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Dec 16-20 Snow/Mix events - Going over like a fart in church


HoarfrostHubb

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I have to admit its always a comical ride in here...especially during down time. I'm not sure people realize how long 3 days is, nevermind 5-7 days.

There's not much else I can say about this event that I haven't already said. The two key factors to watch are the Quebec high with its associated cold air drain and low dewpoint arctic airmass. How far south that makes it is a big key. It was just 12 days ago, models busted by literally 10F on the sfc temps 24 hours out on a similar high position. It doesn't mean it will happen again, but it has to be watched.

Second, is obviously how amplified the lakes s/w becomes. That will impact how tough the CAD can hold...both in the mid-levels and the low levels.

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For the first time, I actually feel decent about the pattern going forward from next week on...at least a 7-14 day period. I'm not saying expect 30" of snow...but no reason to be crabby.

I think people are just a little jaded after all the piss poor luck and lack of performance from any winter storm over the past nearly two YEARS.

Once we get a solid warning event for much of the region, then I think people will be a little less blah

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Yup. The antecedent cold is so meh, that even if the rare condiitions that can lead to icing events take place, the initial temps have so little room to shift for this to go from early snow to rain.

Yup--people sure are crabby.

there is so much to still be worked out with this initial impulse that it's tuff to commit to much, an initial WWA snow over elevated interior , PERHAPS to the coast, changing to rain on e coast and then primarily snow in east central Nh and interior maine, is what i think it likely right now, with alot of details and areas up for grabs wx wise.

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It's like i can't post my thoughts without seven people jumping on it..or making passive aggressive posts twds me.

Nothing I laid out is extreme or unreasonable for expectations..yet the last 4 pages turned into me defending it

You need to grow a thicker skin and ignore the barbs...

What you posted seems ok.

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I think people are just a little jaded after all the piss poor luck and lack of performance from any winter storm over the past nearly two YEARS.

Once we get a solid warning event for much of the region, then I think people will be a little less blah

Agreed, I think once winter proves to people it still exists everyone will get nice and drunk in celebration.

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Antecent cold??? LOL>.it's a freshly advected cold air mass with ARCTIC origins coming in Saturday and Saturday night..I mean wtf

It is, but how far south it gets is a big deal. We may only get the southenr edge of it. Its very nice air up in NNE.

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15z SREFs got pretty warm. There's a bunch of members that change it over up here but the mean is across CNE in general. Luckily the SREFs are outside their useful range at this point.

The critical thickness/isotherms is for hour 84, and the QPF is hour 87, so the QPF falls after the isotherms get to that location.

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I have to admit its always a comical ride in here...especially during down time. I'm not sure people realize how long 3 days is, nevermind 5-7 days.

There's not much else I can say about this event that I haven't already said. The two key factors to watch are the Quebec high with its associated cold air drain and low dewpoint arctic airmass. How far south that makes it is a big key. It was just 12 days ago, models busted by literally 10F on the sfc temps 24 hours out on a similar high position. It doesn't mean it will happen again, but it has to be watched.

Second, is obviously how amplified the lakes s/w becomes. That will impact how tough the CAD can hold...both in the mid-levels and the low levels.

I have no concerns (for me at least) for Sunday... low expectations, hoping to overachieve

I have major concerns for Weds.

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I think people are just a little jaded after all the piss poor luck and lack of performance from any winter storm over the past nearly two YEARS.

Once we get a solid warning event for much of the region, then I think people will be a little less blah

I get that line of thinking, but even in the end of November, recall us saying that we already could see the Pacific going to crap again, I know I said it several times. At least starting this weekend, things change for the better for maybe 7-14 days, although I don't have the skill to comment much beyond that. Maybe we don't get much other than colder air, but I would take my chances with this.

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