HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 This looks like a possible scenario where the Ct River Valley from Greenfield to Brattleboro and N holds the sub 30F temps for hours longer than forecasts suggest leaving a nice .10" glaze on top of several inches of paste. I've seen it before. Instant winter wonderland. Not my prefered solution but still palatable. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 This looks like a possible scenario where the Ct River Valley from Greenfield to Brattleboro and N holds the sub 30F temps for hours longer than forecasts suggest leaving a nice .10" glaze on top of several inches of paste. I've seen it before. Instant winter wonderland. Not my prefered solution but still palatable. lol i definitely think a light icing scenario on top of whatever amount of snow falls on sunday is possible for those areas you are talking about and over toward Will and pts N. there isn't a screaming flow to eat away the low level cold. and there would likely be some lingering moisture around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You can see hints of the coastal front too with NE winds inland. Those NAM srfc temps would probably be too warm west of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You can see hints of the coastal front too with NE winds inland. Those NAM srfc temps would probably be too warm west of the front. Yeah on Dec 1st, they were about 8-10F too warm. I think they had temps getting into the mid to upper 30s that afternoon and we were rotting at 26F. Its usually because they are not ageostrophic enough with the sfc winds. I also wonder if the guidance likes to overplay the diurnal temp swing in those setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I don't see anywhere n of Hfd getting above freezing on that setup/ panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I don't see anywhere n of Hfd getting above freezing on that setup/ panels Icy hill tops in Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gracetoyou Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Anyone noticed this morning the observation of the NAO values is up & there's ensemble agreement that it will continue that way even reaching nuetral/positive values during this event. That would have big ramifications for this storm. Do you think the models at this point have been overdoing the west based -NAO? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Icy hill tops in Tolland. Yeah it has that look as modeled. Couple inches of snow then sleet then zr and hills stay around 30 or so .and low spots 32-33 or something like that. We've Seen this so many times I now know what to expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Man this is a weenie run for the ORH Hills, lol... check out the jump in H85 freezing line from hour 75-78... But then H85 freezing just sort of stalls and pounds ORH north with 32F wet snow. NAM locks the cold into the dacks as CNY torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 the NAM is quite a bit stronger with the system moving into the GL than the euro. euro is probably too light on precip and maybe the NAM is overdone some. the 12z NAM actually has a closed 700 low over lake michigan and really has a much sharper trough moving into the OV/GL. so as a result the low to mid-level flow out ahead of it is really enhanced - that's helping with the "overrunning". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 While it's possible NAM may be overdone with the strength of the initial low and therefore the QPF, it's never good for far western zones whenever the 0° C at 850 runs from NW to SE. Verbatim, I'd probably get a 2-3" snow then crap. Good run for CNE and NNE as CAD keeps that area snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Someone posted an excellent link for some analogs: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ January 15th, 2001 matches up very nicely between what's modeled and what happened. That event dumped 2-4" across interior SNE. The high position was better then, but it was weaker. The main low went into northern Michigan and a new low formed JUST south of Block Island. Anyone remember that event? http://www.meteo.psu...2001/us0115.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Watch weenies suck pills when Gfs comes in with a ridiculous warm solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 That would be a great hit up this way and plenty cold for all snow Indeed, I already locked up my 6" from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Watch weenies suck pills when Gfs comes in with a ridiculous warm solution Through 15z Sun the 32F line is along the CT/MA border and all of CT is below 0C at 850, except for Greenwich. Light precip over most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I like what i'm reading here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS a little south with the GL low and moisture overrunning by Sunday morning. Rather chilly, just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 12z GFS looks similar to 6z. Temps warm very quickly by midday Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Watch weenies suck pills when Gfs comes in with a ridiculous warm solution The GFS will never do well with the low level cold...but we can see if its going to trend stronger/weaker with the cold shot and/or with the primary in the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 i wonder if we lose Will to some icing power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Much heavier precipitation into Sunday night. Thermal profile similar, although the thickness axis is more flat, as opposed to NW/SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 SOme big changes, GFS is very weak and strung out with the first wave at 500mb, almost euro like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Although the GFS is very juice with this first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Looks like a solid 0.5 to 0.75" event for much of the area. Someone could really make out across interior Mass. (Haven't looked at the bigger view trends with the system re: 12z GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 12z euro set the bar yesterday for swan dives in sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Wet in Foxborough Sunday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 So like we thought it came in silly warm but made a jump to colder solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Indeed, I already locked up my 6" from the NAM. I don't think we are in a bad spot for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Wow, QPF bomb at 84 hours over the interior...mid-levels have just gone above freezing by this point though. That would be an ugly icing setup assuming the 2m temps are cold enough...of course the GFS probably shows 2m temps of like 38 or 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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