December 18-20 Winter Storm Discussion

[Nelson]

If I'm not mistaken, ensembles are only as good as their initialization of current parameters. I think BI used to mention garbage in/garbage out when it came to the initialization of guidance in general. So as long as there aren't too many initialization errors the ensembles should have a much better grasp if you take an average of the more dominant members. Ensembles certainly aren't perfect, but they usually do pretty good at showing which side the op run should be leaning towards.

Good point. Speaking of Baro, is he around any more ?Always enjoyed his posts.

Sorry for the OT

[beavis1729]

Good point. Speaking of Baro, is he around any more ?Always enjoyed his posts.

Sorry for the OT

Baro posts occasionally in the central/western forum...and lives in Anchorage now.

[hm8]

18z GFS is a no.

[Chinook]

You guys have more winter storm threads than winter storms.

[Thundersnow12]

You guys have more winter storm threads than winter storms.

+1

[A-L-E-K]

You guys have more winter storm threads than winter storms.

quality drive-by zing

[Chicago WX]

Still alive.

12z Euro ensemble quote and image.

Primary into OH Valley 174hr...redevelopment off the Mid Atl coast 180-186. Then a sub 1000mb low moving NE inside the BM. Pretty juiced with QPF for the ec ens being that far out. Many closed sfc isobars too...it almost looks like a deterministic solution.

[michsnowfreak]

Still alive.

12z Euro ensemble quote and image.

Sounds good. Also I noted a few of the usual "euro torch at 240, winter over" type of comments floating around the board...the euro ensemble mean has us in the ice box at 240.

Im wondering if this could be one of those times when the models lose the storm and bring it back. Bill Deedler said years back at the NWS they noticed a theme the GFS storm at 240 would be lost then resurface at 120hr.

[michsnowfreak]

Ensemble's and ensemble means mean little when upper levels will probably go through some big changes.

I think everybody is so desperate for anything, they are over examining long ranges that shouldn't be taken to seriously.

Speaking for myself, I dont overexamine anything. The only reason I even mentioned the ensemble mean at 240 is because its very cold and Ive seen numerous posts already today about the "torch" on the euro at 240. But of course, THAT kind of talk is fully acceptable here and nothing would have been said had not the storm or cold on the ensembles been brought up to counterpoint

[harrisale]

Given the number of storm threads I think its fair to say this subforum is pretty desperate. I am no exception. This storm holds the last shot at a white Christmas here. If we're lucky, Southern Ontario may get some moderate lake effect snow after this thing passes.

Ensemble's and ensemble means mean little when upper levels will probably go through some big changes.

I think everybody is so desperate for anything, they are over examining long ranges that shouldn't be taken to seriously.

[michsnowfreak]

Given the number of storm threads I think its fair to say this subforum is pretty desperate. I am no exception. This storm holds the last shot at a white Christmas here. If we're lucky, Southern Ontario may get some moderate lake effect snow after this thing passes.

Now I agree about the storm threads. I dont know why we dont keep stuff like that in the longterm discussion threads until 4-5 days out. But i dont make those decisions.

Do you celebrate Christmas on Dec 19th? This storm, whether it pans out or not, is not your last shot at a white Christmas.

[Stebo]

Speaking for myself, I dont overexamine anything. The only reason I even mentioned the ensemble mean at 240 is because its very cold and Ive seen numerous posts already today about the "torch" on the euro at 240. But of course, THAT kind of talk is fully acceptable here and nothing would have been said had not the storm or cold on the ensembles been brought up to counterpoint

I'd be cautious of using the ensemble mean at 240hr for indication of torch or not. When it is out that far the mean ends up closer to climatology than not. Not to say it is right or wrong in this case but use with caution. Plus this is more of a long term discussion point than a point in this storm thread.

[michsnowfreak]

I'd be cautious of using the ensemble mean at 240hr for indication of torch or not. When it is out that far the mean ends up closer to climatology than not. Not to say it is right or wrong in this case but use with caution. Plus this is more of a long term discussion point than a point in this storm thread.

