Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[snowlover2]

So where does this sucker end up after being at the MI/OH/IN border?

Pretty much due east to NY state.

[Minnesota Meso]

GEM shows a weaker southern vort and a stronger northern vort, and hence a further north/weaker overall solution. So far this season we've seen the guidance overdo the strength of the southern stream vort in this range. Hopefully that's not the case this time, but the Euro shows the potential outcome of a more dominant southern stream vort.

My winter forecast that called for more snow in ARX to Madison to Chicago than in MSP was based on the very cold SST's off the western Canadian cost, coupled with the very warm SST's near the NE US coast. Chances were that some very cold air would build across Western Canada, while at the same time if the pattern would hold over the NE for warm SST's off the coast we could see a very nice block set up east of Greenland to the Hudson Bay area. I wasn't to concerned about true Arctic air building into the area, as heavy snowfalls tend to set up around the baroclinic zone. If to much cold air would build in, the storms would be suppressed. If my idea was correct with the colder air (not arctic setting up over the northern plains to MN) where my temp forecast was only -1 to -2 degrees from average that would set the baroclinic zone to the se of us. Thus with any kind of a south eastern US ridge setting up the southern stream vort should cut up into the lakes.

[Minnesota Meso]

My winter forecast that called for more snow in ARX to Madison to Chicago than in MSP was based on the very cold SST's off the western Canadian cost, coupled with the very warm SST's near the NE US coast. Chances were that some very cold air would build across Western Canada, while at the same time if the pattern would hold over the NE for warm SST's off the coast we could see a very nice block set up west of Greenland to the Hudson Bay area. I wasn't to concerned about true Arctic air building into the area, as heavy snowfalls tend to set up around the baroclinic zone. If to much cold air would build in, the storms would be suppressed. If my idea was correct with the colder air (not arctic setting up over the northern plains to MN) where my temp forecast was only -1 to -2 degrees from average that would set the baroclinic zone to the se of us. Thus with any kind of a south eastern US ridge setting up the southern stream vort should cut up into the lakes.

Edit: the storm track that tonight's run of the Euro show's is what I expect the mean track of the winter storms will be.

[Minnesota Meso]

I think Goes is on here, if he is I think he has seen my ideas before.

[Thundersnow12]

If only I could show the snow map from the Euro. Wide axis of 12" and 18" from the IL/WI border/MKE and over the central part of the lake.

I-88 and north is the 9" line.

[IWXwx]

A very nice discussion from Sam at IWX this morning concerning the upcoming week. A simple discussion that a layman like me can understand, but he lays it all out.

It's nice to see a forecaster this confident, thanks to model consistency at this time frame, after what we've experienced lately.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=IWX&issuedby=IWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[dmc76]

So close....

[trapperman]

This board is about to go nuts. What a storm on the Euro. I hope it really comes true for you guys south and east. What a Chritmas present for Bowme. If the 12z holds serve I think someone is going to get crushed. Bowme crying like a baby at the 20" in his driveway would be the ultimate.

[Stebo]

This board is about to go nuts. What a storm on the Euro. I hope it really comes true for you guys south and east. What a Chritmas present for Bowme. If the 12z holds serve I think someone is going to get crushed. Bowme crying like a baby at the 20" in his driveway would be the ultimate.

Lets dial back the expectations a bit here. The models are in agreement that there will be a storm, but what parts of the region to be hit are still in question and most certainly to what magnitude is in question. We still have 5+ days until this potential is realized, a large number of details will waver between now and then.

[snowstormcanuck]

.wrt the storm threads, I say just use common sense. There's no need for rigid boundaries. I mean anything beyond D7 (fantasy land) should always be prohibited, but if there's solid model consensus for a couple of runs, starting one for something in the D6-7 COULD be ok. The one caveat I would put on that is when there are already 2 or more storm threads open for preceding events (like now). Just in the interest of avoiding clutter.

[Stebo]

I will admit that the consensus is getting pretty strong with this one compared to previous systems, plus we will be within the 120hr mark by tonight which is good.

A couple of ECMWF ensemble images give you an idea how the evolution plays out. Note the strength of the low pressure, which is fairly strong for this far out.

[trapperman]

Lets dial back the expectations a bit here. The models are in agreement that there will be a storm, but what parts of the region to be hit are still in question and most certainly to what magnitude is in question. We still have 5+ days until this potential is realized, a large number of details will waver between now and then.

This is the medium range thread, and there was no expectation, just speculation and hope in my post, that the guys who have suffered through the warmth and rain, etc and all of us who suffered thru last year's futility will finally have something to talk about. We got ours this year already, hoping you guys get yours. That's all. And the fact that yes, this subforum is about to go nuts. A day 4-5 prog on the Euro is starting to mean something, in my mind. I haven't been posting for awhile on purpose and there was no reason to jump all over that post. Speculation and hope, that is all.

[wisconsinwx]

I really wish I had saved the model watching for tonight, sleeping last night was futile to begin with, and even more futile once I got up and looked at the Euro. Need to whittle the hours down in half for me to feel any confidence whatsoever with a solution like the Euro.

