ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 From JB at Weatherbell "A 3 part storm next week. Part one is the storm running to the lakes and then starting to secondary, with a shot of energy coming into the secondary for a re-enhancement of the snow. Consequently the period Sunday noon till sundown Tuesday. In fact it should be snowing in Foxboro Sunday night which would mean the second Sunday night HD snow game in a row, something I have never seen before I have this as Monday-Tuesday, but the first snows should start Sunday afternoon back away then come back Monday into Tuesday. The next part is Wed Thursday and I like my idea of storm to Ohio, then secondary on the Carolina coast and bombing out ne to Nantucket Wed. The snow should be more sw/ne with heavy interior amounts and a change to snow at the end at the coast . In fact, a bullseye for both storms may be the Catskills, which by late next week may have seen 1-2 feet of snow. The system the middle of next week should be a very strong one. I think the GFS is playing its games again with the front runner. The euro operational has had some problems but what is remarkable is the ensemble consistancy of this model. Look at the day 10 from Sunday This sends the negative right through the magic mid atlantic area for the northeast interior snowstorm. There should be a backlash also so the coastal areas and big cities down to BWI change to snow. But this is far more consistent than the GFS and So I like what I put out as far as the track goes. While I think the heavy snows are above 1 thousand feet here ( upward motion will take over and some cold air damming will develop between the two systems into the va piedmont, allowing for the changeover once the air gets lifted furher north) I have been biased too far to the northwest with first calls with Sandy Sequel and the late November storm, But run the low to southern Ohio then explode the secondary on the coast in December and a hefty snowstorm is the result In this case its the start of a cold pattern and i believe the ECMWF as far as bringing the cold quicker.. Notice the day 10 That is going to dump a world of cold into the east. The march of the cold is much stronger on the ECMWF into the southeast than the US ensemble and in agreement more with the GFS operational and Euro operational - ECMWF ensemble 850 day 6-10 deviation from normal If I am right about the snow, that will easily extend south into the central Appalachians. The current GFS snow idea will correct south I believe with time, with heavy amounts into the mtns all the way into wva and most of pa and north Jersey in the over 4 inch range when this is over...and of course heavier as mentioned above to the west, nw, n and ne" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 From JB at Weatherbell the snow, that will easily extend south into the central Appalachians. The current GFS snow idea will correct south I believe with time, with heavy amounts into the mtns all the way into wva and most of pa and north Jersey in the over 4 inch range when this is over...and of course heavier as mentioned above to the west, nw, n and ne" Getting the not so confident feeling when the I-95 spinmaster JB throws out the caveat that the "most of PA" affected will likely be west, nw,n, and ne of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Considering that we are in the southeast corner....all of PA is north and west of us...should be a couple interesting weeks as we move toward Christmas! Getting the not so confident feeling when the I-95 spinmaster JB throws out the caveat that the "most of PA" affected will likely be west, nw,n, and ne of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 thanks paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 per the gfs pretty much all of the northeast sees some rain...Will be interesting to see the rest of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 per the gfs pretty much all of the northeast sees some rain...Will be interesting to see the rest of the models. yeah, that 1st wave really torches the boundary. doesnt help the 2nd wave drives the low up to the central NC/VA border up through the delmarva then NNE from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Per H5 on the GFS I would suspect the low should be about 50 miles east of what it shows. Also the low is pretty well separated from the qpf/ moisture down south unlike the euro. Even at that if it did shift east it would be rain with winter mix north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Per H5 on the GFS I would suspect the low should be about 50 miles east of what it shows. Also the low is pretty well separated from the qpf/ moisture down south unlike the euro. Even at that if it did shift east it would be rain with winter mix north and west. u could get a 150 mile shift east, with that airmass its gonna be mainly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 even more concerning then a rainstorm to me is the mild weather and cutter beyond it, euro was in a different world with that. So i wonder if GFS wins the mid week battle does it win beyond that? yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 sadly, i think the euro is gonna cave to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 And if it does....no worries as there are plenty of runs with many more shifts to come....welcome to models during pattern swings. sadly, i think the euro is gonna cave to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 And if it does....no worries as there are plenty of runs with many more shifts to come....welcome to models during pattern swings. Ehh, not liking the -PNA here... No time for the over to dig and get off the coast, so by the time it starts feelin the block, it amplifies inland. Just my .02c right now.sadly, I won't be up for the 0z euro, in the middle if a 40hr shift, trying to get some sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 sadly, i think the euro is gonna cave to the GFS 0z ukie has 3 waves just like the euro. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 0z ukie has 3 waves just like the euro. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=120 That actually looks like it would be a good setup for the third wave and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Quite the Bomb on the canadain with the 3rd wave. would have to think that would be significant coastal flooding issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The canadian is the best bet if anyone wants snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 My sterlings gone at work and it was replaced by a Mack with the brine tank in the back fully loaded with the brine, wonder if we are brining for the freezing rain chance Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 So let me get this right... 0z euro still focuses on the 3rd wave, 0z gfs 2nd wave.. GGEM focuses on the 3rd wave.. 6z GFS develops the. 3rd wave, but wayyy offshore and is weaker with the 2nd wave?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The canadian is the best bet if anyone wants snow. Yea pretty much, you need a stronger 2nd wave to drag the colder air down. Then you need enough separation to allow for the other storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 So let me get this right... 0z euro still focuses on the 3rd wave, 0z gfs 2nd wave.. GGEM focuses on the 3rd wave.. 6z GFS develops the. 3rd wave, but wayyy offshore and is weaker with the 2nd wave?? Gefs focuses on the 3rd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 So let me get this right... 0z euro still focuses on the 3rd wave, 0z gfs 2nd wave.. GGEM focuses on the 3rd wave.. 6z GFS develops the. 3rd wave, but wayyy offshore and is weaker with the 2nd wave?? what a cluster _______. someday all models will agree with a storm from start to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS has moved away from a big storm, Euro hanging on but with a weakening trend. Too warm in this area in any case but will set the stage for any xmas threats. .We may be better off with a moderate storm that brings in cold air without suppressing the next threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Gefs focuses on the 3rd wave. they only have 2... 1st one then the 2nd one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The canadian is the best bet if anyone wants snow. You sure about that? Tombo probably could find a layer of the atmoshpere thats above frz for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You sure about that? Tombo probably could find a layer of the atmoshpere thats above frz for the city It's always rainy in Philadelphia. Even when it's snowing, that's just an illusion. Oh it gonna rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You sure about that? Tombo probably could find a layer of the atmoshpere thats above frz for the city lol, no that should be snow with the heavy precip rates...only area would be BL issues lol...but its the ggem which is a bad model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You sure about that? Tombo probably could find a layer of the atmoshpere thats above frz for the city tom is the new adam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 tom is the new adam Tom is a realist...to many people look at the 850s and get all gooed up over it when its south of them when the BL is torched....just ask ray martin, i had to teach him all about the BL stuff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Tom is a realist...to many people look at the 850s and get all gooed up over it when its south of them when the BL is torched....just ask ray martin, i had to teach him all about the BL stuff.. see you used the adams T word, i like to view the 2m maps on gfs run to help my gooed up eyes . yeah i know more to it then that thanks Tom for all you do here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.