40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I'll be surprised if icing is a real issue anywhere in SNE. But we'll see, JMHO. I would not at all. If you get a secondary scooting s of sne with a high over Quebec..I'd be shocked if it weren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I would not at all. If you get a secondary scooting s of sne with a high over Quebec..I'd be shocked if it weren't. Yup. As long as that secondary pops south of BID, the entire interior will stay AOB 32 and ESP the hills. Fun stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS is sort of delayed but not denied in the long range. hopefully it has the right idea with long-wave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I'm honing in on a Norlun. All I need to see is the ensemble runs, then I'm going to do a Flash Gordon jump for joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yup. As long as that secondary pops south of BID, the entire interior will stay AOB 32 and ESP the hills. Fun stuff Assuming we get a good enough push of arctic, low dewpoint air just prior to this. Most guidance does push this boundary sufficiently far enough south to where we are well down into the low or mid 20s come Sunday morning...but its not a lock yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yup. As long as that secondary pops south of BID, the entire interior will stay AOB 32 and ESP the hills. Fun stuff As of right now there's pretty good consensus that this is going to occur (the redevelopment). If that trend holds obviously it's a valid concern but we're still 3+ days away and the models have been inconsistent to say the least to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GGEM much flatter on wave at 150 hours.... not nearly as dramatic 1005mb well offshore with lower pressures trailing back into the lakes system. Probably bombs it in later panels. Different, slower evolution than the GFS. Yet another different solution from a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Assuming we get a good enough push of arctic, low dewpoint air just prior to this. Most guidance does push this boundary sufficiently far enough south to where we are well down into the low or mid 20s come Sunday morning...but its not a lock yet. Would the icing extend to north of the Mass boarder to my area in SNH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GGEM is another snow bomb for SNE...its loving this idea for whatever reason...3rd run in a row. Main show is on Sunday night into Monday morning on GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Would the icing extend to north of the Mass boarder to my area in SNH? Impossible to know at this point. Icing may not be a problem at all if the mid-levels end up holding tougher. Or, the whole thing could end up well west and its mostly rain. I think the latter solution is leats likely given the high location/blocking in Quebec....but its not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Looks good for CNE yet again on the GGEM. Feel pretty good about advisory snow here down to maybe Will...gets more questionable around that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Looks good for CNE yet again on the GGEM. Feel pretty good about advisory snow here down to maybe Will...gets more questionable around that area. yeah i'd be surprised if you didn't do decently well up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GGEM is another snow bomb for SNE...its loving this idea for whatever reason...3rd run in a row. Main show is on Sunday night into Monday morning on GGEM. ? rain/snow line looks near 495? Or nw (per 12z run) I thought It lookd like rain outside n orh hills nw. I was hoping to see rays area smoked when u said "sne snowbomb" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 What about UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I don't think we are in a bad spot for this one I don't think you've been in a bad spot for the last several days. I'll be surprised if icing is a real issue anywhere in SNE. But we'll see, JMHO. I agree. Severe icing is such a rarity. Of course, that's not reason to conclude that it won't happen. But to get it of substance requires everything to hit just right (or wrong for those of us who want snow). Regardless, I'm sure how things are modeled now will undergo many changes over the next too many hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 rain/snow line looks near 495? Or se (per 12z run) There would likely be quite a bit of snow east of there as well. Don't take those collaboration precip type maps too seriously. A CF probably would eventually develop somewhere...but heavy precip with mid-levels cold enough for a good chunk of SNE would mean probably some good snow...at least away from the immediate coastline. Its just one solution though, so take with grains of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GGEM is another snow bomb for SNE...its loving this idea for whatever reason...3rd run in a row. Main show is on Sunday night into Monday morning on GGEM. Maybe it....nah....couldn't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I don't think you've been in a bad spot for the last several days. I agree. Severe icing is such a rarity. Of course, that's not reason to conclude that it won't happen. But to get it of substance requires everything to hit just right (or wrong for those of us who want snow). Regardless, I'm sure how things are modeled now will undergo many changes over the next too many hours. Yeah, I think it ends up being a shriveled mess or a more robust deal like the GGEM. Not buying the icing in this situation to any significant degree/regionwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 What about UKMET? Only out to 72h...but it looks GFS-ish to me. Can't see beyond that though, so hard to say what happens after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I don't think you've been in a bad spot for the last several days. I agree. Severe icing is such a rarity. Of course, that's not reason to conclude that it won't happen. But to get it of substance requires everything to hit just right (or wrong for those of us who want snow). Regardless, I'm sure how things are modeled now will undergo many changes over the next too many hours. It has that SWFE appeal being strung out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yeah, I think it ends up being a shriveled mess or a more robust deal like the GGEM. Not buying the icing in this situation to any significant degree/regionwide. If there was significant icing, it probably wouldn't be regionwide anyway. It would be in the typical terrain favored spots. Perhaps down to the interior CP west of Ray like Nashua down toward Westford or something similar. The classic region-wide icing usually requires a more potent arctic high to the north. This one is decent, but not exceptional...like the 2008 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The GEM looked like a swfe to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Maybe it....nah....couldn't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 If there was significant icing, it probably wouldn't be regionwide anyway. It would be in the typical terrain favored spots. Perhaps down to the interior CP west of Ray like Nashua down toward Westford or something similar. The classic region-wide icing usually requires a more potent arctic high to the north. This one is decent, but not exceptional...like the 2008 high. Yea....maybe Lowell, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Only out to 72h...but it looks GFS-ish to me. Can't see beyond that though, so hard to say what happens after. Okay. Interesting, thanks. Agree with your comments on the ice "event" but even discussing the NAM beyond 48 hours is like watching the WWF sans Captain Lou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS is an offshore bomb. GFS sucks...rainer, then fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 last night's euro showed a late blooming system and this continues that idea. if today's run is similar i'd start getting a little nervous I love late bloomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I hope the EURO still Dec 1981s us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I love late bloomers. We should probably start a new thread for the 2nd threat the GFS has but that the other models really don't. Spreading out the discussion using dates that are seemingly in flux is a good idea and not confusing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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