Harry Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 There is some blocking i suppose but still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 00z GFS has a nice storm...for New England. Seems suspiciously progressive to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Great post by OHWx putting it more into layman's terms than I probably could. When I talk weather with a lot of friends and folks I know they just stare at me like "what are you talking about?" I do have some worries the building cold and the jet streak relaxing could bring energy out in pieces which is why I said I'm not ready to guarantee a big snow storm just yet. Everything on the board that shows up though is hard to ignore and screams a good snow for someone sooner than later though. Just don't jump off the edge guys and gals, we will get our chances somewhere, this Winter WILL be more of a Winter than last.... Words to live by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Great post by OHWx putting it more into layman's terms than I probably could. When I talk weather with a lot of friends and folks I know they just stare at me like "what are you talking about?" I do have some worries the building cold and the jet streak relaxing could bring energy out in pieces which is why I said I'm not ready to guarantee a big snow storm just yet. Everything on the board that shows up though is hard to ignore and screams a good snow for someone sooner than later though. Just don't jump off the edge guys and gals, we will get our chances somewhere, this Winter WILL be more of a Winter than last.... Thanks. I agree with the bolded. There is still enough that can go wrong at this range, mainly the energy coming out strung out and not spinning up a bigger storm that throws moisture into the cold, that we can't guarantee anything yet. This would have to be a perfect thread the needle job to end up being a good east coast storm with the lack of strong blocking and troughing over the western US...we'd need enough energy to come out to spin up a good storm, but would need to keep it neutrally tilted until it gets to the Apps or else it cuts through the OV/Lakes. If there is a storm, I'd certainly favor it impacting us with snow over the east coast. If this comes out as a massive bowling ball, as some have said, this would certainly open up possibilities farther south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Thanks. I agree with the bolded. There is still enough that can go wrong at this range, mainly the energy coming out strung out and not spinning up a bigger storm that throws moisture into the cold, that we can't guarantee anything yet. This would have to be a perfect thread the needle job to end up being a good east coast storm with the lack of strong blocking and troughing over the western US...we'd need enough energy to come out to spin up a good storm, but would need to keep it neutrally tilted until it gets to the Apps or else it cuts through the OV/Lakes. If there is a storm, I'd certainly favor it impacting us with snow over the east coast. If this comes out as a massive bowling ball, as some have said, this would certainly open up possibilities farther south and east. Doesn't a West-based -NAO scream Noreaster? This is why I'm being a negative nellie; all the signs seem to point to suppression; most of the models (except the Euro Ensembles, which I guess is good to have on our side), the west based -NAO signal that is being talked about in all the East Coast-oriented forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Doesn't a West-based -NAO scream Noreaster? This is why I'm being a negative nellie; all the signs seem to point to suppression; most of the models (except the Euro Ensembles, which I guess is good to have on our side), the west based -NAO signal that is being talked about in all the East Coast-oriented forums. Yes and no. The -NAO is not terribly strong as modeled right now. There should be room for any initial storm to cut north towards the OV/Lakes, and then potentially transferring to the east coast. The best chances for snow in the east are likely in the northern and interior Mid Atlantic along with New England with this system. If the -NAO continues to come on stronger and the first wave is forced to slow down and track a bit farther south/west I'd be a little bit more worried about the 2nd wave being too suppressed for a good portion of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yes and no. The -NAO is not terribly strong as modeled right now. There should be room for any initial storm to cut north towards the OV/Lakes, and then potentially transferring to the east coast. The best chances for snow in the east are likely in the northern and interior Mid Atlantic along with New England with this system. If the -NAO continues to come on stronger and the first wave is forced to slow down and track a bit farther south/west I'd be a little bit more worried about the 2nd wave being too suppressed for a good portion of us. Well it is true that the first wave is trending north right now (also trending to be a rainstorm even in the Northwoods of Wisconsin), so I see your point. My only real concern would be a strong -NAO that resulted in 20s and 30s and brown grass for the following week or two. That's not likely to be the case, but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro ends up East coast as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 00z Euro is sorta messy but I think it's a step in the right direction...I mean it wouldn't be hard to be better than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro ends up East coast as well Looks like it gets to eastern KY and then starts to transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Geez non stop action for the EC on the Euro run through 180hr. It's active, just not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro ends up East coast as well That is a crazy run.. Weekend system spins up another that heads for E.OH and then jumps to the coast which becomes a blocker for the main event fast on it's heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Thankfully most of this is beyond 96hrs so yeah alot can and probably will change between now and then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Canada reloads with lots of cold air after about D9 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Canada reloads with lots of cold air after about D9 on the GFS. Decent +PNA/-EPO ridging and thus a cross polar flow appears to try and set up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I quit....No more long range forecasting...only 1-3days out... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro ends up East coast as well Ensembles end up pretty close to where they were on the 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 the word 'cluster' comes to mind. Pretty wild 120 hr period on the euro. GGEM seems more realistic. One low in KS 998mb to Chicago, hits block, heads east off the NE coast. end of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I quit....No more long range forecasting...only 1-3days out... LOL Good thinking. Best to sit back and "lol" at the range of weenie or unrealistic solutions in the medium/long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 you guys aren't going to like the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 it's just so damn messy. Too much junk in Canada and the west. No decent ridge can establish and therefore no decent trough. So it's sloppy and convoluted not too mention the cold air source iis stale polar crap. If we can get all the scattered energy leading up to this...organized and filed, we might have a shot at a decent event somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 good lord...what a disaster run. First storm goes east, perfect track...no cold air, no nw-sector precip. Second storm cuts west again...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 12z Euro is gonna be a big something. Low is already about 980 mb near the NC/VA border at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 12z Euro is gonna be a big something. Low is already about 980 mb near the NC/VA border at 168 hours. Looks like cold air is still a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 12z Euro is gonna be a big something. Low is already about 980 mb near the NC/VA border at 168 hours. got one hell of a storm cranking that far east and the 0 850 line is just to my west. You almost have to wonder how suspect that is. But here we go again, with a totally different solution. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Looks like cold air is still a problem. Not abundant for sure but looks like the interior northeast would get blasted on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Not abundant for sure but looks like the interior northeast would get blasted on that run. GFS was a hit for the interior interior NE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 got one hell of a storm cranking that far east and the 0 850 line is just to my west. You almost have to wonder how suspect that is. But here we go again, with a totally different solution. lol Well, it's not like we haven't been seeing something like that on previous runs. There's just not a lot of cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 well I guess if there is any good news for us over here in the OV it's that the euro is hellbent on bringing a low somewhere between the OV and the coast next week. Only queston is whether it runs up the OV. apps, or coastal plain and whether its a jumper, runner, double-barrel, or bomb.....oh, and if there will be any cold air around. Other than that looks solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Well, it's not like we haven't been seeing something like that on previous runs. There's just not a lot of cold air around. hard to believe 850's wouldn't crash HARD with something like that ....assuming any precip was still this far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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