weathafella Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 So this seems to be trending better for BOS? Well let's say it's got alot of work to do... NAM would be some snow to rain. GFS is light for system 1 with system 2 too little too late probably. But tons of time to change still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 So this seems to be trending better for BOS? Still have a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Nope. The track is fine. It's just too late. By the time the weak coastal surface low develops, the primary over the UP of Mi has done its job and pumped the 850 zero line to Montreal. The coastal can't cool things too much, it can only really stall the warming by switching the low level flow from southeast to east (maybe even ENE). All we have left then is in situ cold and whatever magic dynamics can muster. I disagree. This is a SWFE....frequently pushing the overall synoptics a few miles makes a huge difference. It's overrunning and 50 miles further south would mean a stronger cold push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GFS not nearly the abortion 18z was thankfully. system 2 seems to be to far east, but lets see if it starts to back west, based on the present models, seems like 2 minor events right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 that Great Lakes low that refuses to die reeks of NINA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Downeast gets a spanking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'll say it again...best meteor show in my lifetime. Get out there, look straight up maybe a slight few degrees east. Holy cow. At least 3 or 4 times multiple distinct meteors falling. Probably just watched 75 in the last 45 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The track of the coastal reflection on the GFS is pretty similar as 18z. The difference is that it is a few mb stronger and develops several hours sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GFS still looks pretty damn warm for here unless I'm missing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I love that another warm SWFE comes right after that ~130 hr storm misses to the east and rips down cold air. pathetic. edit; may have jumped the gun on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The track of the coastal reflection on the GFS is pretty similar as 18z. The difference is that it is a few mb stronger and develops several hours sooner. Which I assume bodes well for the folks in CNE/NNE. WIll that difference bring in stronger mid-level cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I love that another warm SWFE comes right after that ~130 hr storm misses to the east and rips down cold air. pathetic. edit; may have jumped the gun on that. I'm much more interested in what appears to be 1 or maybe 2 threats 12/21-22 and or 12/24-25. Two significant chances I think there JMHO. Will have to see how that evolves. I see nothing of excitement ON THE GFS with these first two pulses. Averaging about 12 meteors per 5 minutes. Many multiples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GEFS certainly west of the op for the larger storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GEFS certainly west of the op for the larger storm next week. Nice rain to snow event seems to be at least somewhat probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Thanks dahlin You've got ten minutes go stick your head outside. What a show. Just reading that NASA identified a second shower that was coinciding with this one...2nd one was good for 30 per hour, existing show 100 or so. Quite the sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Surprised at how much even the euro is moving around inside of 84 hours. The new run is meager on QPF from the "front end thump"... 12z 96h and 0z 84 hr could really not be any different. Euro getting ready to crank up a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Surprised at how much even the euro is moving around inside of 84 hours. I'm not. 3 short waves and timing , spacing, amplification changes have larger changes on final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'm not. 3 short waves and timing , spacing, amplification changes have larger changes on final solution. 108 hr 12z had a low moving away from the cape. That's gone this run, replaced with a low over the WVA/vA border at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This is painful to watch. I have no idea what is going to happen but need to put out a forecast in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This is painful to watch. I have no idea what is going to happen but need to put out a forecast in 3 hours. 108hrs low is over LI roughly, pounding rains over a lot of SNE. Who knows in western MA etc. Looks good up in CNE/NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 120hrs the low is filling over eastern MA. Nuisance cold precip left over the SNE area, still a good storm up north. I didn't look carefully, it does look like warmth sneaks into part of CNE for a time. Toaster bath on I95 with the first system blowing chunks and the second one running up into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Well let's say it's got alot of work to do... NAM would be some snow to rain. GFS is light for system 1 with system 2 too little too late probably. But tons of time to change still. Yeah I've got the feeling it's gonna be yet another cold rainer for Boston. After last winter I'm getting sick and tired of these lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Euro looks like it would have surface temps in the 45-50 range during the height of the second storm in almost all of MA/CT/RI from Hartford to Portsmouth south and east, 40-40 northwest of there with maybe a tiny area of sub 40 up towards MRG land. It's not really even close PER the model. I think frozen is confined pretty far north. For part 1 the euro scours out the cold LL air pretty quickly and doesn't seem to have much QPF? Overall the OP Euro is not our friend JMHO. The euro does have some weird appendage hangback low it tries to develop off Cape Cod. Maybe a savior and then it has the makings of the next torture into stale air already forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 192hrs looks like we have a new storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 192hrs looks like we have a new storm? Models are bouncing around the 21/25 time period. There's going to be a system that redevelops/develops off/near the coast and moves up. That's going to be our chance of a white xmas for many. As a side note the GGEM has totally flopped/flipped too. Totally different at 12z Tue now with a low redeveloping off NJ and critical thicknesses in Canada. Last run we had a low moving away with the ct's moving south through our region. We're going to need lots of movement for these first two to work out in SNE. I have high hopes for the 22nd or 25th event(s)....we'll see. It may end up being one storm earlier in the period but we've been down this road this week and realize dates are TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 BTW the 0z OP Euro blows up the idea of the continental cold moving down and the low hanging well off the left coast. It's make or break with that complex around the 22-25th. Low is moving ashore on the west coast and the high never came down and is pinched into Canada. In a way that's not terrible as once the big low it develops around the 22nd grudges east another wave begins to develop in the deep south. So it's probably running with the 2 storm idea between the 22nd and the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 BTW the 0z OP Euro blows up the idea of the continental cold moving down and the low hanging well off the left coast. It's make or break with that complex around the 22-25th. Low is moving ashore on the west coast and the high never came down and is pinched into Canada. In a way that's not terrible as once the big low it develops around the 22nd grudges east another wave begins to develop in the deep south. So it's probably running with the 2 storm idea between the 22nd and the 25th. Someone's obsessed with Xmas snow. Dude it's December 14. No way to tell what happens in the days before Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 just saw 2 meteors in a row long bright streaks that was awesome!!! also the nam threw 60 looks colder then 0z good trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 You've got ten minutes go stick your head outside. What a show. Just reading that NASA identified a second shower that was coinciding with this one...2nd one was good for 30 per hour, existing show 100 or so. Quite the sight. Too many lights here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Man the ECM looks pretty darn good for NNE... Maine gets absolutely smoked by both storms. Dryslot and Jayhawk shoveling for days. Looks lighter out this way, but still about 3 days of mood snows and wintery precip. We'll take it. 6z GFS continues to look horrific though. Thank god we've been told that's the worst model and to throw its entire package out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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