Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 SREFs are definitely impressive with the cold push prior to this wave. However, a number of solutions are pretty amped to our west. There is definitely going to be a battle here. There is actually somewhat of an icing signal in the interior on SREFs after some front end snow when looking at what may happen beyond their endpoint. We'll definitely have to watch for the icing scenario. This could be similar to the Dec 1st CAD situation where guidance drastically over estimates 2m temps. Ice has been in the back of my mind since Jerry pointed out that 498 height contour in Quebec.Actually kind of a classic frdz signal for you guys. Minimal lift, nice 1/4 glaze frosting your couple of inches. Great holiday mood setter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 But what about us? That's all I really care about. And if we have to split hairs? Me. It's possible our best shot is the crappy lead system. The second wave on the euro would do it, if it tracked about 50-70 miles SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Tbh I'm much more interested in the Sunday thru Tuesday events ECM weenie snowfall graphic through 18z Tuesday.... This would be something... Harwington at 1kft is the place to be. Also, very curious how the Montreal suburbs jackpot in this scenario... You can tell the situation is marginal when even the weenie snow maps are keeping snow at higher elevations and way inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 the 00z euro is pretty deceiving at 850 and is a good example of why we need the cold push to be pretty strong. monday afternoon through tuesday AM - like hrs 120-126-132 etc look cold for a good chunk of SNE but the lower levels actually warm through that period. 925 temps by 06z tue are above freezing for just about all of SNE...and verbatim the modeled surface temps are tickling 40F on a PSM to ORH to HFD kind of line. not that that should be taken as gospel or anything but it just illustrates why the set-up could be tough if we don't get and maintain a strong drain of low level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 the 00z euro is pretty deceiving at 850 and is a good example of why we need the cold push to be pretty strong. monday afternoon through tuesday AM - like hrs 120-126-132 etc look cold for a good chunk of SNE but the lower levels actually warm through that period. 925 temps by 06z tue are above freezing for just about all of SNE...and verbatim the modeled surface temps are tickling 40F on a PSM to ORH to HFD kind of line. not that that should be taken as gospel or anything but it just illustrates why the set-up could be tough if we don't get and maintain a strong drain of low level cold. Ahhh ok, so that's why even the weenie snowfall graphics are so low outside of the Berkshires/Litchfield Hills. I usually think of those snow graphics printing snow when sometimes it isn't. The model obviously is thinking its pretty warm in the lowest 2,000ft or so as I was surprised that snow graphic wasn't more robust in other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 nam is real wet with the first system but to warm for most snow to rain on the nam maybe some icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Is this still modeled as a large QPF dump on the EURO ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 the 00z euro is pretty deceiving at 850 and is a good example of why we need the cold push to be pretty strong. monday afternoon through tuesday AM - like hrs 120-126-132 etc look cold for a good chunk of SNE but the lower levels actually warm through that period. 925 temps by 06z tue are above freezing for just about all of SNE...and verbatim the modeled surface temps are tickling 40F on a PSM to ORH to HFD kind of line. not that that should be taken as gospel or anything but it just illustrates why the set-up could be tough if we don't get and maintain a strong drain of low level cold. Thank you. Out of region mets seem to have a different take online than some. Most seem to be saying what you're saying which is its warm in the BL. Perhaps why the euro clown map is limited aside of the hills and north country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 ECM weenie snowfall graphic through 18z Tuesday.... This would be something... Harwington at 1kft is the place to be. Also, very curious how the Montreal suburbs jackpot in this scenario... You can tell the situation is marginal when even the weenie snow maps are keeping snow at higher elevations and way inland. haha that's such a NW CT weenie map, right over my head. It knows the Litchfield hills are a snow magnet. I'll call them "Green Mountains South" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 NAM is loaded on Sunday with front end QPF. Fast advisory snow burst to icing (probably rain coast)...that would be pretty high impact. That is in contrast to some of the solutions with much lighter QPF on Sunday. As always, usual caveats apply. The CAD signal is pretty impressive though. Its certainly the type of setup where you have to watch for 8-10F busts on the 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 12z NAM looks good for CNE/NNE... good burst Pike north. NE Mass does pretty decent actually but too bad there isn't some higher terrain in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 speaking of Euro Ens, nice look to Christmas week, great setup for a storm. better start another thread for that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I've been hitting that snow to moderate icestorm hard . I