RedSky Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro ensembles are more in line with the 0z run, so colder further southeast than 12z op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 The canadain at 12z decided heck with another wave why not pop a secondary with wave 1. Pretty much off on it's own though but which model isn't now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The canadain at 12z decided heck with another wave why not pop a secondary with wave 1. Pretty much off on it's own though but which model isn't now. that outcome is all rain though for this area outside the pocs and maybe lehigh valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Sorry to to be too obtuse, but I thought we would need some stronger teleconnection signals to get cold air in here for the storm since the polar vortex will be on the other side of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Sorry to to be too obtuse, but I thought we would need some stronger teleconnection signals to get cold air in here for the storm since the polar vortex will be on the other side of the world. Cold air is lacking, not going to deny that. But if things were laid out like some of the gfs runs had yesterday morning and monday night that could be how you would get a snow event towards the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro ensembles are more in line with the 0z run, so colder further southeast than 12z op nvm, i just saw them for myself they are definitely better than the op. you have to remember its a mean...their are definitely members to the west with the bagginess in the isobars, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Baby steps in the right direction on the 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Baby steps in the right direction on the 18z? You could say that but in general it is much different then the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Sorry to to be too obtuse, but I thought we would need some stronger teleconnection signals to get cold air in here for the storm since the polar vortex will be on the other side of the world. yes, the PV is over yonder, and the PNA is less than ideal, but the ao is negative, as well as a nicely placed west based -NAO. not every storm can be -EPO, +PNA, -AO, -NAO, (unless its feb 10' !!!)... the NAO block is all that we have to lean on. we're walking a fine line. and if this set up was early November, id write it off. But, there's legs on this. Just gonna be a thread the needle type system as far as track and intensity goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Just want to make sure everyone has their bar set low. Even though the synoptic setup looks alright, the lack of cold air around is going to hurt places especially from philly metro on south and east. Anything can happen with this storm, but don't get all down if this system is only a rain event for us. The pattern afterwards looks a heck of a lot better and cold air wouldn't be an issue if a storm were to come along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 lack of cold air period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 If we don't get a pseudo 50/50 it will torch us, man that is a bomb on the EURO though. tombo @ 192 hrs is it still precipitating in our area because it looks cold enough at that point. I'm going off free maps of course. 240hr EURO doesn't look good though...It's cold but it looks transient and would torch a few days later prob. Just saw this..it may be cold enough, but it amounts to .1-.25 in a 6 hr period which is a snow that doesn't stick. If it were in the 20s, different story but not at or above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Just saw this..it may be cold enough, but it amounts to .1-.25 in a 6 hr period which is a snow that doesn't stick. If it were in the 20s, different story but not at or above freezing. Tom, while the cold air source is limited, i think we're about 2 steps ahead of ourselves here. we've had more questions than answers today by the models as far as the evolution of this time period. But to get into specifics of thermal profiles when we don't even know which shortwave is our threat, seems pointless. Again, not saying you're wrong ( i think its a very valid concern), just think we're better off determining the evolution of this pattern. 1st,2nd or 3rd wave... i quite frankly, have no idea. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 also, not sure if it's pertinent to this time period or just after, but this thing is honking Dec 2010: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I see alot of level-headedness in this subforum. I think most people realize (at this point) its a marginal set up at best. Still, its better than a GLC or OTS. Bring the storm just east of us and maybe someone in the subforum lucks out in the end. Sure beats these mostly cloudy days in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I see alot of level-headedness in this subforum. I think most people realize (at this point) its a marginal set up at best. Still, its better than a GLC or OTS. Bring the storm just east of us and maybe someone in the subforum lucks out in the end. Sure beats these mostly cloudy days in the 40s. Its December. Mostly cloudy days in the 40s is (gasp) normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Its December. Mostly cloudy days in the 40s is (gasp) normal Nah........too cloudy. Like "State College" cloudy. We usually can bank on partial sunshine atleast. It's been dreary lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Allentown has reported one "CLEAR" (0-3 scale) day this month. PHL has reported zero. Depressing....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Allentown has reported one "CLEAR" (0-3 scale) day this month. PHL has reported zero. Depressing....... Impressively low for that ASOS ceilometer... a more realistic total is 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Nah........too cloudy. Like "State College" cloudy. We usually can bank on partial sunshine atleast. It's been dreary lately. Today wasn't too bad...high overcast wasn't too terrible of a downer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Today wasn't too bad...high overcast wasn't too terrible of a downer. Matter of opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 IMO, (probably was discussed earlier but I'm jumping in on page 3) it looks like the Euro is struggling a fair amount in handling the various systems between Sun & Wed... There are really only going to be two storms -- first on Sunday, second on Tues (or Wed). Given that the first wave continues to look rather weak/modest I'm not sure the second storm is going to hug the coast ultimately...I can see a bit more inland track or a Miller B setup where the secondary fires off of Jersey but we get mild air throughout the region. We really need wave 1 to be stronger in order to pull down some colder air to give us a shot at making this work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 And I think we're losing the battle with wave 1 becoming a 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Tom, while the cold air source is limited, i think we're about 2 steps ahead of ourselves here. we've had more questions than answers today by the models as far as the evolution of this time period. But to get into specifics of thermal profiles when we don't even know which shortwave is our threat, seems pointless. Again, not saying you're wrong ( i think its a very valid concern), just think we're better off determining the evolution of this pattern. 1st,2nd or 3rd wave... i quite frankly, have no idea. LOL. i agree, but im saying i don't want people to think we are primed for a big snowstorm when analogs like the boxing day storm are getting thrown out there. We pretty much need a couple things to go in our favor before we even start to think big snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Was that you who texted me, Tom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Was that you who texted me, Tom? Yup ray, i was just testing it out. For when we are getting plastered with snow back here i can send you snow pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yup ray, i was just testing it out. For when we are getting plastered with snow back here i can send you snow pics. I should do likewise, though we rarely get "plastered"... maybe when we get snow in October or June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I should do likewise, though we rarely get "plastered"... maybe when we get snow in October or June Well october and november have been covered here already so that not big deal...june is impressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 i agree, but im saying i don't want people to think we are primed for a big snowstorm when analogs like the boxing day storm are getting thrown out there. We pretty much need a couple things to go in our favor before we even start to think big snow event. This. Not to mention that, prior to the 12/26/10 storm, all but two days that month (Dec. 1st and 12th) were AOB (at or below) normal. This December, not so much. Then again, it is early so we need to let it play out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yup ray, i was just testing it out. For when we are getting plastered with snow back here i can send you snow pics. Hahahahhahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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