[Stebo]

This is the medium range thread, and there was no expectation, just speculation and hope in my post, that the guys who have suffered through the warmth and rain, etc and all of us who suffered thru last year's futility will finally have something to talk about. We got ours this year already, hoping you guys get yours. That's all. And the fact that yes, this subforum is about to go nuts. A day 4-5 prog on the Euro is starting to mean something, in my mind. I haven't been posting for awhile on purpose and there was no reason to jump all over that post. Speculation and hope, that is all.

Yeah, please don't take my retort as being a slam on your post. I took it as expectations when you were just merely speculating what might happen.

[trapperman]

12z will be 120 hours or so, well within the "believeable" time range. No reason someone shouldn't start a thread after the King comes out, right?

[hawkeye_wx]

The GFS is just so progressive with the pattern that the late-week storm cannot slow and dig. The 12z run is even faster than before and really speeds a weaker system through the upper midwest. It'll be interesting to see if the Euro sticks with the considerably slower, more amped solution.

Check out how the two models are handling the pattern in the gulf of Alaska and off the west coast behind the late-week storm. They are not on the same page at all.

[cyclone77]

Euro showed some pretty impressive winds with this thing too. Sustained 30-40kts over Iowa on this map where heavy snow is falling. Would guess gusts would be over 45kts.

[michsnowfreak]

I don't think anyone is confused man. I agree looking at long range too closely is foolish... But we only have ten days left... We pretty much need late next week's system to deliver. Nothing coming before that, and after there won't be much time to get anything going again.

I give up. Everyone else can b*tch all day long about anything, I make one statement complaining about an unrealistic graphic shown by local "weather people" and it is being dissected by all. No one sees my point, and if they do, then they do not know our climatology or how weather works in the Great Lakes region. Im done with this discussion of white Christmas. You all were correct. Mild weather 13 days before Christmas is a very valid reason to give Detroit, MI the odds of a White Christmas as equivalent to that of Tulsa, OK rather than Detroit, MI. Bare Christmas incoming for all of SE MI. In fact, bare everything coming for all of SE MI as well as the entire Great lakes region. I mean, we have no snow on the ground on December 15th. That means we have MAYBE a 20% chance of snow on the ground January 15th. Maybe 30% by February 15th? But wait thats when sun angle starts to come into play. hmmm. Well, snow MAY make an appearance at some point in our future, but certainly not in 2012-13. There....now I fit in with everyone else.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Yeah. The GFS says here is 2 days of chilly weather. Then love your -NAO torch with the -350DM trough in the E. Pacific.

So heights build. Big time return flow around that HP in the SE and warmth floods us.

While a large very cold PV is in Asia with a huge area of -20C to -30C 850s. Reaching Sub -40 down to 60N it seems.

Awesome

[Chicago WX]

12z GGEM brings a lead up to northern Indiana at 126 hours. And then redevelops a low further SE (eastern Indiana) at 132 hours that moves NNE thereafter...all the while turning into quite the bomb. Yeah, that seems totally realistic.

[Thundersnow12]

12z GGEM brings a lead up to northern Indiana at 126 hours. And then redevelops a low further SE (eastern Indiana) at 132 hours that moves NNE thereafter...all the while turning into quite the bomb. Yeah, that seems totally realistic.

979mb over Detroit lol

[cyclone77]

Iowa to Wisconsin get a decent thumping from the first wave on the GEM. Then Champaign-LAF-most of Michigan get smoked with the main storm. Good to see most of the models at least still showing a storm in this time frame. Euro should be interesting.

[Thundersnow12]

It's been pretty cool to watch each GFS run now continue to get stronger...now 979mb in northern MI on the 12z run.

[Jonger]

The 12Z GFS operational seems really far NW, is this solution unique to the GFS?

[andyhb]

The CMC's verbatim looks rather similar to 11/15/05 around 126-132 hrs.

[Hoosier]

at thundersnow's request

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38351-december-20-22-winter-storm-blizzard-potential/

[Thundersnow12]

at thundersnow's request

http://www.americanw...zard-potential/

[SpartyOn]

I give up. Everyone else can b*tch all day long about anything, I make one statement complaining about an unrealistic graphic shown by local "weather people" and it is being dissected by all. No one sees my point, and if they do, then they do not know our climatology or how weather works in the Great Lakes region. Im done with this discussion of white Christmas. You all were correct. Mild weather 13 days before Christmas is a very valid reason to give Detroit, MI the odds of a White Christmas as equivalent to that of Tulsa, OK rather than Detroit, MI. Bare Christmas incoming for all of SE MI. In fact, bare everything coming for all of SE MI as well as the entire Great lakes region. I mean, we have no snow on the ground on December 15th. That means we have MAYBE a 20% chance of snow on the ground January 15th. Maybe 30% by February 15th? But wait thats when sun angle starts to come into play. hmmm. Well, snow MAY make an appearance at some point in our future, but certainly not in 2012-13. There....now I fit in with everyone else.

Chill dude. HM8 is correct though. Its not looking that good. Unless the bomb blesses us (which it might scoot to far NW) we are kinda outa options for a WC. Is what it is. Pattern realy sucks ATM.

[Chicago Storm]

at thundersnow's request

http://www.americanw...zard-potential/

Just beat me to it.

[Central Illinois]

Iowa to Wisconsin get a decent thumping from the first wave on the GEM. Then Champaign-LAF-most of Michigan get smoked with the main storm. Good to see most of the models at least still showing a storm in this time frame. Euro should be interesting.

Lock it in!