Yeah I didnt mean to stray OT and Im certainly no butt-kisser of ensemble means (or any models for that matter), but its now at the point where you can NOT point out anything good without one of the debbies rushing in to put the kabosh on it. I can GUARENTEE that if the latest OP euro had a great storm but the emsemble mean was blah someone would be very quick to rush in and post that the ensemble mean being weak is a bad sign, this storm is doomed.

But storm or no, I agree these 10-day out storm threads are too much. We already had to split the previous storm thread into two, and this storm is STILL a week out.

[Chicago WX]

Some of you would suck the fun out of dating a super model.

Seek help. Seriously.

[hm8]

Some of you would suck the fun out of dating a super model.

Seek help. Seriously.

I think the person that would let a weather board suck the fun out of dating a super model is the one that needs help

Alternatively,

Some of you would suck the fun out of dating a super model.

Seek help. Seriously.

Super model? Like the Euro?

[Stebo]

I think the person that would let a weather board suck the fun out of dating a super model is the one that needs help

Alternatively,

Super model? Like the Euro?

Double win.

[Chicago WX]

Ok. But these long range threads are the promise of dating a super model when in fact, it turns into Stanley Kubrick's version of Wendy from the Shining. Sorta makes the purpose go "limp".

Hey, I started the thing because people said the other thread was cluttered. But give it to 120 hours out and then you can regal in its failure.

I think the person that would let a weather board suck the fun out of dating a super model is the one that needs help

[Hoosier]

Yeah I didnt mean to stray OT and Im certainly no butt-kisser of ensemble means (or any models for that matter), but its now at the point where you can NOT point out anything good without one of the debbies rushing in to put the kabosh on it. I can GUARENTEE that if the latest OP euro had a great storm but the emsemble mean was blah someone would be very quick to rush in and post that the ensemble mean being weak is a bad sign, this storm is doomed.

But storm or no, I agree these 10-day out storm threads are too much. We already had to split the previous storm thread into two, and this storm is STILL a week out.

I agree that 10 days is too much. The original thread was created a week in advance for a storm that has looked like mostly rain for 95% of posters here, so naturally the discussion moved toward the second event when it was still a week and a half out.

[Indystorm]

IWX stating the obvious at present on current model runs by saying this system will be far south so as not to affect the northern IN area. Look for things to change tomorrow.

[buckeye]

I don't get this talk. This is IT...it's all we got. It's not like we've got 1 or 2 shots before this. It's not like there's anything to confuse? Bring it on...I want to see it all!!!! I want to probe the dgex and the nogaps like an alien-abducted trailer park whore...I wanna see the korean humping the brazilian while the jma gets a reach-around from the eperimental FIM. I want nothing left on the table...IT'S ALL OR NOTHING until someone in this god foresaken 1500 mile wide SUBforum gets a damn snowstorm!!!!!!

just say'n

[McDude]

As a observer of this site I see nothing wrong with making these threads as long as the system continuously shows up. Nothing else to talk about so why not?

[Harry]

I don't get this talk. This is IT...it's all we got. It's not like we've got 1 or 2 shots before this. It's not like there's anything to confuse? Bring it on...I want to see it all!!!! I want to probe the dgex and the nogaps like an alien-abducted trailer park whore...I wanna see the korean humping the brazilian while the jma gets a reach-around from the eperimental FIM. I want nothing left on the table...IT'S ALL OR NOTHING until someone in this god foresaken 1500 mile wide SUBforum gets a damn snowstorm!!!!!!

just say'n

FTMFW!!

[Justin]

Spoke with a couple good forecasters today in the area and their general take on things right now is they believe nothing on the models beyond about the three to five day window. Unfortunately I'd have to agree with them as well.

The pattern certainly has/is wanting to turn stormier it would appear but far to often lately we see things just come undone in the last few days leading up to an event. Certainly some folks in MN/WI would disagree but for most on this subforum its the truth.

I do like the idea of a couple decent shots of snow for most here before Xmas... models are certainly consistent in showing something and at this point its all we can ask for.

With the jet as active as it is and the deep cold building to the North it is truly only a matter of time before a whopper of a snow storm hits someone around here and soon. I truly believe looking at the energy in the jet and the progged energy down the road and the overall pattern we will have a blizzard, perhaps a monster of one, before New Years. I wanna say book it but don't know if I want to get that gutsy yet.

