CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Those 925mb temps can always be a red flag...also when you see the thicknesses not warm very much despite the mid-levels warming. That also seems to be a red flag. You'll sometimes see the models (esp a high res one like the Euro) show -3C 925mb temps while the sfc is like 35F in a CAD setup. That's usually when you toss the 2m temps. Also you often see the models try and turn the wind too much out of the east too early on. It probably happens in at least 90% of our CAD setups with a high north of Maine. Its like they can't differentiate between a Quebec high and a high moving east through Nova Scotia. But regardless, I'm sure we'll see some changes to the exact setup more than once. Yeah I like the 925mb look for you guys and north. That was also a little evident in the nice Dec 1 snow I had. It's not very low level, but low enough to raise a flag like you said. I don't mean to troll Kevin, but I could see him rising a bit above 32 while you rot near or below freezing. Just simply latitude issues here, that's all. We'll probably see changes going forward, but I always like the look of high pressure nosing in like that. Sometimes it "overachieves" with that look for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 As modeled, euro 925mb temps to -6C or so near ORH Sunday morning. Temps below 30 or so. I don't see how it warms that much from there on north during the day and even for Monday morning. Perhaps maybe in the aftn they rot at 33 or so. It could change if we see a strong low move west or develop in NJ and not south of LI, but just speaking of the whole situation verbatim. CAD can be a beautiful thing... I really would not mind punting this one away and getting colder air later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 yeah i'm not sure there's many different opinions being thrown around right now. pretty consistent across the board. Well let's be clear, I don't think many red taggers are expecting as much snow as Kevin is for this first event correct? Lolli's to 4" Sunday? Long term you have to be excited. If we got another series of systems like these next 2-3 after the 20th it'll be a lot of fun with some real cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 So are generally thinking 1-3 of snow maybe 4 ORH north then ice as concensus for interior SNE? That 4 might be hard to come by... I would go 1-2 with maybe 3 further north... a little ice, but not copious amounts (just on what I saw this afternoon...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro ensembles have a low near the BM at hr 144. That's probably mix to snow for interior and then eventually coast, but I don't see lower level profiles on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Well let's be clear, I don't think many red taggers are expecting as much snow as Kevin is for this first event correct? Lolli's to 4" Sunday? Long term you have to be excited. If we got another series of systems like these next 2-3 after the 20th it'll be a lot of fun with some real cold air around. no i think the official forecast was feet and feet, snowpack like 1971, snow for days and days. lots of nudity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro ensembles have a low near the BM at hr 144. That's probably mix to snow for interior and then eventually coast, but I don't see lower level profiles on the ensembles. what do they show for wave 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Pattern is exciting, minus focusing on just one singular storm. I would be shocked to come out of December without snowfall to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Do you recall January 15th, 2001? I've actually been looking at this analog pretty closely. Main low into Michigan, redevelopment just south of SNE. http://www.meteo.psu...2001/us0115.php That event did produce accumulating snow across interior Mass. and northern Rhode Island, but the PNS didn't have totals for Conn. I dug up the ASOS temps...DXR got stuck at 35F and BDL only 34F with a period of icing. The only minor difference was that the positioning high pressure was a bit more favored, as the surface wind reflection was NE to N on the obs, versus E to NE as we are expecting to see. http://mesonet.agron...&month=1&day=15 Yeah actually I do remember that one. I didn't recall the date until I saw your analog. This is not too dissimilar. I think this high might be progged a little stronger. What that event had going for it was snowcover OTg and later in season. That storm was supposed to be snow and I remember Walt Drag changing that to icestorm warning that morning in the AFD. I think it was a Saturday If that is an analog, Stafford, CT had 2.5" from that. I don't have any notes (I just kept track of the numbers during that time) but the high was 40°. We had good snow cover that winter - close to 3' in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 If that is an analog, Stafford, CT had 2.5" from that. I don't have any notes (I just kept track of the numbers during that time) but the high was 40°. We had good snow cover that winter - close to 3' in March. From what Blizz chimed in with, there was already snow on the ground before the event, so that probably helped. IJD got stuck at 37, but that's a valley. What's your elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 WOW...just getting back in now. The EURO had no snow verbatim anywhere in SNE or even southern CNE? That's what it looked like to me anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 18z coming in a tick colder at 850mb and 2m through 45hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 18z coming in a tick colder at 850mb and 2m through 45hrs. 12z 18z very slight, not sure it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro ensembles have a low near the BM at hr 144. That's probably mix to snow for interior and then eventually coast, but I don't see lower level profiles on the ensembles. Pretty sweet run for up here. 3 legit snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 no i think the official forecast was feet and feet, snowpack like 1971, snow for days and days. lots of nudity. That was last Tuesday. Nob of moisture is further south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Pretty sweet run for up here. 3 legit snow chances. Congrats.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro ensembles have a low near the BM at hr 144. That's probably mix to snow for interior and then eventually coast, but I don't see lower level profiles on the ensembles. Only in this 2 year stetch can I have a major low on the benchmark near the winter solstice, and still get mainly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I guess this run looks a little better. The primary is further west though, wonder if that will affect it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 NAM is going to show at least a good front end thump this run verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I guess this run looks a little better. The primary is further west though, wonder if that will affect it? To be honest...its better to have the primary cut waaaaay west, if you have a triple point run s.....the mid level warm punch is more displaced to the west, as was the case in 12/16/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yeah it's cooler but it's subsequently less moist as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Pretty sweet run for up here. 3 legit snow chances. Ec looks to have me 12+ with first system alone. I'll believe that when i see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 To be honest...its better to have the primary cut waaaaay west, if you have a triple point run s.....the mid level warm punch is more displaced to the west, as was the case in 12/16/07. That's what I was thinking...this run illustrates that well so far. You see the ML punch confined mostly to the OH valley/PA/WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Pretty sweet run for up here. 3 legit snow chances. How do they ENS look Sun-Mon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Looks real good verbatim! Although it will keep my midnight shifts interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 That's what I was thinking...this run illustrates that well so far. You see the ML punch confined mostly to the OH valley/PA/WNY Expanding area of moisture at 72 hours though for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Expanding area of moisture at 72 hours though for sure. yeah, although it looks like CT is about to torch lol. You should accept my friend req! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 18z is colder than 12z, but less precip. 21z 850 freezing line is basically halfway north through CT. All areas above 32F at 2m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 That was definitely a colder run vs 12z on the NAM. CAD held a bit more stout that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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