CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Weird to see the s/w at hr 84 and 90 so far north, yet the heaviest QPF in SNE. The whole thing is disjointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Wonder how many of us may have some power issues Sunday pm into Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Wow, QPF bomb at 84 hours over the interior...mid-levels have just gone above freezing by this point though. That would be an ugly icing setup assuming the 2m temps are cold enough...of course the GFS probably shows 2m temps of like 38 or 40F. The freezing line at 2m gets right up to northern Mass. border with VT/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 So like we thought it came in silly warm but made a jump to colder solution? I don't know if it is a colder solution vs just having amore stout first wave as the s/w breaks off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I don't think we are in a bad spot for this one Yes, sounds like GFS gives us at least that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 i don't know if the profile will stay cold enough to support snow but with the wave on the boundary i can't see how the traditional good CAD locales warm very well at the surface sunday night into monday AM. could definitely see where this is a light snow to ice deal for those areas that typically hold in the low level cold well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 That sfc pressure orientation would be ugly for some interior spots. Def icy. Look how it actually forms a closed sfc reflection near E LI and over toward BID. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 this whole run is going to be funky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 this whole run is going to be funky Just had that exact thought. What a weird solution unfolding on this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I don't know if it is a colder solution vs just having amore stout first wave as the s/w breaks off to the east. I think I'll grab a genny on Saturday. Losing power is fun in summer and in winter, but do need heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I don't know if it is a colder solution vs just having amore stout first wave as the s/w breaks off to the east. Its not a whole lot snowier than 06z for SNE (maybe an inch or two of front end), but the mid-levels def trended colder when I look at CNE. The more strung out front wave definitely helped some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 this whole run is going to be funky I was just thinking that. Some big changes again from 06z. It's not hitting the follow up wave hard and the whole H5 look in the Midwest is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 looks like the 12z gfs won't even have a low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The freezing line at 2m gets right up to northern Mass. border with VT/NH. the GFS will be pretty bad with that though. i'd take that and drop it to the pike and then just run the topography of that region. you can even see the GFS showing CAD in its own poor resolution way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Its not a whole lot snowier than 06z for SNE (maybe an inch or two of front end), but the mid-levels def trended colder when I look at CNE. The more strung out front wave definitely helped some. Yeah I think that helps, and not having this crazy second wave moving up too. The lingering low hangs around just to the east and filters colder air back in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I think I'll grab a genny on Saturday. Losing power is fun in summer and in winter, but do need heat lol but big sales every where,you will need it hard wired to run a furnace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Easy to forecast for my area....once the mid levels warm, I rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Just a whole lot of light to moderate precip Sunday through Tuesday with no low..weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gracetoyou Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 looks like the 12z gfs won't even have a low I'm not sure why I'm even taking the time to watch the models the way they are performing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 looks like the 12z gfs won't even have a low It will, just a weird look. It might blow up last minute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Anyone noticed this morning the observation of the NAO values is up & there's ensemble agreement that it will continue that way even reaching nuetral/positive values during this event. That would have big ramifications for this storm. Do you think the models at this point have been overdoing the west based -NAO? http://www.cpc.ncep....ndex_ensm.shtml Actually, I think the ridge axis will be pulled so far to the west that it will screw up the technical calculation... the pattern is still good for Eastern U.S. cold, despite the actual NAO values being less negative(or even neutral). It's numerical semantics, really ... what matters is the block is there and the long range pattern is cold. As far as its impact on the upcoming event, I really don't pay attention to the actual NAO value for any particular event. There are more important, smaller scale features that impact a storm's evolution at shorter time scales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 the GFS will be pretty bad with that though. i'd take that and drop it to the pike and then just run the topography of that region. you can even see the GFS showing CAD in its own poor resolution way. Yeah it has sfc temps around here of 37F while just aloft it is 42F, lol...that is the "GFS CAD". Starting with temps in the low to mid 20s on Sunday morning with a sfc low getting squeezed south of BID...yeah, that isn't going to get it done for warming up the sfc in the interior by 15 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS is going to end up with a big bomb offshore i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS misses the phase by a decent amount, northern stream energy never digs, if it did....man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 So many questions, seems like sne will just need the low to take very close to bm track and be strong, not sure that anything else will cut it for orh to nw ct se'ward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 This is a big difference in 6 hrs, 12z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 lol but big sales every where,you will need it hard wired to run a furnace Is Tequila Barry around to install it for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yeah it has sfc temps around here of 37F while just aloft it is 42F, lol...that is the "GFS CAD". Starting with temps in the low to mid 20s on Sunday morning with a sfc low getting squeezed south of BID...yeah, that isn't going to get it done for warming up the sfc in the interior by 15 degrees. it'll be interesting to see how much moisture gets squeezed out. that would be a decent ice storm for you for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS misses the phase by a decent amount, northern stream energy never digs, if it did....man Hmm, actually looks like GFS tries to get a late phase in, Norlun coming up again? Interesting solution coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS surface temps are comical in these situations. Honestly, to any enthusiast out there..don't look if you live inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.