Mr Torchey Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Lol not crabby but if you are going to quote DTs video saying how the block is weak then you should know he posted today how strong it was. He also said the GFS is totally wrong and going 100% Euro Ens. Will do ginsulog. The block is weakening on runs, not strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I dont think anyone is wishing for rain just seeing it how it is But that is the point...you're not seeing it like it is..if you're forecasting rain.. Maybe it's from experience living in the hills..In that setup WITH a secondary..it stays ice. If not then it doesn't. It's just as Will laid out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I think someone said before that the Euro ens actually looked decent. I'm trying to keep those pattern thoughts going forward in the pattern outlook thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Will do ginsulog. The block is weakening on runs, not strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Lol not crabby but if you are going to quote DTs video saying how the block is weak then you should know he posted today how strong it was. He also said the GFS is totally wrong and going 100% Euro Ens. By the way, lets make sure we go back and check whatever JB, Joey L, and all the other forecasters that are quoted here on a daily basis. Lets hold everyone accountable, thats only fair, I think you should head up the task force ginsulog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Your pictures are cute, however models and sensible weather say otherwise.......time will tell, all models have trended further north and warmer, is that because the block is stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 But that is the point...you're not seeing it like it is..if you're forecasting rain.. Maybe it's from experience living in the hills..In that setup WITH a secondary..it stays ice. If not then it doesn't. It's just as Will laid out CT may be hard though. I think the 495 corridor in Mass up through the Monadnocks have the best shot. Just looks a bit mild with an initially easterly wind for places south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Your pictures are cute, however models and sensible weather say otherwise.......time will tell, all models have trended further north and warmer, is that because the block is stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 But that is the point...you're not seeing it like it is..if you're forecasting rain.. Maybe it's from experience living in the hills..In that setup WITH a secondary..it stays ice. If not then it doesn't. It's just as Will laid out One of the main requirements for freezing rain is that it be actually near/below freezing. Thankfully Ryan is here to spread some common sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 ok steve lol, have a good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I'm sure it is but I'm curious thus my question. It's something I've often factored into where I live but in recent decades it hasn't drilled down to microclime...just overall region. eg: I moved back to Boston from LA because I couldn't take the lack of snow anymore after 15 years. I used to live in Southern California - in the Lake Arrowhead area. We got some nice snowstorms, but they could often be few and far between. My wife and I moved out here in Dec 2006. Awful first winter, but safe to say we are not planning on ever moving back...I couldn't do it after living out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 CT may be hard though. I think the 495 corridor in Mass up through the Monadnocks have the best shot. Just looks a bit mild with an initially easterly wind for places south of the Pike. For decent snow yeah I agree..I'm thinking 1-2 of snow here then ice and temps never get above 32. I saw 1 met saying no snow/ice south of W/C Mass..which I don't agree with. I do think though that the cooling trend isn't done yet. Not for great snows south of Pike...but just ice threat. And again I'm not talking huge icestorm.just fairly decent ice event.I think ORH north stays mostly /all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 By the way, lets make sure we go back and check whatever JB, Joey L, and all the other forecasters that are quoted here on a daily basis. Lets hold everyone accountable, thats only fair, I think you should head up the task force ginsulog It's all good. I hope for the sake of Pfizer workers and mental health professionals throughout the northeast that the warmer solutions are wrong. Otherwise they may be working overtime while they sing holiday carols. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 One of the main requirements for freezing rain is that it be actually near/below freezing. Thankfully Ryan is here to spread some common sense. You used to be a knowledgable wx poster.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I am with Phil, looks good going into our Christmas week. Having winter at Christmas time makes the holidays even more special. Perfect timing for the Winter economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 For decent snow yeah I agree..I'm thinking 1-2 of snow here then ice and temps never get above 32. I saw 1 met saying no snow/ice south of W/C Mass..which I don't agree with. I do think though that the cooling trend isn't done yet. Not for great snows south of Pike...but just ice threat. And again I'm not talking huge icestorm.just fairly decent ice event.I think ORH north stays mostly /all snow Well, models seem to have trended warmer so I don't see a cooling trend of note. I see a wintry threat with snow to sleet/ZR over to a cold rain. I think it will actually be a challenge to get much freezing rain and snow may wind up limited. I did notice you have dropped your snowfall expectations from "1-3 or 4" to 1-2 of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You