Hoosier Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GEFS mean looks a little interesting but I'd rather see the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GEFS mean looks a little interesting but I'd rather see the individual members. Ok, individual members are in. One of them is a total nuclear solution and kinda skews the mean. A couple others are so so especially for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'll take a lock in for the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'll take a lock in for the 06z GFS. modest ensemble agreement...we'll see if 12z confirms hope for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 You eastern Michigan peeps will really like the 12z GEM. Looks like you get dumped on pretty good between 90-105hrs. Also clips northwest Ohio/northeast Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 You eastern Michigan peeps will really like the 12z GEM. Looks like you get dumped on pretty good between 90-105hrs. Also clips northwest Ohio/northeast Indiana. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 You eastern Michigan peeps will really like the 12z GEM. Looks like you get dumped on pretty good between 90-105hrs. Also clips northwest Ohio/northeast Indiana. Dont see it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Dont see it... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 DTX and CLE are not hyping this system in their latest AFD's. Even when a low comes right at Toledo, it can't figure out how to make snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The Canadian seems partial to the East side of Michigan per Hoosier's model picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 12z Euro definitely a bit more amped early week. A little snow in Chicago around 84-90 hours...the horror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 12z Euro definitely a bit more amped early week. A little snow in Chicago around 84-90 hours...the horror. As long as we make it till the 16th and long that record, i'm fine with a tenth or two of slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I see what's happening, along with rumors of the Apocalypse, things are lining up just right so Chicago gets its first measurable snow shortly after they would set their record for latest first measurable, and Milwaukee will do the same. Our date: December 26th lol. Anyways, way too much uncertainty exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Good to see the Euro on board for the Monday system, maybe we will see our first measurable snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 lol Winter of discontent continues....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Winter of discontent continues....... Well, at least the models aren't jerking us around. No 970mb bombs over State College, PA that never had a snowball's chance in hell at verifying. It was either an EC focused event, and now, maybe one focused to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Perhaps Lucy will let Charlie Brown kick the ball this time !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Just a reminder, no graphics from pay sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Well, at least the models aren't jerking us around. No 970mb bombs over State College, PA that never had a snowball's chance in hell at verifying. It was either an EC focused event, and now, maybe one focused to our west. Either a system goes to far south for us and were left cold and dry or a system goes to our west and we awarm up and get rain. We just can't seem to win in T.O in weather and sports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 12z Euro looks really nice too. Pretty good dumping for Detroit/Northern Indiana/Toronto. I am now mildly but catiously interested in this storm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Either a system goes to far south for us and were left cold and dry or a system goes to our west and we awarm up and get rain. We just can't seem to win in T.O in weather and sports You're forgetting the Arrrrrggggooooos! Canadian model doesn't bode well for Ontario, barely even any back-side precipitation on the system. Maybe some lake effect as this thing passes if 850mb temps can get a little cooler. Never mind looks like surface temps will be too high. GFS gives us a shot at some snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 You're forgetting the Arrrrrggggooooos! Canadian model doesn't bode well for Ontario, barely even any back-side precipitation on the system. Maybe some lake effect as this thing passes if 850mb temps can get a little cooler. Never mind looks like surface temps will be too high. GFS gives us a shot at some snow: Argos don't count haha. I'm counting on the jays to make some noise next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 12z Euro looks really nice too. Pretty good dumping for Detroit/Northern Indiana/Toronto. I am now mildly but catiously interested in this storm again. Wow, the Euro must look really different from the GFS. According to that model, this storm is mostly rain. Hope the Euro is right. It does look like arctic air rushes in by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Yeah, I wish we could calm things down. It's hard to be optimistic with how things have gone but this type of setup with fast flow/multiple waves is notorious for model fits so something is telling me to not throw in the towel on snow chances just yet. Good call. Just enough separation between waves being shown on most guidance today for Monday-Tuesday. This doesn't have the makings of a big snow storm but if there is enough room for that wave to amplify like today there could be a swath of a few inches. I'm more excited about the end of the week but that's for another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well, at least the models aren't jerking us around. No 970mb bombs over State College, PA that never had a snowball's chance in hell at verifying. It was either an EC focused event, and now, maybe one focused to our west. It wasn't too far from that when Tim started this thread. A 984mb low over south central OH: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 0z GFS looks more like the Euro now. GGEM has a strong west GLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 0z GFS looks more like the Euro now. GGEM has a strong west GLC. Wrong storm, in fact, this may not even really be a storm per se. The thread was made back when there looked to be a burgeoning storm early to mid next week, when the real threat for the region may be later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 For some reason my phone isnt copy/pasting: this morning (12/15) LOT AFD has some relevant discussion on a Thursday (12/20) potential event. Not much but the phrase "potential winter storm" coming from the LOT guys got me a little tingly. 327 AM...MULTIPLE FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES THROUGH THE PERIOD THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION NEXT THURSDAY... BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE SPECIFICS AND TIMING STILL VARY... ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FROM THIS DISTANCE WITH A DEEPENING STORM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OR NEAR NORTHERN IL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO NEAR DETROIT FRIDAY MORNING. EXACT TRACK WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON THE SPECIFICS BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MILD AND WET UNTIL THE LOW PASSES AND PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW. OF COURSE A SHIFT OF JUST 50 OR 100 MILES WILL COMPLETELY CHANGE THE FORECAST. THUS CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM REGARDING THE STORM... BUT LOW REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING. ONE ADDITIONAL ITEM OF NOTE IS HOW STRONG THE WIND FIELD COULD END UP BEING WITH THIS STORM AND IF...OR WHERE...ANY SNOW DOES FALL...WINTER WILL CERTAINLY ARRIVE/RETURN IN FULL FORCE. CURRENTLY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS 35-40 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE WHICH WOULD CAUSE PROBLEMS REGARDLESS OF PRECIP TYPE. CMS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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