos to him..Locked on the cold side COLDEST AND ROBUST OF SOLNS IS THE 14.0Z NAM /LOWEST H85-7 THICKNESSES AT 12Z SUNDAY/ WITH A DEEPER H5 LOW ENTERING THE GRT LKS RGN. A MAJORITY OF THE 14.0Z SOLNS HAVE BACKED THE ARCTIC SFC HIGH GIVING INDICATION THAT REMNANT ARCTIC COLD AIR MAY REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE RGN...DAMMING AGAINST THE APPROACHING WARM FRNT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Nice disco from HPC on winter storm mid week for many of us N THIS PATTERN...A COOLING LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTING THE MEDIUM RANGE TUE OVER THE E-CENTRAL US RAMPS UP BY MIDWEEK ALONG/OFF THE EAST COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST WHERE AMPLE GUIDANCE SUPPORT EXISTS FOR ENERGIES CONSOLIDATE TO FORM A WELL ORGANIZED WINTER COASTAL LOW AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Man did Will nail this..Kudos to him..Locked on the cold side COLDEST AND ROBUST OF SOLNS IS THE 14.0Z NAM /LOWEST H85-7 THICKNESSES AT 12Z SUNDAY/ WITH A DEEPER H5 LOW ENTERING THE GRT LKS RGN. A MAJORITY OF THE 14.0Z SOLNS HAVE BACKED THE ARCTIC SFC HIGH GIVING INDICATION THAT REMNANT ARCTIC COLD AIR MAY REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE RGN...DAMMING AGAINST THE APPROACHING WARM FRNT. Yup--BOX expecting advisory conditions in the north area of their CWA (and unlikely, but perhaps more). I'll bite harder on the comments below if the 12z suite can strengthen the argument. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS. ALL IN ALL...SCENARIO WILL PROBABLY WARRANT THE NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SUN INTO PART OF MON NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE/AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW PROBABILITY THAT PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN MA/SOUTHERN NH NEED WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING HEADLINES...BUT ODDS FAVOR AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW THAT CRITERIA AT THIS POINT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yup--BOX expecting advisory conditions in the north area of their CWA (and unlikely, but perhaps more). I'll bite harder on the comments below if the 12z suite can strengthen the argument. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS. ALL IN ALL...SCENARIO WILL PROBABLY WARRANT THE NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SUN INTO PART OF MON NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE/AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW PROBABILITY THAT PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN MA/SOUTHERN NH NEED WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING HEADLINES...BUT ODDS FAVOR AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW THAT CRITERIA AT THIS POINT. North of the Mass Pike... lol. Someone at BOX knew who would be reading that in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I see a trip to Sunday River in Sultan's near future: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 saddleback/sugarloaf will get crushd. Sr has a 800' base, so could be iffy in low elevations, but could get crushd. The other two are a near lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Nice disco from HPC on winter storm mid week for many of us N THIS PATTERN...A COOLING LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTING THE MEDIUM RANGE TUE OVER THE E-CENTRAL US RAMPS UP BY MIDWEEK ALONG/OFF THE EAST COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST WHERE AMPLE GUIDANCE SUPPORT EXISTS FOR ENERGIES CONSOLIDATE TO FORM A WELL ORGANIZED WINTER COASTAL LOW AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT. Yeah that coastal low looks good for winter storm threat for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yeah that coastal low looks good for winter storm threat for many. Sounds like the Euro ens were better than the 33 degree rainer on the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 saddleback/sugarloaf will get crushd. Sr has a 800' base, so could be iffy in low elevations, but could get crushd. The other two are a near lock. Yeah... those guys are going to get bombed. Jury is definitely out over this way. We'll be white at the end of it all but how much is the question. BTV already going high POPs. Always have the DGEX for a laugh in the morning... wet snowstorm for CNE/NNE on that second storm with a low over BOS. We get less QPF out this way but it just sort of rots with NW flow enhancement so I bet we could do a bit better than modeled with the NW flow as the storm lifts away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 North of the Mass Pike... lol. Someone at BOX knew who would be reading that in the morning. Even in these areas referenced, there is no real concern of any crippling ice (not that that was seriously being forecasted). But, essentially I think Mass is looking like a whole lotta slop that ends up that will at least leave the ground white. Perhaps this is SNE's grinch storm coming early. With respect to the second system, I think you can flip a coin at this point to say whether it adds to the whitened ground above or washes it all away. Unlike the current system which I think favors the northeastern areas of the Bay State, I suspect the second system will offer the best chances in the traditionally favored areas in the NW.Hopefully, everyone can get an early Christmas present from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 North of the Mass Pike... lol. Someone at BOX knew who would be reading that in the morning. That AFD pretty much sounds like everything some of us were saying all day yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Mike I hope u snow and snow well, mid week storm could be a serious savoy sappling snapper, I'd like to be a bit closer to 2k for that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This is cool...hi-res NAM showing the low level cold hanging on in N MA later Sun AM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This is cool...hi-res NAM showing the low level cold hanging on in N MA later Sun AM: I think it has me at 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This is cool...hi-res NAM showing the low level cold hanging on in N MA later Sun AM: Looks like Ice for my area depending on mid-level temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Mike I hope u snow and snow well, mid week storm could be a serious savoy sappling snapper, I'd like to be a bit closer to 2k for that one Unless you're at 3000', I think you could make that statement for about any event. I actually feel reasonably good for the second one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This looks like one of those deals where it stays near 32 all the way down to HVN on Sunday and mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 fwiw the euro 2-m temps look very similar to the 4km NAM. nice representation of the low level cold hanging on and draining south of out NNE into parts of ORH County and down into the Berks. the one thing - which we just won't know for a while yet - is exactly how long it takes for clouds to move and precip to begin. that'll have an impact in a set-up like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This looks like one of those deals where it stays near 32 all the way down to HVN on Sunday and mon That would be an incredible call, nws has 44 and 47 forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 00z runs def looked like they came in a tick cooler overall. I didn't try to stay up for the later guidance like the Euro. Models definitely keyed in the secondary sfc reflection a bit earlier. Definitely could get interesting as the mid-levels really aren't that warm either at their warmest point. On a side note, the Euro ensembles have a ridiculously strong signal for a storm on Dec 21-22 and then anothe pretty good one on Dec 27-28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 00z runs def looked like they came in a tick cooler overall. I didn't try to stay up for the later guidance like the Euro. Models definitely keyed in the secondary sfc reflection a bit earlier. Definitely could get interesting as the mid-levels really aren't that warm either at their warmest point. On a side note, the Euro ensembles have a ridiculously strong signal for a storm on Dec 21-22 and then anothe pretty good one on Dec 27-28 Yes and thanks for the update, it's nice to get various opinions on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 either way still doesn't look like a *serious* icy situation right now. but still some time to see where and how the axis of precip evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Disappointing trends overnight for us south of the pike dwellers. At least the Euro remains storm through the extended period so even if we get a double rain out we have some snow chances next weekend and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Disappointing trends overnight for us south of the pike dwellers. At least the Euro remains storm through the extended period so even if we get a double rain out we have some snow chances next weekend and beyond. light crust then rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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