used to be a knowledgable wx poster.. Truth be told I am exhausted from shoveling all your predicted snow this week and therefore am hoping for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 CT may be hard though. I think the 495 corridor in Mass up through the Monadnocks have the best shot. Just looks a bit mild with an initially easterly wind for places south of the Pike. right , he knows this, all the mets have said they are def less confident for tolland then for ORH and esp comp w/ . the Monads . i honestly hope he gets a 31 F ice storm to enjoy, i know i have no real shot of ice where i am in NE mass. and honestly for most of interior NE mass) , unless you get out west of say 495. i wonder if there is much hope that the Mid levels in NE mass stay below 0c into the wee hours mon am, bc i know i have no real shot of icing and the only shot i guess would be for some high rates and cooler mid levels and like a 33-34 snow paste job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 One of the main requirements for freezing rain is that it be actually near/below freezing. Thankfully Ryan is here to spread some common sense. I admit to lol when I read this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Well, models seem to have trended warmer so I don't see a cooling trend of note. I see a wintry threat with snow to sleet/ZR over to a cold rain. I think it will actually be a challenge to get much freezing rain and snow may wind up limited. I did notice you have dropped your snowfall expectations from "1-3 or 4" to 1-2 of snow. NAM and GFS both came in colder as Will and others noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 right , he knows this, all the mets have said they are def less confident for tolland then for ORH and esp comp w/ . the Monads . i honestly hope he gets a 31 F ice storm to enjoy, i know i have no real shot of ice where i am in NE mass. and honestly for most of interior NE mass) , unless you get out west of say 495. i wonder if there is much hope that the Mid levels in NE mass stay below 0c into the wee hours mon am, bc i know i have no real shot of icing and the only shot i guess would be for some high rates and cooler mid levels and like a 33-34 snow paste job Yeah it's possible we work out a nice little thump if things stay juicy and we wind up with a colder push of air prior to the storm. I'm not overly excited about CT for wave 1 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Truth be told I am exhausted from shoveling all your predicted snow this week and therefore am hoping for rain. No I'm serious..You used to be able to sniff out storms, events etc.. Maybe you still can..I don't know. At any rate..hopefully everyone gets what they want/wish for others etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I used to live in Southern California - in the Lake Arrowhead area. We got some nice snowstorms, but they could often be few and far between. My wife and I moved out here in Dec 2006. Awful first winter, but safe to say we are not planning on ever moving back...I couldn't do it after living out here. I came close to moving to Running Springs about 35 years ago but the commuite would have killed me. Then June Lake was possible but in the end I had to follow the work and my natural urban inclination. Amherst looks really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 NAM and GFS both came in colder as Will and others noted Maybe elsewhere... but not here in CT lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 What about GEFS?...they looked decent for next week d6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Maybe elsewhere... but not here in CT lol. We don't see it..but to each their own interp.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I still feel like it won't be as bad as the GFS is portraying No worries Dave. There's the mathmatical/modeled atmosphere and then there is the observable atmosphere. The models will continue to sort the mathmatical atmosphere out over the next few days. As far as the observable atmoshere it's been cold here the past month, it's 29/24 imby currently. Local Wunderground stations will support that the cold has held it's own in the Rt 2 corridor and N the past month. My feeling is that the cold is going to be stronger than the models are indicating at present. There's stormy weather coming into some cold air even if it's not a high parked perfectly to our NW. There is still no doubt in my mind that you and I and a lot of CNE/NNE posters are going to see meaningful frozen precipitation in a few days. How it all unfolds is tbd but it should be some exciting winter wx to track. So sit back and relax and enjoy winter is my motto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 We don't see it..but to each their own interp.. Well... I don't know what you're talking about. Here in CT both the 18z GFS/NAM are pretty unimpressive here in CT. Definitely more room for excitement in NE Mass up through the Monadnocks. 12z to 18z NAM was definitely milder while 12z GFS/18z GFS were equally torcharific here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 No I'm serious..You used to be able to sniff out storms, events etc.. Maybe you still can..I don't know. At any rate..hopefully everyone gets what they want/wish for others etc Mostly because you've done such a great job sniffing out snow and cold threats I am no longer needed. Plus I lost the RUC which was my Ted. This thread and others like it remind me of this scene from Analyze This: http://www.anyclip.com/movies/analyze-this/primo-gets-angry/#!quotes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Decide for yourself which is colder. Top image is 12z NAM at 81hr, bottom image is 18z NAM at 75hr, both valid at 21z SUN. Courtesy PSU Meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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