Bobby EPAWA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Breaking news... SHOCKER... ECM ensembles are well west of the OP and colder. Nice hit for PA NW of I-95... 850s to the coast... Not sure why we are following operational guidance when there are glaring errors. Steady as she goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Breaking news... SHOCKER... ECM ensembles are well west of the OP and colder. Nice hit for PA NW of I-95... 850s to the coast... Not sure why we are following operational guidance when there are glaring errors. Steady as she goes... Bobby, ALOT of negativity on here. We seem to find the little details that just won't allow any storm to happen. Why I spectate mostly here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Breaking news... SHOCKER... ECM ensembles are well west of the OP and colder. Nice hit for PA NW of I-95... 850s to the coast... Not sure why we are following operational guidance when there are glaring errors. Steady as she goes... 850 has -2 way up in the Pocs. Chances are high the BL is warm, at least along and a bit of the way northwest of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 This doesn't look bad at all for the system next week. 12z ECMWF ENS at hour 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 850 has -2 way up in the Pocs. Chances are high the BL is warm, at least along and a bit of the way northwest of I-95. Yes, but at 144 hours the BL temps aren't important. Point is the ensembles of the European model continue to be rock steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yes, but at 144 hours the BL temps aren't important. Point is the ensembles of the European model continue to be rock steady. *yawn* I keep hearing people say that. Its silliness, it really is. Of course the BL matters. It is a clue as to whether there is cold air available to tap. If there is a huge gradient near the storm which suggests there IS ample cold air, then yes, the BL temps at a particular point don't matter much. However, that's not the case. The cold air in general is very limited. That is a *REAL* problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 It is only silliness if the LP remains weak... a bombing system will dynamically produce it's own cold air source. You know that. Of course it isn't the most ideal without the high pressure/cold source... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I'll say it again -- all of what happens on Wednesday is moot until wave #1 (or 1 & 2) get figured out. Once we know how strong the Sun/Mon combo is going to be, we should see more clarity around the Wednesday event. The worrying about each damn model run is silly considering the Sunday/Monday event still has large discrepancies between the Euro and GFS. Until wave 1 gets figured out, wave 2 is going to have even more uncertainty. If wave 1 is weak, wave 2 is likely to not have enough cold air to work with for snow outside of the Poconos. If wave 1 is stronger, the cold will be around for something to fire up. Given how fast the pattern is, a bombing scenario is unlikely to take hold. It doesn't mean it's NOT going to snow but this first wave on Sunday/Monday has to be a bit stronger. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I'll say it again -- all of what happens on Wednesday is moot until wave #1 (or 1 & 2) get figured out. Once we know how strong the Sun/Mon combo is going to be, we should see more clarity around the Wednesday event. The worrying about each damn model run is silly considering the Sunday/Monday event still has large discrepancies between the Euro and GFS. Until wave 1 gets figured out, wave 2 is going to have even more uncertainty. If wave 1 is weak, wave 2 is likely to not have enough cold air to work with for snow outside of the Poconos. If wave 1 is stronger, the cold will be around for something to fire up. Given how fast the pattern is, a bombing scenario is unlikely to take hold. It doesn't mean it's NOT going to snow but this first wave on Sunday/Monday has to be a bit stronger. Carry on. I don't see anyone arguing this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I don't see anyone arguing this... arguing what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 It is only silliness if the LP remains weak... a bombing system will dynamically produce it's own cold air source. You know that. Of course it isn't the most ideal without the high pressure/cold source... It *can*, not it *will*. If it *will* then we should go back in time and rewrite ABE's 12/11-12/1992 snow total from a trace to something like 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 arguing what? It *can*, not it *will*. If it *will* then we should go back in time and rewrite ABE's 12/11-12/1992 snow total from a trace to something like 6-12". Ok can... yes... but sub 992mb should SHOULD be sufficient for the interior - and that is ens pressure, which is most likely too high. PHL - thought you were directing that at me since it followed my post. Sorry for the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Ok can... yes... but sub 992mb should SHOULD be sufficient for the interior - and that is ens pressure, which is most likely too high. That's wishful thinking. It will depend on how the low develops, where the CCB sets up, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 