danstorm Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 This one really isn't "there" yet...lol, which is why it may actually pan out. We'll see. GFS has it as well. System pops off the SE coast but misses wide right. Huge high pressure just a bit too far east into the continental US. But it's 10 days away. I think we'll either be involved in a storm or will be watching one miss SE on Xmas eve. I probably missed it... but are you Messeger/cweat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Thankfully we have a group of mets offering vastly different solutions for the Sunday snow/ ice event There's a lot of confusion sometimes about what a model is "showing" versus what is most likely or what the met might actually think is going to happen. I think a lot of people on the forums love to take a huge stock in the verbatim model solutions. Its easy for weenies to get wrapped up in a solution and say "well there it is!!" and we are 102 hours out. But as I was saying yesterday when the Euro ensembles were showing a parade of snowstorms through SNE...have to remember how much can change both because it was still 4-7 days out and also because the whole setup with these shortwaves is pretty complex and tedious. I think most of the ideas that were thrown around about 2-3 days ago are still pretty valid....we might get snow, even a decent amount, but I think you would favor northern areas at the moment for the highest chances of that. We said watch for ice in the interior too. That is certainly in play. It could end up being mostly rain as well. We just don't know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 the euro wouldn't have to trend *that* much colder to get snow down into ORH county and other sections of northern MA / S NH with the system on monday. as is the mid-level warming comes to a dead stop in C/S NH. if it ticked a couple of notches colder hubbdave would be shoveling instead of skating. I am trying to decide...would I rather have ice or snow... I am leaning more ice than snow. Would love to experience a crippling ice storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 If the Euro ticks a notch or 2 colder instead of just ice in the hills in CT/ Ri we could also have ice in the valley down to HVN. Remember folks,, you secondary a low in that position trend your final ideas / outcomes colder. If the euro ramps up qpf to GFS/nam levels many if us have sig power issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I am trying to decide...would I rather have ice or snow... I am leaning more ice than snow. Would love to experience a crippling ice storm... No thanks here, once was enough. Living through the 1998 one makes me shy away from liking them anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 There's a lot of confusion sometimes about what a model is "showing" versus what is most likely or what the met might actually think is going to happen. I think a lot of people on the forums love to take a huge stock in the verbatim model solutions. Its easy for weenies to get wrapped up in a solution and say "well there it is!!" and we are 102 hours out. But as I was saying yesterday when the Euro ensembles were showing a parade of snowstorms through SNE...have to remember how much can change both because it was still 4-7 days out and also because the whole setup with these shortwaves is pretty complex and tedious. I think most of the ideas that were thrown around about 2-3 days ago are still pretty valid....we might get snow, even a decent amount, but I think you would favor northern areas at the moment for the highest chances of that. We said watch for ice in the interior too. That is certainly in play. It could end up being mostly rain as well. We just don't know yet. Yeah several of us have thought ice was the bigger issue with this days ago. I recall you and I discussing that some modeling had the classic ice signal like 3-4 days ago. Of course We would rather snow but snow to ice is fun too. Will be fun to watch things evolve the next 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 yeah that's a good look. i'm not sold on much happening through mid-week in most of SNE - but i'll take a meh next 5+ or so days to get to that pattern from the 20th onward. agree you usually are pretty accurate and although i wish you were more gung ho on sne thru mid week. it is what it is. nobody in sne should be locking in snow outside of perhaps a D-1 sunday IMO. too many short waves making model runs very changeable and a meh airmass outside of cne/nne sun/mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Is it me or does the day 10 euro have a cold and dry look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 If the Euro ticks a notch or 2 colder instead of just ice in the hills in CT/ Ri we could also have ice in the valley down to HVN. Remember folks,, you secondary a low in that position trend your final ideas / outcomes colder. If the euro ramps up qpf to GFS/nam levels many if us have sig power issues If you lost power and could post for a few days, that would be just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yea, it wouldn't take huge adjustment to snow, but its trending in the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Is it me or does the day 10 euro have a cold and dry look? Verbatim yes, but like the GFS it's developing a low offshore. Big cold pool over the Ohio Valley, low developing in response out east of the Carolinas. With a cold source close finally the 22-26th period may get it done. We'll see. This period of time IMBY is of much more interest to me than this muddy 5 days of precip with marginal/mild air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yeah several of us have thought ice was the bigger issue with this days ago. I recall you and I discussing that some modeling had the classic ice signal like 3-4 days ago. Of course We would rather snow but snow to ice is fun too. Will be fun to watch things evolve the next 2 days I am confused, from 3-5 days of continuous snow to ice? Just this morning it was snow....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I am trying to decide...would I rather have ice or snow... I am leaning more ice than snow. Would love to experience a crippling ice storm... i don't know that crippling is really in the cards but it doesn't take much ice to cause some problems. it's not a perfect set-up to get ice but it's a pretty good look with that low level cold building in on saturday. we'll have to see just how dry/cold it is. i think what we're lacking right now is the continuous feed/drain south - but it's there for a time. and as Will was saying the dense low level cold is often modeled pretty poorly so where you might be seeing 36 or 37F by monday PM near ORH for example might be more like 31 / 32F with a light N wind. kind of just speculation right now but that's at least how things look based on the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yeah several of us have thought ice was the bigger issue with this days ago. I recall you and I discussing that some modeling had the classic ice signal like 3-4 days ago. Of course We would rather snow but snow to ice is fun too. Will be fun to watch things evolve the next 2 days Do you recall January 15th, 2001? I've actually been looking at this analog pretty closely. Main low into Michigan, redevelopment just south of SNE. