SnowMan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Nice I think with the 3 models we can expect southern new hampshire to get plowable snow sunday night and monday morning. safe bet of expecting at least 3-6 inches in the manchester/nashua/ concord nh area. anyone agree or disagree with that assesment? Ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 18z NAM projection of total ice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 NAM keeps it snow here through almost exactly 78 hours. About 4" falls. That is on the higher end of guidance here...well aside form the 12" GGEM solution. Euro is about an inch and so is the GFS...maybe 1-2". A lot of changes though I would expect between now and even tomorrow at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 NAM keeps it snow here through almost exactly 78 hours. About 4" falls. That is on the higher end of guidance here...well aside form the 12" GGEM solution. Euro is about an inch and so is the GFS...maybe 1-2". A lot of changes though I would expect between now and even tomorrow at this time. Play it safe. Think 1-2" for lower elevations, up to a few inches with some elevation and inland. Better chance for those NE. Leave it at that until guidance suggests otherwise and then undoubtedly this turns into another nowcast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Here's the 78hr NAM sounding for the Tolland area. Most of the precipitation has fallen by this point. Although the near-surface temps are above freezing, you can see how the column from about 975-925mb is very close to freezing. Courtesy twisterdata.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Here's the 78hr NAM sounding for the Tolland area. Most of the precipitation has fallen by this point. Although the near-surface temps are above freezing, you can see how the column from about 975-925mb is very close to freezing. Courtesy twisterdata.com liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Play it safe. Think 1-2" for lower elevations, up to a few inches with some elevation and inland. Better chance for those NE. Leave it at that until guidance suggests otherwise and then undoubtedly this turns into another nowcast event. i'm not sure that is safe you said 18z was much better for ne mass but nobody inside 495 see's more than an inch. i'm not sure what models are showing 1-2 for ray's area right now. maybe candaian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 liquid. Liquid and verbatim above freezing up to about 700mb, but it's close for ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Funny to see coastal interps vs interior interps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Good discussion, posted for ye record. Not much discussion of RI and CT SUN INTO MON... AN OVERRUNNING SNOW EVENT APPEARS LIKELY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO S NH. THE COLUMN WILL INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN AS SNOW EVEN ALONG THE COAST...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE ISLANDS WHERE PRECIP WILL PROBABLY BEGIN AS RAIN. HOWEVER...ELY BL WIND WILL WARM THE LOW LEVELS WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP NOT OCCURRING TIL SUN EVENING ACROSS N MA INTO S NH. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LIES WITH WHEN THE HEAVIER QPF WILL FALL...SUNDAY OR MONDAY. ECMWF PLACES MORE EMPHASIS ON MONDAY WAVE WITH HEAVIER QPF DURING THIS TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE HEAVIER QPF DURING SUNDAY WHILE GFS MOVES THE WAVE OUT BY MONDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST ONLY MINOR ACCUM SUNDAY WITH HEAVIER QPF FALLING MOSTLY AS RAIN DURING MONDAY AS ENOUGH WARMING OCCURS EVEN IN THE INTERIOR. GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES ON SUNDAY ACROSS N MA AND S NH WITH MINOR ACCUMS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN FACT...BOTH NAM/GFS SUGGEST BANDING POTENTIAL OVER N MA AND S NH SUN AFTERNOON. BUT OF COURSE WE CANT DISCOUNT THE ECMWF SO WE NEED TO TAKE A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADVSY SNOWFALL FOR N MA AND S NH BUT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 NAM keeps it snow here through almost exactly 78 hours. About 4" falls. That is on the higher end of guidance here...well aside form the 12" GGEM solution. Euro is about an inch and so is the GFS...maybe 1-2". A lot of changes though I would expect between now and even tomorrow at this time. NAM looked half decent in the front end for me as well with the high draining northerly component I would think. A few inches and then dry slot verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 NAM looked half decent in the front end for me as well with the high draining northerly component I would think. A few inches and then dry slot verbatim. How much stock can we put in the NAM at that range though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Liquid and verbatim above freezing up to about 700mb, but it's close for ZR. Definitely liquid. 925mb is close to freezing, so maybe it could be a hill top icing threat per this run. Still seems too warm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 How much stock can we put in the NAM at that range though? Not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Funny to see coastal interps vs interior interps box disco says GL in CT and RI 32.5-34 rain is on the table for the rev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 to me gfs looks colder than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 gfs coming in a tad colder so far precip is also faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 to me gfs looks colder than 12z Yes and like the earlier NAM at 18z it's also less moist panel for panel in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 most of southern new england torches after some front end snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 most of southern new england torches after some front end snow I wouldn't say SNE torches...probably M-U30s coast, ice distincly possible interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I wouldn't say SNE torches...probably M-U30s coast, ice distincly possible interior. Yea especially with light easterly breezes which inland will be nill, model looking more like a front end 1-3 for North of the Pike then siggy glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 looks like higher qpf question is for southern Nh do we stay all snow or get ice on top of snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 most of southern new england torches after some front end snow 2-10m temps aren't any better. It's not even all that close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yea especially with light easterly breezes which inland will be nill, model looking more like a front end 1-3 for North of the Pike then siggy glaze. The air in place isn't that cold to begin with...it's not like we're locking in teens or low 20s against the ocean breezes. It's borderline air even Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Looks like the GFS hasn't popped a secondary yet by h90...Also look warm as hell even for NNE. Probably still snow for far NNE until h96. Consensus has really converged on a secondary near LI Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Seems like icing potential is low but I guess im not seeing what some others are. The air in place isn't that cold to begin with...it's not like we're locking in teens or low 20s against the ocean breezes. It's borderline air even Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Seems like icing potential is low but I guess im not seeing what some others are. Well, with this GFS run there's very little ice...more like snow-brief ice-rain for many folks...the NAM supports interior ice significantly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 by hr102 the 12zgfs and 18z gfs are so far apart its almost not even worth looking at models yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Snow to rain for coast, snow to sleet/zr interior. North of a PWM-CON line it's all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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