RedSky Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 unfortunately any chance at the white stuff has gone down the drain next week. Guess all the modelling did poorly with the GFS doing the least poor about sums it up Ji rule #9 if the euro shows potential snow/wintry conditions developing thats when it's most likely wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Somebody make new thread for potential of flurries leading up to christmas Dec 21-24 good chance the quakertown skating pond can freeze over by christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 unfortunately any chance at the white stuff has gone down the drain next week. Guess all the modelling did poorly with the GFS doing the least poor about sums it up Ji rule #9 if the euro shows potential snow/wintry conditions developing thats when it's most likely wrong The GFS has very blatantly obvious errors on the 12z run... I wouldn't call it the golden model, it is far from it. It is close to being synoptically impossible. Days 4-9 this typical of the GFS. Euro although scattered, the ensembles have been relatively consistent. I am not disagreeing with the inland track, or that there won't be snow, but this won't happen like the 12z GFS depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 For all of you JB lovers....uh well maybe the few of you here latest update - take heart his title this PM is "Winter is Coming" - he has not said "delayed but not denied" What happens in December the winter remembers" "Vodka cold" but get your snow blowers ready!! (he didn't say that but I for one am at the ready!) "A nationwide stormier, colder pattern is evolving. If we look at the ensembles, we see the different members with some real wild looking non cold solutions, solutions I have never seen in winter, where the block does not back up in the means, but instead drops into the east. If that happens, then of course its very warm. If it doesnt and you remove those members, then you get a much colder solution. So it is with this run today. I like both storms running centers to the Ohio valley , then bombing out on the mid atlantic coast as they come northeast to new England. The GFS surface forecast has to be considered, but is likely not catching what the euro caught last night. The euro second storm the one that sends enough cold into the southeas tto threaten Florida with a freeze in 8-10 days, looks like what should happen and is similar to what the Eurga has been implying all along. But the cold is coming, and we have a pattern that will encourage high pressue in Canada and a southern train of storms A look at the JMA shows almost to a T the way I have envisioned this as the ridge now in undercut and the trough takes over.. Notice of the next 4 weeks, 3 have the tongue of cold Alaska to the southeast US notice the beauty of the symetry of what is going on in China with the US! Now watch what happens week 3,4.. the trough develops over the Pacific where the ridge has been been and the large scale trough is in the east, BUT WITH THE STREAM CONTINUING If winter is your wish, you cant beat below normal temps and above normal precip. The major turnaround can be seen in the GFS day 1-7 and then 8-16.. keep in mind the transition is in the 5-8 day period. This lines up nicely with the JMA message, and most models for that matter. I would look for the ensembles to start kicking the warm members out into the cold and look colder each run As the pattern sets, I will be honing in on where weather gets wildest.. With the maxes so far south, the GFS riding the storm so far north seems to be overdone and both should redevelop south of New England, east of the mid atlantic. But this will become a coast to coast pattern. The air will be cold enough, especially in light of recent warmth for alot of lake effect as the deep uppper low develops over the east. The cold surge goes into the southeast. the southern plains become a worry for snow and ice as waves try to come through the southwest ridge and plow east. As for the interior norheast snow, in december negatives coming through the slot like this dont normally have storms run to the lakes and so reformation is likely" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The 12z Canadian has three seperate events through 180hrs, all rain. The system late runs into the block and redevelops a secondary but it pops over VA and tracks west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The end of the 12z NOAGPS is also interesting. It runs the lakes cutter into the block and closes off at hr 180, it may be in good position to pop that secondary low in a favorable location as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Euro? A few close calls, but no snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 A few close calls, but no snow verbatim. for Elko or SE PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 for Elko or SE PA? Actually its got plenty of snow for Elko Of course, I'll be gone for a fair amount of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Euro ens are a good bit better for the late week threat. Though, their still would be a push of mild air with a primary into mich but the coastal development will turn the winds to the north and advect cold air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 ^^^ never good for Phl south when redevelopment is near our latt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 ^^^ never good for Phl south when redevelopment is near our latt. Bingo....the