Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Snow to rain for coast, snow to sleet/zr interior. North of a PWM-CON line it's all snow. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Looks like the GFS hasn't popped a secondary yet by h90...Also look warm as hell even for NNE. Probably still snow for far NNE until h96. Consensus has really converged on a secondary near LI Sunday night. Yeah I'll take any of the past 3 Euro runs please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Well, with this GFS run there's very little ice...more like snow-brief ice-rain for many folks...the NAM supports interior ice significantly more. Right speaking specifically of the model itself it's not even close. It's barely cold enough when precip starts in much of SNE. But we're still talking well beyond 48 hours. Hopefully the high can nose down the cold air. If this were a 1040 high or much closer to us I'd probably agree with those that think we can maintain a cold air drain down into the region. The cold air is already stopped dead before the event really even begins, the high is way north, isn't all that strong and there's no snow for the cold air to flow over on the way south in CNE/NNE unless you live behind a ski resort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yeah I'll take any of the past 3 Euro runs please.... Including the 12z's whiff on the 2nd system, and rain on the first - interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 996 LP around or just SE of the BM and rain to Montreal. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Snow to rain for coast, snow to sleet/zr interior north of the CT border with MA. Rain at 32.3 for CT. North of a PWM-CON line it's all snow. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Snow to rain for coast, snow to sleet/zr interior. North of a PWM-CON line it's all snow. Bet one of the dinners on it? On a side note WTF just happened for Tuesday. Head to Canada aye for sub 0c Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Including the 12z's whiff on the 2nd system, and rain on the first - interesting. Yes lol, I am in central NH for college, 1st system on Euro gives me 6-10" and seconds system barely misses and crushes areas just east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 oh, i thought you were down here in hell with us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yes lol, I am in central NH for college, 1st system on Euro gives me 6-10" and seconds system barely misses and crushes areas just east of me. Can't wait for you to finally witness the sh*tty shadowing effect that you and I both get to enjoy during significant winter events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 oh, i thought you were down here in hell with us Soon! 12/21 I'll be back in hell lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Thats hideous with the follow up storm, just no cold air to tap into at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 "Cold" air all used up by the first wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The secondary reflection near LI is a definite icing issue for the interior hills. You can't use GFS 2m temps for that. Well you can....but then that means you would have missed literally every icing event in the past 5 years. There is still a question of how cold it gets prior to the system moving in. But most guidance has temperatures in the low to mid 20s over the interior by Sunday 12z. That would spell a problem in my eyes for scouring out enough of that to justify temps of 38F or 40F by 00z or 06z Monday. If we lack the ability to cool and advect low dewpoints into the region, then that would mitigate any icing threat into marginal and self-destructing. If a secondary reflection fails to form where shown and ends up further north or west of us, then that would also mitigate any icing potential. But I have to say I cringe when I see posts about GFS 2m temps and icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 What a feedback clusterF the GFS is LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Bet one of the dinners on it? On a d3-5 prog? I already owe you 2 and have no idea when we'll get together for me to pay up. When we're even maybe I'll start betting again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Well I finally had a chance to look at shi - I mean things today.. It's clear what is going on for me - the southern stream component to the main trough amplitude scheduled for that beyond Sun-Mon system has substantially weakened in the ECM, and all but completely vanished in the GFS, across the last couple 3 cycles of runs. That could be legit ... but it could also be the black out period as the impulse passes through the Pacific hole in coverage. I am completely making this up because it is so intuitive sounding, BUT, if that part of the sounding where the southern stream impulse is passing through out over the Pacific is being missed and/or based upon assimilation, that would make sense for attenuation in the ECM and a loss in the GFS. As has occurred many times in the past when the flow is flat'ish coming off the Pacific (for the most part), systems often get lost for sometimes as much as 2 or 3 days before coming back all at once. The Boxing Day blitz last year is a great example of this. We don’t have a nice orderly arrangement of L/W axis in a tall (amplified) undulating configuration. If so, the models would perform much better, for a number of reasons. The primary 2 reasons in the current sort of flat PNA flow, particularly for the GFS, that are most problematic in no certain order, are: 1) The flow is highly perturbed, making the run to run continuity be more like discontinuity. The Euro has been more stable, but is has a vastly superior assessment schematic for data input so it makes a good deal of sense that it would be. Now, it too has shifted some. 2) Data sparseness over the Pacific Oceanic Basin; now, the modelers at NCEP would have you believe that it is not an issue because of the advent of Satellite soundings and sophisticated data assimilation schemes serving to initializing the grids. That's all well and good, but one loses count at how many times a system was hugely morphed in the models, either toward strength or attenuation, fairly abruptly when the governing dynamics finally wended their way over land and into the actual physical sonde data. The end result of all this is that often the GFS will have a big event spanning multiple cycles, then lose it for a day or two or three, only to bring it back. This "could" happen here, but ... I think if the NAO block keeps trending weaker, a more progressive scenario would like take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Well this is fugly again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 DT had a great video a fews days back about this nao block, his feelings were that it would not be nearly as strong as models had indicated early on, that the Scandy block would prevail. Interesting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 "Cold" air all used up by the first wave? That's my biggest fear. If we don't get a developing low running just the right course offshore we've got stale air here. The GFS isn't even close, the 0c line is in Canada for most of the Sunday-Wednesday time period. The "cold" air push stops by later in the afternoon on Saturday on a few of the models, then the retreat begins. The timing the way it is the cold air is already pulling out way in advance of the precip. I'd definitely lean warmer with system 1 at this point in time, but obviously with the caveat we are still a day away from a clear picture. I just don't like the weak cold push prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 On a d3-5 prog? I already owe you 2 and have no idea when we'll get together for me to pay up. When we're even maybe I'll start betting again. I think it's 3. We went double or nothing the second time to get you back to 0 and I won again. I think we settled on 3. I don't plan on eating for days in advance as I think this was an all you can eat AND drink. Side note, I may need to sleep on your couch. j/k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Well this is fugly again... Rain for Lake Placid, snow for NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 DT had a great video a fews days back about this nao block, his feelings were that it would not be nearly as strong as models had indicated early on, that the Scandy block would prevail. Interesting times. Why do you hate cold weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Why do you hate cold weather? Just put him on ignore if he bothers you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Why do you hate cold weather? I love snow, but I prefer to live in reality, and try and figure out what might happen instead of forecasting snow all the time even though that might not be the outcome. You should watch the video, its a good one, goes on to talk about the potential excellent pattern in January for cold and snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Why do you hate cold weather? Did you actually move to Amherst, NH just for the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 damn...and this all looked so good yesterday. The amazing snowless streak for eastern MA continues. In another month and a half it will be 2 full years since last advisory snows in this area. Does anyone know when/if that has ever happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Allsnow turned me on to the video actually, met FMARTIN posted it in the nyc thread its really good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 damn...and this all looked so good yesterday. The amazing snowless streak for eastern MA continues. In another month and a half it will be 2 full years since last advisory snows in this area. Does anyone know when/if that has ever happened? Even if thIs storm is an all Rainer for eastern MA the overall pattern setting up makes me really doubt we go another month and a half without a significant snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Allsnow turned me on to the video actually, met FMARTIN posted it in the nyc thread its really good stuff. DT to his credit was always on the warm bus for the reasons you stated. I'd like to see things break solidly colder at 0z tonight, otherwise the idea of quickly exhausting the "cold" air and being left with 30s to 40s behind it for days and days...is quite a real possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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