ChrisM Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 18z is colder than 12z, but less precip. 21z 850 freezing line is basically halfway north through CT. All areas above 32F at 2m. it looks pretty terrible honestly FOR HERE. everything after that is rain for all of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Ec looks to have me 12+ with first system alone. I'll believe that when i see it. Although it will keep my midnight shifts interesting. Your going to have your hands full with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Great run for VT, NH and ME. Probably talking at least another 0.25-0.50"+ qpf after the run is over for NH/ME as the secondary low gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The 546dm line never gets north of DXR-HFD-IJD, while on the Euro for example that line made it all the way to CEF-ORH. NAM SFC low is just a hair southeast of Montauk Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Good news and we can't say we're surprised at colder trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 weenie maps from the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Ec looks to have me 12+ with first system alone. I'll believe that when i see it. EC ens are a little less, but still solid amounts for the CWA for storm 1. There's over 2.5" of liquid here for the week and we follow it up with a cold Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Good trends for NE MASS. Ray's area FTW? Would like to see it trend a tick or two colder, but it's not bad for a 2-4" thump to rain here on the CP north of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 weenie maps from the nam LOL those maps are so weenie its not even funny. Looks decent for most of NNE though. SV algorithms shows 2-6" for most of NNE with precip continuing as the run ends..you can probably add 2-4" on top of that for eastern VT and NH...and probably 3-6" for ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The 546dm line never gets north of DXR-HFD-IJD, while on the Euro for example that line made it all the way to CEF-ORH. NAM SFC low is just a hair southeast of Montauk Point. I guess I missed something? why does it matter that 546 dm doesn't get north of that line when the 850 mb temps torch all the way into VT and NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 From what Blizz chimed in with, there was already snow on the ground before the event, so that probably helped. IJD got stuck at 37, but that's a valley. What's your elevation? I'm at about 650'. I tend to warm up pretty easily on southerly winds. We had 12" OTG that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 That was definitely a colder run vs 12z on the NAM. CAD held a bit more stout that run. You can see the more northerly ageo flow this run in the 10m streamlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I guess I missed something? Verbatim it still looks crappy for CT. Looks better for interior Mass though, especially toward Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Your going to have your hands full with this one the more action, the better. Would be pretty unreal to have a 2 foot snowpack for xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 it looks pretty terrible honestly FOR HERE. everything after that is rain for all of CT. Nah, you'd be better off then you think ... well, I'm thinking you might be icy - I'm sure you'd rather have snow, but all else being unfair the boundary layer is probably colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I guess I missed something? It trended colder...just not enough for your area. It helps out interior MA though...but this is just a snap shot in time. The verbatim solutions mean relatively little right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 It trended colder...just not enough for your area. It helps out interior MA though...but this is just a snap shot in time. The verbatim solutions mean relatively little right now. not what I meant, my post got cut off. I fixed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 the more action, the better. Would be pretty unreal to have a 2 foot snowpack for xmas. Yeah, Thease qpf amounts getting spit out of some of these models are incredible, Verbatim, 2' would not be out of the question, The ski areas would be rocking christmas week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Nice I think with the 3 models we can expect southern new hampshire to get plowable snow sunday night and monday morning. safe bet of expecting at least 3-6 inches in the manchester/nashua/ concord nh area. anyone agree or disagree with that assesment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I guess I missed something? why does it matter that 546 dm doesn't get north of that line when the 850 mb temps torch all the way into VT and NH? My point was that the thermal profile is cooling and along the CT/MA border, 2m temps never get above the mid-30's and if that trend continues and/or the CAD is underestimated, it could be real messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Verbatim it still looks crappy for CT. Looks better for interior Mass though, especially toward Ray. Agreed. If this trends colder and not less favorable, then I think Ray and I can score pretty well with this first impulse. (2-4", spot 5") GFS much warmer is concerning and I am not sure what the EURO said. For now, I'd go 1-3" from a line north of Tolland - N PVD - Easton - BOS. South of there less. Then to rain by the MA/NH border (holds onto snow longest the further NE you are) 3-6" (highest interior SE NH through ME) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I guess I missed something? why does it matter that 546 dm doesn't get north of that line when the 850 mb temps torch all the way into VT and NH? Hiuh? It keeps all of interior CT below 32. We're only gonna get 1-3 of snow here then ice. ORH north will get mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Nice I think with the 3 models we can expect southern new hampshire to get plowable snow sunday night and monday morning. safe bet of expecting at least 3-6 inches in the manchester/nashua/ concord nh area. anyone agree or disagree with that assesment? Disagree. Nothing is really a safe bet right now except that you will probably get some form of precipitation between Sunday mornign and Monday night. 3-6" doesn't look like a horrendous educated guess at this point for this area outlined, but I would not expect it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Hiuh? It keeps all of interior CT below 32. We're only gonna get 1-3 of snow here then ice. ORH north will get mostly snow Could easily see that. Or more like getting through the majority of the event as mostly snow before tapering as light RN/FRZ as the milder midlevels take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Looks like we're finally beginning to reach (somewhat) of a consensus for wave 1. What happens afterwards is still completely up in the air at this point. Just look at the difference between the 87h ARW2 and NMM4 at 500 mb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Hiuh? It keeps all of interior CT below 32. We're only gonna get 1-3 of snow here then ice. ORH north will get mostly snow Sorry forgot people were cheering on ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Nice I think with the 3 models we can expect southern new hampshire to get plowable snow sunday night and monday morning. safe bet of expecting at least 3-6 inches in the manchester/nashua/ concord nh area. anyone agree or disagree with that assesment? I would say no, mid levels r too questionable at this point, esp for nashua. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Despite the cold 850s, the NAM gets near 0C here in the 775-800mb layer at 84hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Good trends for NE MASS. Ray's area FTW? Would like to see it trend a tick or two colder, but it's not bad for a 2-4" thump to rain here on the CP north of the Pike. It's a 78 hour NAM prog. It's like the NGM at any range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Sorry forgot people were cheering on ice Honestly, I think the ageo northerly component should keep the surface like 31-34 in NW and NE CT...but to say its below 32F in all of northern CT is not a good assumption (not you, lol). We will see a ton of minute changes over the next 84 hours so its not worth over analyzing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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