That's wishful thinking. It will depend on how the low develops, where the CCB sets up, etc. Of course... the basis of my original post was that I liked the consistency of the ECM EPS ens... that is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Tom says I need to stop arguing and admit the storm will produce its own cold air.. so, I concede and admit there will be a blizzard next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I think it also should be shown, what the airmass looks like at the start of the storm...Im not saying it won't happen but i can't think off the top of my head of a storm for phl metro on southeast that amounted to anything worthwhile when airmass not supporting snow was in at the start of the storm. North and west is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Tom says I need to stop arguing and admit the storm will produce its own cold air.. so, I concede and admit there will be a blizzard next week. lolz...a storm can produce its own cold but you should never go into a storm banking on that. Just ask new york city that in whatever year it was when they were under a heavy snow warning and got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 lolz...a storm can produce its own cold but you should never go into a storm banking on that. Just ask new york city that in whatever year it was when they were under a heavy snow warning and got nothing. I think that was January 08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Tom says I need to stop arguing and admit the storm will produce its own cold air.. so, I concede and admit there will be a blizzard next week. This made me laugh hysterically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 This made me laugh hysterically see what a little persuasion can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 lolz...a storm can produce its own cold but you should never go into a storm banking on that. Just ask new york city that in whatever year it was when they were under a heavy snow warning and got nothing. Jan 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Guys, obviously the ensemble mean at 144 hrs is the absolute truth in terms of storm strength and storm track, we know that. And of course it's completely wrong in its depiction of the BL, it always is. The models never pick up on how much cold air these storms create by themselves. Aaaaaand with that I'm boarding a very long train home for break, so we'll see what things look like when I'm back in the 215 tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I think it also should be shown, what the airmass looks like at the start of the storm...Im not saying it won't happen but i can't think off the top of my head of a storm for phl metro on southeast that amounted to anything worthwhile when airmass not supporting snow was in at the start of the storm. North and west is a different story. Sometime during 2011(dont remember exact date) there was an event that had heavy rain during the day and then changed to a heavy wet snow that night and accumulated to quite a bit in South Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Sometime during 2011(dont remember exact date) there was an event that had heavy rain during the day and then changed to a heavy wet snow that night and accumulated to quite a bit in South Jersey. had to of been the jan 11-12 or 26-27 storm...and their was cold air before that storm if that's the correct one. Both of them had cold air in place before hand. The 11-12 south jerz started with a mix or plain rain but temps were in the low to mid 30s....the 26-27 storm everyone got snow that morning. I remember ray and I were debating back and forth cause i kept saying dc and balt were snowing and they were not suppose to. Phl metro on south and east changed over to mix and lgt rain during the day with showers...once the heavy precip came back in it turned everyone over. Here is 21z jan 26, you can see the -10 isotherm in the northeast, which shows the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Welp, we are concerned about Saturday night and Monday night up here, we are getting the trucks ready and loaded tomorrow. Penndot thinks that nor Easter will be rain PennDot now has their own Meteorologist's? Or, this is what AccuWeather or other weather agencies are telling them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Tom says I need to stop arguing and admit the storm will produce its own cold air.. so, I concede and admit there will be a blizzard next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yeah Tom, I think it was the 26th. All I remember is all day worrying that we were never going to change over and that we would waste all of the QPF on rain. It ended up being really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 What zone are you 5? Welp, we are concerned about Saturday night and Monday night up here, we are getting the trucks ready and loaded tomorrow. Penndot thinks that nor Easter will be rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Euro shows potential still. Not far from getting snow towards the big cities. GFS on the other hand.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 What zone are you 5? Yes Sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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