ezweather Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The one threat that does catch my attention, its quite a few days out, but the 288 HR panel surface map looks really interesting. Lots of moisture with this threat. So, right after Christmas that could be a storm to watch. Of course, the GFS will probably look different on today's run, but I think the pattern may finally be favorable for a big storm. Did see that DT was speaking about that threat on his Facebook page this morning. So, definitely something to watch as the upcoming pattern change may finally support something. Just a quick addition, GFS ensembles does show the threat as well. Thats a good sign. So, perhaps a big storm storm for this time period could be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The one threat that does catch my attention, its quite a few days out, but the 288 HR panel surface map looks really interesting. Lots of moisture with this threat. So, right after Christmas that could be a storm to watch. Of course, the GFS will probably look different on today's run, but I think the pattern may finally be favorable for a big storm. Did see that DT was speaking about that threat on his Facebook page this morning. So, definitely something to watch as the upcoming pattern change may finally support something. Just a quick addition, GFS ensembles does show the threat as well. Thats a good sign. So, perhaps a big storm storm for this time period could be in the cards. Yeah, looks like the evolving pattern will be getting better for opportunities in the East. Looks like nearly three systems to affect us through next week, but the last one late next week looks like it amplifies the pattern much more with colder air getting pulled down into the East on a much widespread scale. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The one threat that does catch my attention, its quite a few days out, but the 288 HR panel surface map looks really interesting. Lots of moisture with this threat. So, right after Christmas that could be a storm to watch. Of course, the GFS will probably look different on today's run, but I think the pattern may finally be favorable for a big storm. Did see that DT was speaking about that threat on his Facebook page this morning. So, definitely something to watch as the upcoming pattern change may finally support something. Just a quick addition, GFS ensembles does show the threat as well. Thats a good sign. So, perhaps a big storm storm for this time period could be in the cards. That threat showed up on the 0Z and 6Z, with variations in timing. Something to keep an eye on. Especially since I'm flying back here on the 27th. I'd personally prefer it to hit on the 27th or earlier, not later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I'll be in Pittsburgh the weekend of the 29th-30th. I'm sure that's when it'll snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Ray, I do hope your here in time for the big winter storm. Sucks watching it from a far. We all know that when the new runs come in this afternoon, it will look totally different. But hopefully the pattern will be favorable. That threat showed up on the 0Z and 6Z, with variations in timing. Something to keep an eye on. Especially since I'm flying back here on the 27th. I'd personally prefer it to hit on the 27th or earlier, not later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Ray, I do hope your here in time for the big winter storm. Sucks watching it from a far. We all know that when the new runs come in this afternoon, it will look totally different. But hopefully the pattern will be favorable. Thanks, it would be nice for something to occur around Christmas. Even our "big" storms seem to be piddly affairs here in Elko. And tracking them is much less fun with the limited radar coverage and the way the storms get chopped to bits as they come over the mountains. You don't get those big organized storms here like you do back there. Maybe I'll move to Cleveland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Agree Ray! That could happen, but I'm pretty sure they will all be after the three systems next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Yeah, looks like the evolving pattern will be getting better for opportunities in the East. Looks like nearly three systems to affect us through next week, but the last one late next week looks like it amplifies the pattern much more with colder air getting pulled down into the East on a much widespread scale. Time will tell. GFS still has it... looks purrty... too bad its still beyond 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 to sum it up jinxed.... Euro is rain for I-95...might as well get that out there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Hey it did hail in places today so that technically is frozen precip!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 not sure if this belongs in here, but this is 12z tomorrow in Philly: off the new 12z GFS 70 kt LLJ @ 925mbs... is this showing an inversion to stop them from mixing down? pretty healthy LLJ, just get confused on the soundings with inversion layers (not my strong suit) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 not sure if this belongs in here, but this is 12z tomorrow in Philly: off the new 12z GFS 70 kt LLJ @ 925mbs... is this showing an inversion to stop them from mixing down? pretty healthy LLJ, just get confused on the soundings with inversion layers (not my strong suit) If you have a well mixed layer (temperature decreasing at the dry adiabatic lapse rate) with strong winds in (usually near the top) of that layer, then gusts of that speed are likely to mix to the surface. The less mixed, the less wind that will reach the surface. That sounding is not a full inversion, but it is stable near the surface as it is nearly isothermal. That will mean that its harder to get those winds down. That being said, I wouldn't rule out gusts to, say 50 mph tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Thanks Ray. I usually look for the green line to turn hard left, while keeping the red line straight as possible lol. I'm good with the snow/sleet/rain/zrain looks on the soundings. I'm just learning how to read the mixed/inversion layers that mix gusts down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's raining guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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