TimChgo9 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The GFS and ECM suites remain at odds (and, it wouldn't be fun if they agreed at this point, would it? I want to earn my snow, and don't want to sit here 7-8 days out knowing I'll get it...ok, enough of me rambling) with how they handle the energy moving into the western US. However, there have been some semblances of coming to a consensus on this weekend's system as well as the development of a strongly west based -NAO this weekend. First off, the GFS and the first wave: Initially, the GFS showed a strong shortwave over the upper MW Friday into Saturday that suppressed the first southwestern shortwave ejecting east over the weekend. This resulted in the model likely becoming too zonal across the central and eastern US into early next week. Now, the model is closer to the Euro in the handling of the first wave, driving it farther north and maintaining a bit more of an amplified pattern heading into next week: An interesting change is the now relatively well agreed upon development of a west based -NAO as mentioned above this weekend. Assuming the first wave comes out in one piece, it should do its part to lower heights and bring in marginal cold for the Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, and with a potential west based -NAO on the table, this should allow any second storm to track farther south than the first storm and have a bit more cold to play with. However, the airmass will be marginal, with much of the eastern 2/3rds of N. America remaining above average in the temperature department even after the first wave moves east this weekend. One area where the two suites still differ, likely resulting in the difference in solutions for this second, potentially more wintry storm, is in how much energy crashes into the NW US this weekend and how much of it ejects east. The two suites of ensembles above actually are now in much better agreement now in placement and strength of ridging in the Pacific and placement of the polar vortex north of Alaska this weekend...the GFS suite is just in general a bit weaker with the energy diving into the coast on Sunday. As we look ahead towards Monday, the ensembles continue to diverge. The GFS ensembles are a bit farther south with the first shortwave, with the -NAO exerting a bit more of an influence on the GFS ensembles than the ECM ensembles. This likely contributes to, along with a weaker initial system diving into the west, the GFS suite in general bringing out a weaker, more strung out piece of energy early next week, with in general a farther south and weaker solution than the European ensembles. However, it should be noted, the GFS suite has trended towards the Euro suite WRT the amount of energy diving into the west this weekend, even if it isn't all the way there yet. The European suite is a bit more aggressive in building ridging back in towards western Alaska this weekend on a temporary basis than the GFS, which may be resulting in some additional amplification on the west coast within that model suite. Either way, a ton of energy will crash in off the Pacific over the next few days, and stormier weather should result. Given festering convection between the dateline and India, I'd favor the Pacific jet breaking behind the current jet streak over the western Pacific, which will favor building heights over the N. Central Pacific until convection becomes re-focused over the Indian Ocean next week. So, in short: -First shortwave this weekend, while it may feature some snows for the far northwestern portions of our sub-forum, will be more of a sacrificial wave that will help weaken eastern US ridging some and force any systems following behind it to track farther south. -West based -NAO will help maintain lower than normal heights over the Great Lakes behind this first system and will help hold in marginal cold air. -The amount of energy diving into the western US this weekend is paramount. Less energy means a more strung out solution with less snow chances, while more energy diving into the west and ejecting out in one piece means a more amplified solution with more widespread snow chances is more likely. As always, small scale features that the models will not resolve properly this far in advance such as potential wave interference and truly how strong the Pacific energy is, regardless of the overall pattern, may throw wrenches into this threat, but the pattern supports the first widespread "snowstorm" threat for this sub-forum next Tuesday-Wednesday. Thanks for that write up, makes things easier to understand. Your last part, about the small scale features the the models don't resolve properly makes quite a bit of sense too. I don't claim to understand everything that goes on here, but write ups like yours make it easier on us "weather noobs". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 It's over. Accuweather has called it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Off Topic: Number 25 EPIC! LOL http://www.buzzfeed.com/daves4/the-most-important-lessons-we-learned-in-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I frankly am finding these runs a laugh. They need to slowdown in the worst way. You don't put a storm under a ridge like that. I agree as of right now the models are a mess with how they're placing the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 It's over. Accuweather has called it. OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Since there's talks of a southern storm. Reminds me of this video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Since there's talks of a southern storm. Reminds me of this video. Just wanted to say thank you for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 good lord...what a disaster run. First storm goes east, perfect track...no cold air, no nw-sector precip. Second storm cuts west again...lol I'd rather have it east though. Seems like everything comes west this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 It's over. Accuweather has called it. hmmm.. Now i feel alot better about my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 If only.. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 If only.. :weenie: I really really hope this is latching onto something, and my pessimistic posts will be bump-trolled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I really really hope this is latching onto something, and my pessimistic posts will be bump-trolled. We would never do such a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 We need the euro to show that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GGEM is better than nothing. I wish the flow wasn't so noisy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GGEM is better than nothing. I wish the flow wasn't so noisy. Honestly? I'll take that tracking over my head vs a coastal. Coastals in Dec just always give me bad vibes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 One analog that's being tossed around (from the NE forum) is Dec. 10-12, 1992. Looking at the old NARR maps, various parts of that setup for that monster storm are showing up on some model runs. Toronto got about a foot of heavy, wet snow but areas just to the east got almost 2 feet. Temperatures during that storm hovered around freezing or slightly above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 00z Euro looks junky through 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I woke up, checked all the 00z models and quite frankly the closer we get to next week the more confusing and cloudy all the solutions become. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 00z runs do nothing. All the globals stay on their trends(which are different and the ECMWF weaker). I will give the GGEM a cracker if it is right. Considering the flow, it may not be far off. 6z GFS is monster!!!!! LOL a real monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 quality drive-by zing I am pretty concerned about what will happen in this area. I will be driving about 1300 miles over to Cleveland on two days. I am always wondering what will happen during the time I'm driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Of course, the models are trending towards keeping the shortwaves too close together for one to really amplify. That may still change but it's looking quite a bit like another potential, this one more for the southern lakes and OV, is going to be wasted: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The PAC JET retires another mark. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The euro long range FINALLY breaks off the PAC JET. Actually some decent support that a relatively cold period sets up prior to x-mas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The PAC JET retires another mark. You realize that we do need a strong Pacific Jet to get more vigorous systems right? It's more the orientation and the tendency of the lead waves to be stronger that is screwing us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Weaker Pacific Jet and a strong baroclinic zone over the Mid-section of the country is what we need. But definitely the raging Pacific jet is being a demon lately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Of course, the models are trending towards keeping the shortwaves too close together for one to really amplify. That may still change but it's looking quite a bit like another potential, this one more for the southern lakes and OV, is going to be wasted: Yeah, I wish we could calm things down. It's hard to be optimistic with how things have gone but this type of setup with fast flow/multiple waves is notorious for model fits so something is telling me to not throw in the towel on snow chances just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looks like this storm will miss me here in Toronto. Looks to be a U.S. special. This december could tie 1877 and 2006 for snow futility in Toronto at the rate we're going. I'd love to see a study on snowfall in Toronto. I'd be willing to hazard a guess that it has declined precipitously in the past few decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Interesting 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 That is some laughable continuity on the 00z Euro at 108 hrs vs. the 12z at 120. I wouldn't be surprised to see more model dancing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 That is some laughable continuity on the 00z Euro at 108 hrs vs. the 12z at 120. I wouldn't be surprised to see more model dancing. Yeah I was just checking that out, literally all over the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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