Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The 0z Euro FWIW had 9-12" from DVN north side of MKX. Warm layer around 925mb screwed us over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 nothing compared to the gfs crusher extraordinaire.... Or more like something for us, unlike the GFS...which is nothing. Eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 i know it's way out there but the 12z GFS ensembles for this run are all over the map and mostly crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I can tell that you're already getting nervous about this riding west. It depends on what hour you ask me....as to how I think this will crash and burn. For instance right now I'm more inclined to think suppression. Last hour it was the nw trend. Euro will probablly swing me back to nw trend worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 i know it's way out there but the 12z GFS ensembles for this run are all over the map and mostly crappy That will make wiswx happy since agreement is a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 That will make wiswx happy since agreement is a bad thing. I just saw that post...a real head scratcher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The Brazilian shows the storm missing the MW/OV by a close shave. lol well don't know about the brazilian or korean, but their special needs brother, the nogaps, is showing a weak storm over WV at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I just saw that post...a real head scratcher Basically what I meant is I'm starting not to trust them anymore than the GFS OP runs. I used to think looking at the GFS Ensembles, even 84-144 hours out was a decent sign if they had agreement amongst most of their members, but unless it is every single one, I'm not convinced they are that accurate. It was somewhat facetious as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Basically what I meant is I'm starting not to trust them anymore than the GFS OP runs. I used to think looking at the GFS Ensembles, even 84-144 hours out was a decent sign if they had agreement amongst most of their members, but unless it is every single one, I'm not convinced they are that accurate. It was somewhat facetious as well. So it's like being a little bit pregnant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Basically what I meant is I'm starting not to trust them anymore than the GFS OP runs. I used to think looking at the GFS Ensembles, even 84-144 hours out was a decent sign if they had agreement amongst most of their members, but unless it is every single one, I'm not convinced they are that accurate. It was somewhat facetious as well. If I'm not mistaken, ensembles are only as good as their initialization of current parameters. I think BI used to mention garbage in/garbage out when it came to the initialization of guidance in general. So as long as there aren't too many initialization errors the ensembles should have a much better grasp if you take an average of the more dominant members. Ensembles certainly aren't perfect, but they usually do pretty good at showing which side the op run should be leaning towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Let me preface by saying I am only an observe and harldy understand most of this weather lingo. But wasn't the Euro going a little to far north in previous years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The Brazilian shows the storm missing the MW/OV by a close shave. Ahh I needed the good laugh, nice one. As for the storm the GFS is having issues with the first storm, it is weak yet completely stops and sits NE of here. It is trying to force a block that won't be there, I expect corrections from the GFS. As for the GGEM with both vorts diving as far South as they do I would be highly skeptical of any solution the GGEM has, it has a known bias for having issues with systems that dive far South into the SW part of USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Let me preface by saying I am only an observe and harldy understand most of this weather lingo. But wasn't the Euro going a little to far north in previous years? I like to think that every winter has its own model "biases" in the medium/long range. Really, the general pattern probably dictates this...and the more "chaos", the better (or worse) the model disagreement. But just as there may be some truth to the Euro over amplifying storms outside 6+ days, the reverse can be said for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Basically what I meant is I'm starting not to trust them anymore than the GFS OP runs. I used to think looking at the GFS Ensembles, even 84-144 hours out was a decent sign if they had agreement amongst most of their members, but unless it is every single one, I'm not convinced they are that accurate. It was somewhat facetious as well. Bad move to double down, typically when there is agreement even in the mid/long range that the ensembles tend to be closer to correct than not. Rarely will you ever get all the ensembles to agree though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 If I'm not mistaken, ensembles are only as good as their initialization of current parameters. I think BI used to mention garbage in/garbage out when it came to the initialization of guidance in general. So as long as there aren't too many initialization errors the ensembles should have a much better grasp if you take an average of the more dominant members. Ensembles certainly aren't perfect, but they usually do pretty good at showing which side the op run should be leaning towards. This would be correct, If they get in bad data they will more than likely pump out bad solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 This would be correct, If they get in bad data they will more than likely pump out bad solutions. The numerical weather prediction article on Wikipedia sums this up pretty well. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Although post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions, a more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations used to simulate the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Just to be specific with respect to the GGEM, it completely strings out the first system's vorticity across the entire Southern part of the US, I don't see that happening at all, it really is a bad solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I would expect there to be another 12 hour to 24 hour slow down on the system for this thread...if i'm not mistaken (useing the ECMWF just for consistency sake) that it has already slowed a bit since it started showing up 3 or so days ago? Aren't there typically larger speed/timing issues with systems of this nature (as shown via ECMWF)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I would expect there to be another 12 hour to 24 hour slow down on the system for this thread...if i'm not mistaken (useing the ECMWF just for consistency sake) that it has already slowed a bit since it started showing up 3 or so days ago? Aren't there typically larger speed/timing issues with systems of this nature (as shown via ECMWF)? I would say it is possible considering the scope and magnitude of the potential system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The wave in the southeast at 156 hours on the 12z Euro is gonna try to spoil the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Might still be enough room for some event especially for the OV but the 12z Euro definitely won't look like the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Might still be enough room for some event especially for the OV but the 12z Euro definitely won't look like the previous run. Of course, I had to open my big mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z Euro looks like it will go harmlessly out to sea. That lead wave sorta came out of nowhere...something to watch in future cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Looks like it took a step towards the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z Euro looks like it will go harmlessly out to sea. That lead wave sorta came out of nowhere...something to watch in future cycles. Not to mention the massive block across Eastern Canada that blew up this run. Neither one of those things have been on previous runs. Edit: upon further examination that wave that creates the coastal in the 144-168 range seems to be a piece of the first system that is left in the SW, it is weak and disorganized until it hits the SE coast after sitting in the SW for 2 days. Seems like a very suspect solution all together with respect to that weak vort that somehow manages to smash down the SE ridge to allow for an escape route for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Not to mention the massive block across Eastern Canada that blew up this run. Neither one of those things have been on previous runs. Which is why it's just one run and I wouldn't worry about it. For the euro to be consistent for 6 straight runs and just back off now makes total scence because this is still a week out. Euro ensembles should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 I did a bang up job with starting this thread...for today's runs anyway. Tips my cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 wow...talk about a kiljoy euro run. Question: Assume for a moment that the euro and ggem are correct and this thing slides harmlessly OTS. Does that have significant repercussions on the pattern as a whole moving into Xmas? ie, major spoiler? DT alluded to this in his latest post...saying it would basically fck up cold and wintry chances for the rest of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I did a bang up job with starting this thread...for today's runs anyway. Tips my cap. lol ... it will be "back" (on the OP ECMWF) by the 13DEC 00z run IMO FWIW and thanks for the reply Steve...cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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