December 18-20 Winter Storm Discussion

[Jim Martin]

The National Weather Service in Cleveland is starting to talk about the potential storm for next weekend (posted at 12:20 PM est today)...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL TRENDING TOWARD RIDGE BUILDING IN THE

CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY DRAMATICALLY BY THURSDAY AS VIGOROUS

VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS

WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND BECOME SOMEWHAT

NEGATIVELY TILTED. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN

THE BASE OF THE TROUGH RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR RAPID CYCLOGENESIS

TO OCCUR AT THE SURFACE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE

DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OVER OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY

FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL TAP INTO SOME ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH

AND HAVE FAIRLY DEEP BROAD MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ONCE THE

COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS...THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME

OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO ARRIVE IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR

THE WEEKEND INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILL TRANSITION FROM WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY

INTO SOME RAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

THEN...ONCE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE THEIR FIRST

MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON PROVIDED THE MODELS CONTINUE TO

HOLD ON TO THIS STORM SYSTEM IN ITS PRESENT FORM.

LOOKING FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND

CHRISTMAS...POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE

INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WARM UP EXPECTED. WILL KEEP AN

EYE ON THIS PATTERN TO SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS.

[Chargers09]

Dead?

[Hoosier]

Wave is recently ashore and small changes could make the difference between nothing of consequence and a band of sticking snow so I'd give it another run or two.

[DAFF]

lol

Any updates on this timeframe. Tried to find it on EC with no luck.