[TugHillMatt]

As a observer of this site I see nothing wrong with making these threads as long as the system continuously shows up. Nothing else to talk about so why not?

I totally agree! In my opinion, it deals with too many thinking "they are in charge" and only "the elite few" should be starting threads. At the same time, I believe it takes up board bandwidth? (or some computer mumbo jumbo that I don't know much about).

[Harry]

Spoke with a couple good forecasters today in the area and their general take on things right now is they believe nothing on the models beyond about the three to five day window. Unfortunately I'd have to agree with them as well.

The pattern certainly has/is wanting to turn stormier it would appear but far to often lately we see things just come undone in the last few days leading up to an event. Certainly some folks in MN/WI would disagree but for most on this subforum its the truth.

I do like the idea of a couple decent shots of snow for most here before Xmas... models are certainly consistent in showing something and at this point its all we can ask for.

With the jet as active as it is and the deep cold building to the North it is truly only a matter of time before a whopper of a snow storm hits someone around here and soon. I truly believe looking at the energy in the jet and the progged energy down the road and the overall pattern we will have a blizzard, perhaps a monster of one, before New Years. I wanna say book it but don't know if I want to get that gutsy yet.

One of the guys at GRR was talking about this and thus all the jet energy in the am AFD..

OVERALL WHAT SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING A STRONG EAST ASIAN JET

ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG STORM COMING OFF CHINA/JAPAN HEADS ACROSS THE

PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE

UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING HIGH OVER EASTERN GREENLAND FORCES THE POLAR

VORTEX FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA TO NEAR SIBERIA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH THAT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR FOLLOWS IT ACROSS THE NORTH

POLE. WHICH IS WHY WE WILL NOT BE SEEING SERIOUSLY COLD

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

MEANWHILE THAT EAST ASIAN JET CORE CROSSES THE DATELINE LATE IN THE

WEEK WITH A NEARLY 200 KNOT JET CORE. YOU JUST KNOW A JET CORE LIKE

THAT...WITH ALL THE ENERGY... MEANS BUSINESS. THAT BOOTS THE SYSTEM

CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA EAST. IT THEN CROSSES THE CONUS

LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO OUR AREA THIS COMING WEEKEND. IT IS THAT

SYSTEM... FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA... THAT BECOMES OUR RAIN STORM FOR

SATURDAY. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME THAT THE TIMING FOR THIS SLOWS

DOWN SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THAT IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE

SYSTEM. EVEN SO IT HAS GREAT CONTINUITY FROM THE ECMWF AND NOW WITH

THE GFS ON BOARD WITH IT...I PUSHED POPS TO LIKELY SATURDAY AND

SUNDAY. THIS... FOR THE MOST PART... WILL BE A COLD RAIN. AS THE

SYSTEM OCCLUDES AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA... WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING BACK... IT IS LIKELY WE WILL SEE A

CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BUT I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM THE SNOW PART OF

THIS SYSTEM AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH THE

PRIMARY SYSTEM. IT WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY SERIOUS LAKE

EFFECT EITHER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. IT IS

THAT 200 KNOT JET CORE THAT DEVELOPS A SYSTEM BEHIND THE SAT-SUN

SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT SYSTEM THEN HEADS INTO THE

GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS

IDEA FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE GFS IS JUST NOW STARTING TO CONVERGE

ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS ONE TOO. THIS WOULD BRING RAIN INTO

AREA AT FIRST BUT AS IT OCCLUDES IT WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW DURING

TUESDAY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO BRING A

SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT TO THE AREA THAN ANY SO FOR THIS FALL. WE

WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE

IF THE ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH IT. IT COULD BE OUR FIRST AREA

WIDE SNOWSTORM.

[OHweather]

The GFS and ECM suites remain at odds (and, it wouldn't be fun if they agreed at this point, would it? I want to earn my snow, and don't want to sit here 7-8 days out knowing I'll get it...ok, enough of me rambling) with how they handle the energy moving into the western US. However, there have been some semblances of coming to a consensus on this weekend's system as well as the development of a strongly west based -NAO this weekend.