dry slot would already have passed us at this point too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 ^^^ never good for Phl south when redevelopment is near our latt. Yeah I was about to say, that's not a good surface depiction for PHL, the wind shift would tend to be too late and there usually isn't good wraparound in those situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Euro ens are a good bit better for the late week threat. Though, their still would be a push of mild air with a primary into mich but the coastal development will turn the winds to the north and advect cold air in. That's some good cold air and nice HP diving into the upper midwest. About time we see good old HP over Canada. At least is should get colder around Christmas. Happy holidays all btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yea you guys are right..going to need something to flatten out the flow, because if not that's headed right to the lakes with the currents h5 predictions from the gfs and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I think last nights 00z euro run showed that sweet storm Day 7-9 because of the better block and a stronger 50/50 low...todays 12z wasn't as strong in those areas so the miller b formed too far north. tombo, today's 12z EURO @ 168-192hrs what does that storm specifically do for us and NE precip-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I think last nights 00z euro run showed that sweet storm Day 7-9 because of the better block and a stronger 50/50 low...todays 12z wasn't as strong in those areas so the miller b formed too far north. tombo, today's 12z EURO @ 168-192hrs what does that storm specifically do for us and NE precip-wise. The op is just basically a glorified cold front with some sort of wave on it. The low in the lakes is the primary low the whole time. It dumps .5-1 of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The southeast ridge on the 18z GFS causes the end of the week storm to shoot up to the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The southeast ridge on the 18z GFS causes the end of the week storm to shoot up to the lakes. Yea its in response to the digging shortwave coming out of the rockies. The whole 18z gfs depiction of that is horrid. First off you have a high scooting off underneath us, thats southerly winds. Then you have the low going to the lakes which is more southerly winds. It has 925mb temps approaching plus 8. Need that s/w to be less amplified and almost flat. then it can start getting its act together once to the mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yea tom agreed. I think the models will sense the block more and more and amplify that wave more (at least I can hope)...Id be personally shocked if we dont manage snow in the next 8-16 days honestly..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 ...Id be personally shocked if we dont manage snow in the next 8-16 days honestly..... I wouldn't be. It seems to really be a struggle lately to get a bonafide winter snowstorm in the region here of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I wouldn't be. It seems to really be a struggle lately to get a bonafide winter snowstorm in the region here of late. The pattern does look better heading into christmas and just after...It does up the chances of wintry precip but their are definitely things that can ruin those chances. Like the pna. Its going to be a battle between the pacific and how strong the block is. So far the pacific is winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 December cancel back in the mix? Archambault event my a$$... It's pretty evident there was no Archambault event for a while, I thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 weather world expecting a seasonably cold but dry period next weekend through christmas, then a return to milder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 GFS, EC, NOGAPS, GEM, all on board for the next 3 systems next week being lakes cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 We are stairing at 0 for 4 straight months of meteorological winter fun now. I knew there was a price to be paid for the 2010,2011 winter combo and everybody feared it but this is nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 We are stairing at 0 for 4 straight months of meteorological winter fun now. I knew there was a price to be paid for the 2010,2011 winter combo and everybody feared it but this is nasty As much as it does suck, there is still some hope for the end of DEC imo...Day 8-10 EURO & GFS show a pretty good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 To me the developing pattern looks ripe for winter events here in the NW Philly burbs....now that does not mean huge snowstorms but for sure this is not like last year at all. Very challenging forecast times ahead for our weather professionals. I expect 3 or 4 winter events before the new year. Should be very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 To me the developing pattern looks ripe for winter events here in the NW Philly burbs....now that does not mean huge snowstorms but for sure this is not like last year at all. Very challenging forecast times ahead for our weather professionals. I expect 3 or 4 winter events before the new year. Should be very interesting That could happen, but I'm pretty sure they will all be after the three systems next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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