michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 ORH posted a thread in the NE forum for SNE snowfall in these extreme NAO winters, so I thought Id take a look for Detroit. Im assuming NAO data is only since 1950 or so as the oldest year on here is 1954-55? As with any statistical data, ANYTHING is possible, this is just a way to show where your odds are better. This shows the winters NAO, total snowfall, biggest snowstorm, total days with 1"+ snowcover, and the DJF temp. DETROIT....NAO....SNWFL...STM.....SNWCVR...DJF TEMP 1968-69…-4.89……17.1”…..3.3”….28 days….26.5F 2009-10…-4.64……43.7”…..8.6”….48 days….27.4F 1995-96…-3.78……27.6”…..5.8”….31 days….25.3F 1962-63…-3.60……29.7”…..4.7”….81 days….20.4F 1964-65…-2.88……49.3”…11.0”….76 days….27.5F 1963-64…-2.86……32.5”…..4.4”….57 days….27.7F 1954-55…-2.52……27.3”…..3.8”….36 days….28.1F 1961-62…-2.38……28.1”…..4.8”….59 days….24.9F 1978-79…-2.25……35.6”…..6.1”….60 days….21.5F 1976-77…-2.14……43.9”…..8.3”….67 days….19.7F avg snowfall: 33.5” (approx 7” BELOW longterm avg) avg snowcover days: 54.3 (approx 5 days ABOVE longterm avg) avg biggest snowstorm: 6.1” avg DJF temp: 24.9F (approx 1-2F COLDER than longterm avg) DETROIT....NAO....SNWFL...STM.....SNWCVR...DJF TEMP 1988-89…+5.08……25.1”…..4.1”….19 days….28.5F 1989-90…+3.96……41.8”…..5.9”….47 days….27.4F 1994-95…+3.96……33.5”…..7.6”….39 days….29.6F 1982-83…+3.42……20.0”…..7.3”….15 days….32.5F 1991-92…+3.28……43.5”…11.1”….41 days….30.4F 2011-12…+3.17……26.0”…..4.8”….20 days….33.0F 1993-94…+3.03……45.8”…10.3”….49 days….23.9F 1999-00…+2.80……23.7”…..4.0”….43 days….29.5F 2006-07…+2.79……30.3”…..8.5”….43 days….28.8F 1992-93…+2.67……52.2”…..7.5”….48 days….28.9F avg snowfall: 34.2” (approx 6” BELOW longterm avg) avg snowcover days: 36.4 (approx 13 days BELOW longterm avg) avg biggest snowstorm: 7.1" avg DJF temp: 29.3F (approx 2-3F WARMER than longterm avg) SUMMARY: I decided to do this because so many seem to be very hungup on the NAO, when the bottom line, for snowfall in THIS neck of the woods we do NOT want a strongly -NAO. Although, we apparently we don't want a strongly +NAO either, as you see BOTH top 10 lists had a snowfall average a good 6-7" BELOW the longterm average, and closer to 9-10" BELOW the current average. A few givens....snowcover was WAY better in the strongly -NAO winters, in fact to the tune of averaging 18 more days!!! Also, temperatures were WAY colder during the strongly -NAO winters, to the tune of over 4F!!! Despite this, total snowfall and biggest snowstorm were a bit HIGHER in the +NAO winters. But it would appear the bottom line is, if you want a lot of snow in SE MI, you want the NAO neither strongly + OR -. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 ORH posted a thread in the NE forum for SNE snowfall in these extreme NAO winters, so I thought Id take a look for Detroit. Im assuming NAO data is only since 1950 or so as the oldest year on here is 1954-55? As with any statistical data, ANYTHING is possible, this is just a way to show where your odds are better. This shows the winters NAO, total snowfall, biggest snowstorm, total days with 1"+ snowcover, and the DJF temp. DETROIT....NAO....SNWFL...STM.....SNWCVR...DJF TEMP 1968-69…-4.89……17.1”…..3.3”….28 days….26.5F 2009-10…-4.64……43.7”…..8.6”….48 days….27.4F 1995-96…-3.78……27.6”…..5.6”….31 days….25.3F 1962-63…-3.60……29.7”…..4.7”….81 days….20.4F 1964-65…-2.88……49.3”…11.0”….76 days….27.5F 1963-64…-2.86……32.5”…..4.4”….57 days….27.7F 1954-55…-2.52……27.3”…..3.8”….36 days….28.1F 1961-62…-2.38……28.1”…..4.8”….59 days….24.9F 1978-79…-2.25……35.6”…..6.1”….60 days….21.5F 1976-77…-2.14……43.9”…..8.3”….67 days….19.7F avg snowfall: 33.5” (approx 7” BELOW longterm avg) avg snowcover days: 54.3 (approx 5 days ABOVE longterm avg) avg biggest snowstorm: 6.1” avg DJF temp: 24.9F (approx 1-2F COLDER than longterm avg) DETROIT....NAO....SNWFL...STM.....SNWCVR...DJF TEMP 1988-89…+5.08……25.1”…..4.1”….19 days….28.5F 1989-90…+3.96……41.8”…..5.9”….47 days….27.4F 1994-95…+3.96……33.5”…..7.6”….39 days….29.6F 1982-83…+3.42……20.0”…..7.3”….15 days….32.5F 1991-92…+3.28……43.5”…11.1”….41 days….30.4F 2011-12…+3.17……26.0”…..4.8”….20 days….33.0F 1993-94…+3.03……45.8”…10.3”….49 days….23.9F 1999-00…+2.80……23.7”…..4.0”….43 days….29.5F 2006-07…+2.79……30.3”…..8.5”….43 days….28.8F 1992-93…+2.67……52.2”…..7.5”….48 days….28.9F avg snowfall: 34.2” (approx 6” BELOW longterm avg) avg snowcover days: 36.4 (approx 13 days BELOW longterm avg) avg biggest snowstorm: 7.1" avg DJF temp: 29.3F (approx 2-3F WARMER than longterm avg) SUMMARY: I decided to do this because so many seem to be very hungup on the NAO, when the bottom line, for snowfall in THIS neck of the woods we do NOT want a strongly -NAO. Although, we apparently we don't want a strongly +NAO either, as you see BOTH top 10 lists had a snowfall average a good 6-7" BELOW the longterm average, and closer to 9-10" BELOW the current average. A few givens....snowcover was WAY better in the strongly -NAO winters, in fact to the tune of averaging 18 more days!!! Also, temperatures were WAY colder during the strongly -NAO winters, to the tune of over 4F!!! Despite this, total snowfall and biggest snowstorm were a bit HIGHER in the +NAO winters. But it would appear the bottom line is, if you want a lot of snow in SE MI, you want the NAO neither strongly + OR -. The pacific plays more into our snowfall potential than the NAO. First and foremost, we need to get rid of that PITA trough in Alaska. Ideally, we would want some ridging along the west coast (weak to moderate +PNA and -EPO) and east-based -NAO blocking. You get a west-based -NAO and prepare for surpression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Good stuff Josh. The NAO data Will used, for DJFM, goes back to the winter of 1863-64 FYI. https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/cas_data_files/asphilli/nao_station_djfm_0.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 The pacific plays more into our snowfall potential than the NAO. First and foremost, we need to get rid of that PITA trough in Alaska. Ideally, we would want some ridging along the west coast (weak to moderate +PNA and -EPO) and east-based -NAO blocking. You get a west-based -NAO and prepare for surpression city. Yeah its a delicate situation. Have to be very careful what you wish for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Good stuff Josh. The NAO data Will used, for DJFM, goes back to the winter of 1863-64 FYI. https://climatedatag...tion_djfm_0.txt Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Going to use Indianapolis, and only season snowfall totals, for both lists. It would sort of make sense that a -NAO would benefit places further south, and vice versa. Results pretty much play out as expected. Half of the +NAO winters did have above average snowfall...but some real clunkers as well. Strongest of the -NAO's are preferred for Indy. Long term season snowfall average of 23.0" for Indianapolis. 1968-69...18.7" 2009-10...33.0" 1995-96...51.7" 1962-63...29.4" 1964-65...36.5" 1963-64...34.3" 1954-55...20.0" 1961-62...27.5" 1978-79...38.4" 1976-77...30.0" Average...32.0" +9.0" 1988-89...13.5" 1989-90...26.0" 1994-95...19.8" 1982-83...7.1" 1991-92...14.7" 2011-12...9.8" 1993-94...31.5" 1999-00...24.1" 2006-07...25.8" 1992-93...28.5" Average...20.1" -2.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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