CT Rain Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'm hoping winds can stay north enough to start as snow here, but you know what, is inevitable for this area. I think we can start as frozen. Yeah might be a bit difficult with the easterly wind at the onset. We'll see though. Cooler MLs would make this so much more exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Re: 12/13/07 the second low developed over VA with high pressure over NW Maine. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2007/us1213.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'm about to call this dead even at 1k pending the GFS and Euro tonight...at least for wave 1. It really looks like ****. I think Ryan is saying the same thing for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yeah might be a bit difficult with the easterly wind at the onset. We'll see though. Cooler MLs would make this so much more exciting. If winds are east, then it will be very tough. Sometimes when we have these highs nose down, Logan is like 360 or 010 and models never get that correct, see Dec 1st. We could have something like that, but impossible to say right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Maybe pull a sloppy inch in Dot? I'll be happy with a trash can topper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 00Z NAM is an ugly freezing rain scenario for W MA, especially parts of the Pioneer Valley and the east slope of the Berkshires. We'd probably get 2-3" of snow, then flip to freezing rain for the heaviest QPF. Freezing rain just doesn't do anything for me. I'd actually rather have rain if I had to choose between the two. It's so close though as the midlevel freezing line halts just above the northern MA border. A slightly stronger CAD signal, and we could get this line to near the Mass Pike. Still some time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 What was the prog for 12/13/07 in this timeframe. If I remeber correctly we were not expecting much up unitl the day it hit. I was working down near the Prudential center that day and it came in like a wall of white. People were shocked. I walked back to Cambridge rather than deal with the #1 Bus down Mass Ave. Traffic was paralyzed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 900mb - 925mb looks really cold on the NAM. If that's right, esp if it's underestimating the cold, there's going to be several hours of IP to ZR on Sun evening north of I-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 if we had the secondary just a bit further south we would be in trouble I love any kind of weather but if theres going to be 2 events I want to be able to track both lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 00Z NAM is an ugly freezing rain scenario for W MA, especially parts of the Pioneer Valley and the east slope of the Berkshires. We'd probably get 2-3" of snow, then flip to freezing rain for the heaviest QPF. Freezing rain just doesn't do anything for me. I'd actually rather have rain if I had to choose between the two. It's so close though as the midlevel freezing line halts just above the northern MA border. A slightly stronger CAD signal, and we could get this line to near the Mass Pike. Still some time... Synoptically it's not too far off, but it still results in sleet contamination getting roughly 100 miles north of the MA/VT border, maybe further. The NAM and other guidance might underestimate the strength of the CAD, but they often miss a sneaky warm layer as well. We cannot rely on CAD alone. We really need to see stronger coastal development, and sooner, south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Note where the SFC low tracks on the NAM: Right along the CT coast. Bring that 50-100mi south and we'd be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This isn't supposed to be a banter thread. We have one for that. I guess that's my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 All snow here as per the NAMster... when does the RUC replacement kick in? 6.2 according to text extraction for you, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Synoptically it's not too far off, but it still results in sleet contamination getting roughly 100 miles north of the MA/VT border, maybe further. The NAM and other guidance might underestimate the strength of the CAD, but they often miss a sneaky warm layer as well. We cannot rely on CAD alone. We really need to see stronger coastal development, and sooner, south of LI. Yeah, a stronger secondary low = more low level cold air draining south and dynamics overwhelming the midlevel warming more. Even with some sleet contamination, it would still be a nice snowfall in CNE and NNE before any changeover as depicted on the 00Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Synoptically it's not too far off, but it still results in sleet contamination getting roughly 100 miles north of the MA/VT border, maybe further. The NAM and other guidance might underestimate the strength of the CAD, but they often miss a sneaky warm layer as well. We cannot rely on CAD alone. We really need to see stronger coastal development, and sooner, south of LI. I might be reading it wrong but it looks like that although the sleet makes it that far N it comes after the bulk of the precip falls as snow. (At least N of the Vt border) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Nice congrats Mt Snow, Killington, Sunapee, Wildcat, Sunday River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Nice congrats Mt Snow, Killington, Sunapee, Wildcat, Sunday River Coming up for a visit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 All snow here as per the NAMster... when does the RUC replacement kick in? You get a period of FZRA/PL from about 72hr onwards...looks like the 0C in the column line makes it somewhere near MHT and it's up around 825mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 You get a period of FZRA/PL from about 72hr onwards...looks like the 0C in the column line makes it somewhere near MHT and it's up around 825mb. I hope you aren't trying to wish undesirable weather upon Dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 You get a period of FZRA/PL from about 72hr onwards...looks like the 0C in the column line makes it somewhere near MHT and it's up around 825mb. For those looking for winter some are going to get a nice little snow cover locked in with a nice sheen of ice. Anyone N of the MA Pike should still be very excited about this storm. edit: and those S of the Pike shouldn't be in despair yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GFS is oh so close to a thumping for interior Mass., but boy is that low position better. Due east of ACY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The GFS looks good for most of Maine. A bit of surface development south of LI like other guidance, but with the primary in Canada the lower mid-levels are going to warm. And there's not appreciable CAA to cool things back down. It seems like forever since there was a really good trend in guidance in the shorter ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 If guidance somehow goes 50 miles south literally millions of people get decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 00z GFS never gets the 0C 850 line north of say MAN-PSM. I'd rather have the models painting that line around or just south of the Pike instead of the MA/NH border. (IMBY comment) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GFS is oh so close to a thumping for interior Mass., but boy is that low position better. Due east of ACY! Am I ready the map right? The secondary low is clearly south of LI.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I might be reading it wrong but it looks like that although the sleet makes it that far N it comes after the bulk of the precip falls as snow. (At least N of the Vt border) Yeah definitely a 3 or 4 - 8 inch snow on the NAM in VT from south to north... very roughly speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 If guidance somehow goes 50 miles south literally millions of people get decent snow. So close. Tomorrow should be an interesting day to watch what unfolds. I'm cautiously optimistic about this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GFS not nearly the abortion 18z was thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 So this seems to be trending better for BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 If guidance somehow goes 50 miles south literally millions of people get decent snow. Nope. The track is fine. It's just too late. By the time the weak coastal surface low develops, the primary over the UP of Mi has done its job and pumped the 850 zero line to Montreal. The coastal can't cool things too much, it can only really stall the warming by switching the low level flow from southeast to east (maybe even ENE). All we have left then is in situ cold and whatever magic dynamics can muster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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