CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS is an offshore bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Hmm, actually looks like GFS tries to get a late phase in, Norlun coming up again? Interesting solution coming up 2nd one is now mostly a miss so we are still looking at 5 days lead on the "big" one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS may be ice to Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS surface temps are comical in these situations. Honestly. to any enthusiast out there..don't look if you live inland. Even a place like BDL may stay below 32 and not just the hills. That's s nice cold tuck and drain with the low south BID Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 This is a big difference in 6 hrs, The GFS is in its "what storm" range? ... the 6Z run was laughable, I hot potato-ed that b*tch all the way to Tolland (where the Rev chucked it into orbit)... Seriously, this evolution is reminding me a bit of the model runup to Boxing Day... features are slightly different and the atmosphere is colder but I do think the stronger solutions will win the day at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS surface temps are comical in these situations. Honestly, to any enthusiast out there..don't look if you live inland. What do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 2nd one is now mostly a miss so we are still looking at 5 days lead on the "big" one Main low is offshore due to the late phase, however, due to the nature of the downstream orientation, there is definitely an inverted trough signal being depicted up on the GFS. While its not a sub 990 bomb, its still something This is something to watch for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS may be ice to Kevin. Nam already is. We'll see what Euro does, but you gotta figure things can only trend a bit colder as we get closer as models sense cold high and weak low s of coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 What do you mean? A place like Worcester in the east slopes of the ORH hillls and at 1k will not be 40F IF the GFS worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Will be somewhat interesting to see if euro hits icing for interior sne sun nite. Of course that means more rain at the coast, but hey, that happens on the cp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 What do you mean? He means the GFS is useless with regard to surface temps for the interior in cold drainage situations. Think ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 It tries to come back west . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 He means the GFS is useless with regard to surface temps for the interior in cold drainage situations. Think ice. It simply does not have the best grid to handle CAD...even the NAM can have issues. Models in general will struggle with these CAD situations. They don't hit the idea that a coastal front can separate temps of 40F to 28F in like 4 miles. The grid resolution will never show that too well, and it always has a bad handle on the lower 1500' temps in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I may leave for n conway, sun pm, I have no patience for dec rain.its disgusting, depressing and if models don't get a very good drain for sne, I'm hopin in corsica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 He means the GFS is useless with regard to surface temps for the interior in cold drainage situations. Think ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 It simply does not have the best grid to handle CAD...even the NAM can have issues. Models in general will struggle with these CAD situations. They don't hit the idea that a coastal front can separate temps of 40F to 28F in like 4 miles. The grid resolution will never show that too well, and it always has a bad handle on the lower 1500' temps in these situations. CF is prob near 495 in this...maybe N Billerica.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Nj gets snow by the shovelful while ct has partly cloudy skies. Forky ran this one from his basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Nam already is. We'll see what Euro does, but you gotta figure things can only trend a bit colder as we get closer as models sense cold high and weak low s of coast NAM actually warms me above freezing eventually too. But even the NAM won't see the CAD better until closer in...it was pretty bad in the Dec 1st event. At this point, we don't know that there will be icing, but we can definitely say the threat is there looking at the synoptic setup on both the NAM and GFS. High in Quebec and sfc reflection getting squashed underneath SNE is out of the Icing 101 handbook for us. The magnitude of the cold shot preceding though is very important. We want to lay down some solid dry arctic air....then advect it southwest as well from Maine. This event could still go alternate routes. Its not that far from being a lot of snow...especially for areas like where Ray is in NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Another run, another solution... Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 last night's euro showed a late blooming system and this continues that idea. if today's run is similar i'd start getting a little nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 SE bias? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS had trouble with temps on Dec 1.... looks like a bit of snow then a crusty coating up here. NAM is more interesting... but, heck...too far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 CF is prob near 495 in this...maybe N Billerica.... Maybe even se of that if models are right. A couple ticks colder aloft and a good snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 NAM actually warms me above freezing eventually too. But even the NAM won't see the CAD better until closer in...it was pretty bad in the Dec 1st event. At this point, we don't know that there will be icing, but we can definitely say the threat is there looking at the synoptic setup on both the NAM and GFS. High in Quebec and sfc reflection getting squashed underneath SNE is out of the Icing 101 handbook for us. The magnitude of the cold shot preceding though is very important. We want to lay down some solid dry arctic air....then advect it southwest as well from Maine. This event could still go alternate routes. Its not that far from being a lot of snow...especially for areas like where Ray is in NE MA. And the NAM also had major timing issues Dec 1... 20 hours off or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 NAM actually warms me above freezing eventually too. But even the NAM won't see the CAD better until closer in...it was pretty bad in the Dec 1st event. At this point, we don't know that there will be icing, but we can definitely say the threat is there looking at the synoptic setup on both the NAM and GFS. High in Quebec and sfc reflection getting squashed underneath SNE is out of the Icing 101 handbook for us. The magnitude of the cold shot preceding though is very important. We want to lay down some solid dry arctic air....then advect it southwest as well from Maine. This event could still go alternate routes. Its not that far from being a lot of snow...especially for areas like where Ray is in NE MA. yep. you need that cold start and continued steady drain. that's why, barring this airmass dropping further south and west initially and ending up colder, i'd favor your area and points NE for ice. i could see other areas going to some light ice but not holding it very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 SE bias? LOL Probably. last night's euro showed a late blooming system and this continues that idea. if today's run is similar i'd start getting a little nervous It's okay for some as the extension gets going in PA/NJ etc, then a lull, then we wait for the precip to back down over eastern/central New England. Not bad here for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Maybe even se of that if models are right. A couple ticks colder aloft and a good snow for you. Well, I'm speaking of THIS solution verbatim...ice would probably be relegated to those areas...at least extensive icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Probably. It's okay for some as the extension gets going in PA/NJ etc, then a lull, then we wait for the precip to back down over eastern/central New England. Not bad here for us. . Yeah at least we don't to worry about BL issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Well, I'm speaking of THIS solution verbatim...ice would probably be relegated to those areas...at least extensive icing. I'll be surprised if icing is a real issue anywhere in SNE. But we'll see, JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 last night's euro showed a late blooming system and this continues that idea. if today's run is similar i'd start getting a little nervous I'm honing in on a Norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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