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2001/us0115.php That event did produce accumulating snow across interior Mass. and northern Rhode Island, but the PNS didn't have totals for Conn. I dug up the ASOS temps...DXR got stuck at 35F and BDL only 34F with a period of icing. The only minor difference was that the positioning high pressure was a bit more favored, as the surface wind reflection was NE to N on the obs, versus E to NE as we are expecting to see. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/obhistory.php?station=BDL&network=CT_ASOS&year=2001&month=1&day=15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I am trying to decide...would I rather have ice or snow... I am leaning more ice than snow. Would love to experience a crippling ice storm... The 2008 Icestorm gave me no power for 13 days (On Generator) and no phone service for a month. Was cool to experience but the aftermath sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yeah several of us have thought ice was the bigger issue with this days ago. I recall you and I discussing that some modeling had the classic ice signal like 3-4 days ago. Of course We would rather snow but snow to ice is fun too. Will be fun to watch things evolve the next 2 days I think everyone is on the same page though. I don't see any differing opinions....we all are aware of the complicated issues at stake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I probably missed it... but are you Messeger/cweat? Not to give him away but yes to answer your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You would need a lot more QPF than what is modeled to get a crippling ice storm anyway. Icing in this setup would cause some issues, but nothing compared to the 2008 ice storm. That was the worst ice storm in interior MA in 44 years...so we should keep things in perspective. There was like 3" of qpf modeled as ZR for that one. An inch of QPF that starts as weenie snow and then perhaps to icing for a time won't cause trees to start toppling over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Hopefully the ens are better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You know, another way to view this is having whatever happens set us up down the road. I like what I see afterwards for a good 7-14 days anyways. I won't lose sleep if I rain because going forward looks pretty decent IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Do you recall January 15th, 2001? I've actually been looking at this analog pretty closely. Main low into Michigan, redevelopment just south of SNE. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2001/us0115.php That event did produce accumulating snow across interior Mass. and northern Rhode Island, but the PNS didn't have totals for Conn. I dug up the ASOS temps...DXR got stuck at 35F and BDL only 34F with a period of icing. The only minor difference was that the positioning high pressure was a bit more favored, as the surface wind reflection was NE to N on the obs, versus E to NE as we are expecting to see. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/obhistory.php?station=BDL&network=CT_ASOS&year=2001&month=1&day=15 Yeah actually I do remember that one. I didn't recall the date until I saw your analog. This is not too dissimilar. I think this high might be progged a little stronger. What that event had going for it was snowcover OTg and later in season. That storm was supposed to be snow and I remember Walt Drag changing that to icestorm warning that morning in the AFD. I think it was a Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I think everyone is on the same page though. I don't see any differing opinions....we all are aware of the complicated issues at stake. yeah i'm not sure there's many different opinions being thrown around right now. pretty consistent across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You know, another way to view this is having whatever happens set us up down the road. I like what I see afterwards for a good 7-14 days anyways. I won't lose sleep if I rain because going forward looks pretty decent IMHO. I hear what you and other are saying in this regard...but I always feel like we are "looking down the road"....getting kinda old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Do you recall January 15th, 2001? I've actually been looking at this analog pretty closely. Main low into Michigan, redevelopment just south of SNE. http://www.meteo.psu...2001/us0115.php That event did produce accumulating snow across interior Mass. and northern Rhode Island, but the PNS didn't have totals for Conn. I dug up the ASOS temps...DXR got stuck at 35F and BDL only 34F with a period of icing. The only minor difference was that the positioning high pressure was a bit more favored, as the surface wind reflection was NE to N on the obs, versus E to NE as we are expecting to see. http://mesonet.agron...&month=1&day=15 that site shows bos only receiving .14 of precip on the date, isn't this supposed to be a bit more, or has it really become a nuisance thing in your opinion edit nmind i'm wrong .33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 As modeled, euro 925mb temps to -6C or so near ORH Sunday morning. Temps below 30 or so. I don't see how it warms that much from there on north during the day and even for Monday morning. Perhaps maybe in the aftn they rot at 33 or so. It could change if we see a strong low move west or develop in NJ and not south of LI, but just speaking of the whole situation verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 So are generally thinking 1-3 of snow maybe 4 ORH north then ice as concensus for interior SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 So are generally thinking 1-3 of snow maybe 4 ORH north then ice as concensus for interior SNE? or Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I hear what you and other are saying in this regard...but I always feel like we are "looking down the road"....getting kinda old. I feel this is different and this week coming up is proof. Virtually all models have much better chances for wintry precip after whatever happens next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 As modeled, euro 925mb temps to -6C or so near ORH Sunday morning. Temps below 30 or so. I don't see how it warms that much from there on north during the day and even for Monday morning. Perhaps maybe in the aftn they rot at 33 or so. It could change if we see a strong low move west or develop in NJ and not south of LI, but just speaking of the whole situation verbatim. Those 925mb temps can always be a red flag...also when you see the thicknesses not warm very much despite the mid-levels warming. That also seems to be a red flag. You'll sometimes see the models (esp a high res one like the Euro) show -3C 925mb temps while the sfc is like 35F in a CAD setup. That's usually when you toss the 2m temps. Also you often see the models try and turn the wind too much out of the east too early on. It probably happens in at least 90% of our CAD setups with a high north of Maine. Its like they can't differentiate between a Quebec high and a high moving east through Nova Scotia. But regardless, I'm sure we'll see some changes to the exact setup more than once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 If ice vs rain, I'll take rain every time. I have been in crippling ice and don't want it. D10 establishes cross polar so I suspect just beyond that period there's quite the delivery into Canada and parts of the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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