First off, the GFS and the first wave:

Initially, the GFS showed a strong shortwave over the upper MW Friday into Saturday that suppressed the first southwestern shortwave ejecting east over the weekend. This resulted in the model likely becoming too zonal across the central and eastern US into early next week. Now, the model is closer to the Euro in the handling of the first wave, driving it farther north and maintaining a bit more of an amplified pattern heading into next week:

An interesting change is the now relatively well agreed upon development of a west based -NAO as mentioned above this weekend. Assuming the first wave comes out in one piece, it should do its part to lower heights and bring in marginal cold for the Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, and with a potential west based -NAO on the table, this should allow any second storm to track farther south than the first storm and have a bit more cold to play with. However, the airmass will be marginal, with much of the eastern 2/3rds of N. America remaining above average in the temperature department even after the first wave moves east this weekend.

One area where the two suites still differ, likely resulting in the difference in solutions for this second, potentially more wintry storm, is in how much energy crashes into the NW US this weekend and how much of it ejects east.

The two suites of ensembles above actually are now in much better agreement now in placement and strength of ridging in the Pacific and placement of the polar vortex north of Alaska this weekend...the GFS suite is just in general a bit weaker with the energy diving into the coast on Sunday.

As we look ahead towards Monday, the ensembles continue to diverge. The GFS ensembles are a bit farther south with the first shortwave, with the -NAO exerting a bit more of an influence on the GFS ensembles than the ECM ensembles. This likely contributes to, along with a weaker initial system diving into the west, the GFS suite in general bringing out a weaker, more strung out piece of energy early next week, with in general a farther south and weaker solution than the European ensembles. However, it should be noted, the GFS suite has trended towards the Euro suite WRT the amount of energy diving into the west this weekend, even if it isn't all the way there yet.

The European suite is a bit more aggressive in building ridging back in towards western Alaska this weekend on a temporary basis than the GFS, which may be resulting in some additional amplification on the west coast within that model suite.

Either way, a ton of energy will crash in off the Pacific over the next few days, and stormier weather should result. Given festering convection between the dateline and India, I'd favor the Pacific jet breaking behind the current jet streak over the western Pacific, which will favor building heights over the N. Central Pacific until convection becomes re-focused over the Indian Ocean next week.

So, in short:

-First shortwave this weekend, while it may feature some snows for the far northwestern portions of our sub-forum, will be more of a sacrificial wave that will help weaken eastern US ridging some and force any systems following behind it to track farther south.

-West based -NAO will help maintain lower than normal heights over the Great Lakes behind this first system and will help hold in marginal cold air.

-The amount of energy diving into the western US this weekend is paramount. Less energy means a more strung out solution with less snow chances, while more energy diving into the west and ejecting out in one piece means a more amplified solution with more widespread snow chances is more likely.

As always, small scale features that the models will not resolve properly this far in advance such as potential wave interference and truly how strong the Pacific energy is, regardless of the overall pattern, may throw wrenches into this threat, but the pattern supports the first widespread "snowstorm" threat for this sub-forum next Tuesday-Wednesday.

[michsnowfreak]

The model follies of the next few days should be interesting. Now GFS ditched its suppressed 18z solution for an east coast storm with unorganized precip in IN/OH. Storms and rumors of storms...I do like Justins thoughts. The energy is there...the air is getting colder (no, not epic cold, but cold enough for snow).....I will be SHOCKED if someone in this forum doesnt get a snowstorm before New Years.

[Hoosier]

00z GFS has a nice storm...for New England.

[Justin]

Great post by OHWx putting it more into layman's terms than I probably could. When I talk weather with a lot of friends and folks I know they just stare at me like "what are you talking about?"

I do have some worries the building cold and the jet streak relaxing could bring energy out in pieces which is why I said I'm not ready to guarantee a big snow storm just yet. Everything on the board that shows up though is hard to ignore and screams a good snow for someone sooner than later though.

Just don't jump off the edge guys and gals, we will get our chances somewhere, this Winter WILL be more of a Winter than last....

[Harry]

Is it me or is this screaming cutoff low?

Was thinking that OR..

00z GFS has a nice storm...for New England.

I am amazed the track was that far to the se/east with the lack in blocking..

Just before it all gets going..

Does this scream a eastcoast bomb?

Now if it were to cut off? Different story perhaps..