danstorm Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro keeps primary stronger, longer vs. 00Z. Only at h108 do we see a broad surface reflection ... 00z was 6 hrs. faster with the secondary development, further south, and had a tighter center of LP. That helped to lock in the cold air and keep the N component of the wind... this latest run is warmer and doesn't get its act together in time. Can't toss it, but I'd imagine a more notable surface reflection with the blocking to the NE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 How is it up here? On the cell and have little time to analyze. Good, looks like .75" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 With that cold high drain and secondary I don't think so. Wanna wager? I just think you may rot at like 32.5 after some ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 euro is going to bomb the second low (pickles - hr 144, wed 12/19 at 12z) but maybe too little too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Told you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Nice offshore low on the euro, but the lower levels are pretty mild below 850mb. They do cool as it develops offshore though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro at 144hr light snow PHL, NYC, BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Bl an issue for much of sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I just think you may rot at like 32.5 after some ice. Possible I guess. But I like my chances of like 30-31. I'd bet we see the next 2 euro runs cool substantially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Nice offshore low on the euro, but the lower levels are pretty mild below 850mb. They do cool as it develops offshore though. Eh....just seems like a long shot. Will it go OTS...if not, it may be too warm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro at 144hr light snow PHL, NYC, BOS. Very much on the same idea of the GFS with a low that takes time to develop before finally gathering itself well offshore. Not a terrible solution at this range all things considered it's still a day 6 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Bl an issue for much of sne. yeah it's "mild". and pretty much just a big windstorm anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Good snowstorm for Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Possible I guess. But I like my chances of like 30-31. I'd bet we see the next 2 euro runs cool substantially I was commenting more on this run specifically. If it cools or goes south, then I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Looks like Maine makes out really well with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 This reminds me of the Boxing day threads a lot. Windshield wipers. Ton of time before taking any of the runs seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Looks like the system will help us long term either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 This pattern is higly bizzare. Blocking to the north, trough into the west, short wavelenghts...kind of crazy and models certainly aren't close to resolving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 i'm somwhat suprised at how tightly packed those isobars are over ontario hr 72 and how stout that southerly flow ahead of a weakening 1004 mb lp. i may be over my head, but does that look like it could be overdone a bit. i would think isobars would be allligned more wnw/ese but not sse/nnw. with that high and a weak lp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Absolutely ridiculous that a 980mb low rolls by and we STILL cannot drag the 0c 8h line south of New England after it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I don't think it will take much for the GFS to phase earler to get closer to the Euro solution. Pretty happy where I am right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I don't think it will take much for the GFS to phase earler to get closer to the Euro solution. Pretty happy where I am right now. The north country/ski country should have a very productive next 3-10 days. Whether it's epic or not remains to be seen but it'll be a great ski week Xmas vacation this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I was commenting more on this run specifically. If it cools or goes south, then I agree. What happened for my neck? I'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Incoming again on the euro at hr 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 the first wave ruins this deal as things are currently modeled. some light snow/fzdz/fzrn for c/n MA on sunday PM / night / monday am. that system uses up the good cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Is system 2 good here too? Or only the mountains of Maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Incoming again on the euro at hr 180. yep. that should turn out nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 This reminds me of the Boxing day threads a lot. Windshield wipers. Ton of time before taking any of the runs seriously This - I mentioned the exact same thing in an earlier thread. It bears repeating that these events are 4-6 days out, respectively... we've seen threats disappear or surprises develop within 48 hours, sometimes 24. When was the last time a D6 prog verified verbatim??? Go out and buy some kosher salt, folks... the coarse ground kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 the first wave ruins this deal as things are currently modeled. some light snow/fzdz/fzrn for c/n MA on sunday PM / night / monday am. that system uses up the good cold. It taints the area from like 2-4k and with one wave after another...it doesn't have enough time to recover as modeled. The way we could, is perhaps have that first and second impulse crap the bed and then bomb the third near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 yeah it's "mild". and pretty much just a big windstorm anyway. through 180 hours we can barely get the 0c 8h out from overhead. We're trapped in perpetual stale mud air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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