think that is very likely we lay down 2-4 inches of snow then solid ice and never above 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Is this still modeled as a large QPF dump on the EURO ens? I only have precip probs, but 30% prob this far out on 0.5" in 6 hrs is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 NAM is loaded on Sunday with front end QPF. Fast advisory snow burst to icing (probably rain coast)...that would be pretty high impact. That is in contrast to some of the solutions with much lighter QPF on Sunday. As always, usual caveats apply. The CAD signal is pretty impressive though. Its certainly the type of setup where you have to watch for 8-10F busts on the 2m temps. Yeah that screams a scenario where the ORH hills just hang on to snow for longer than expected... you to HubbDave and subdude at elevation would get a thumping 3-6" type deal at least. It seems the warmer air rushes north quickly then hits a brick wall near the Pike for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Warmest level on the soundings is right at 850mb...so that is actually one scenario where the 850 0C line is a good R/S line (or in some cases ice/snow line) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 It's possible our best shot is the crappy lead system. The second wave on the euro would do it, if it tracked about 50-70 miles SE I was being facetious, but yeah, I'm guessing you're spot-on. Second system looks like rain, but I'm hoping it leaves a favorable pattern in its wake for Xmas week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Warmest level on the soundings is right at 850mb...so that is actually one scenario where the 850 0C line is a good R/S line (or in some cases ice/snow line) That's a good thump near you and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Looks good for plenty of winter HVN north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I only have precip probs, but 30% prob this far out on 0.5" in 6 hrs is good. Storm 2 total was over 1.00" for Ray on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Warmest level on the soundings is right at 850mb...so that is actually one scenario where the 850 0C line is a good R/S line (or in some cases ice/snow line) Usual NAM QPF caveats apply, but that's >0.5" QPF over all of SNE in about 9 hours. That would be a classic SWFE thump with like 0.1" or more in the bucket each hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 ECM weenie snowfall graphic through 18z Tuesday.... This would be something... Harwington at 1kft is the place to be. Also, very curious how the Montreal suburbs jackpot in this scenario... You can tell the situation is marginal when even the weenie snow maps are keeping snow at higher elevations and way inland. ill take that in Lake George, would make Gore to Whiteface happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yeah that screams a scenario where the ORH hills just hang on to snow for longer than expected... you to HubbDave and subdude at elevation would get a thumping 3-6" type deal at least. It seems the warmer air rushes north quickly then hits a brick wall near the Pike for a while. Yeah we've seen that before. This was kind of an interesting solution. I wonder if this morphs into a mostly Sunday deal like the NAM shows. Euro said mostly Monday but the solutions have not been stagnent at all. The cold push has been quite impressive while at the same time the trend has been a bit more amped up to our west. Two conflicting signals. That could set the stage for a stronger battle on Sunday...that would mean higher qpf with the stronger isentropic glide and also potential for some ugly icing...esp if the sfc reflection slides S of us which almost all guidance is doing. That is a perfect recipe for guidance to under estimate the LL cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Here's the last really cold (wintry in CT) panel, but moderate/heavy precipitation is moving in. As others stated, will have to watch the CAD scenario where a couple of degrees could make a huge difference. Add about 3F for the panel after this at 2-meters: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Another signal here is the SREF mean. 2m temps stay below freezing almost right down to the CT/MA border across the board and 850mb temps don't rise above freezing until the heaviest precipitation is over. Here's the 4 p.m. Sunday image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Seems to be morphing into a more classic SWFE set-up...those are so much fun from a nowcast standpoint. Watch the first system become the big ticket item now, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Thank you. Out of region mets seem to have a different take online than some. Most seem to be saying what you're saying which is its warm in the BL. Perhaps why the euro clown map is limited aside of the hills and north country it's important to note though it's just one model outcome. it's not intended to be "the forecast" or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 That would be a great hit up this way and plenty cold for all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 this is a Will Hunchie sounding off the NAM, pretty sweet. Maybe a weenie ride in my future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Man this is a weenie run for the ORH Hills, lol... check out the jump in H85 freezing line from hour 75-78... But then H85 freezing just sort of stalls and pounds ORH north with 32F wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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