Stebo Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Could just make it an official Lakes/OV rule that no threads be started until day5. Hoosier could then delete threads started for day6+. Anything beyond day5 should just be incorporated into the medium/long range disco anyway. I would be for this unless it is an obvious storm situation for example the GHD blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Or just ban the people for awhile who start the threads at 8 days out with an image of one op run and that's it. So annoying. Atleast state some meteorological reasoning to it. No need to ban people unless it is repeatedly occurring, but ya a one map no reasoning thread should be avoided at all costs as it does no one any benefit by making it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 With respect to Channel 7's prediction, they're right. Climatologically speaking, you're correct. But for this Christmas, based on pattern recognition, it's safe to say our chances of a White Christmas are below normal (note, a below normal chance of a White Christmas doesn't mean they're won't be a White Christmas). Whats funny though, is in terms of pattern recognition, all extended models/indices point towards an average to COLDER than normal Christmas. Naturally nothing is set in stone, but the current state of the weather on December 12th (when I saw this graphic) has NOTHING to do with the weather that will be observed at 7am December 25th. If you want to go below climo because of the slow start to the season, fine, but with how often the weather changes at this time of year, giving a White Christmas prediction before December 20th for this region showing anything UNDER 40% or OVER 60%, regardless of WHAT the current weather, is silly in my opinion. Lets look at some recent years. In 2002, on CHRISTMAS EVEs midday news, we were told there will be NO White Christmas this year. We ended up with a 7" snowstorm. In 2003 & 2004 as well, mid-December was not looking good at all, and we had a white Christmas. 2005 we had deep snow in mid-Dec, thinking what a great Christmas this will be, and we just barely escaped with a white (and rainy) Christmas. In 2007 we had 10" on the ground on the 16th...but no white Christmas. The only recent years I can think of where the mid-Dec pattern was a good indicator of Christmas was 2008 & 2010 (white) and 2006 & 2011 (bare). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Whats funny though, is in terms of pattern recognition, all extended models/indices point towards an average to COLDER than normal Christmas. Naturally nothing is set in stone, but the current state of the weather on December 12th (when I saw this graphic) has NOTHING to do with the weather that will be observed at 7am December 25th. If you want to go below climo because of the slow start to the season, fine, but with how often the weather changes at this time of year, giving a White Christmas prediction before December 20th for this region showing anything UNDER 40% or OVER 60%, regardless of WHAT the current weather, is silly in my opinion. Lets look at some recent years. In 2002, on CHRISTMAS EVEs midday news, we were told there will be NO White Christmas this year. We ended up with a 7" snowstorm. In 2003 & 2004 as well, mid-December was not looking good at all, and we had a white Christmas. 2005 we had deep snow in mid-Dec, thinking what a great Christmas this will be, and we just barely escaped with a white (and rainy) Christmas. In 2007 we had 10" on the ground on the 16th...but no white Christmas. The only recent years I can think of where the mid-Dec pattern was a good indicator of Christmas was 2008 & 2010 (white) and 2006 & 2011 (bare). To be fair, we've been discussing this pattern change to a colder pattern since before Thanksgiving. Also, this year isn't 2002, 2003, 2004 or 2007. As long as there's no blocking and that Pacific Jet continues to rage on in, I wouldn't expect a COLDER than normal pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Whats funny though, is in terms of pattern recognition, all extended models/indices point towards an average to COLDER than normal Christmas. Naturally nothing is set in stone, but the current state of the weather on December 12th (when I saw this graphic) has NOTHING to do with the weather that will be observed at 7am December 25th. If you want to go below climo because of the slow start to the season, fine, but with how often the weather changes at this time of year, giving a White Christmas prediction before December 20th for this region showing anything UNDER 40% or OVER 60%, regardless of WHAT the current weather, is silly in my opinion. Lets look at some recent years. In 2002, on CHRISTMAS EVEs midday news, we were told there will be NO White Christmas this year. We ended up with a 7" snowstorm. In 2003 & 2004 as well, mid-December was not looking good at all, and we had a white Christmas. 2005 we had deep snow in mid-Dec, thinking what a great Christmas this will be, and we just barely escaped with a white (and rainy) Christmas. In 2007 we had 10" on the ground on the 16th...but no white Christmas. The only recent years I can think of where the mid-Dec pattern was a good indicator of Christmas was 2008 & 2010 (white) and 2006 & 2011 (bare). I understand your point, local mets throwing out a number like 90% this far out is gutsy, and may well end up being stupid. It seems many are sick and tired of seeing a storm modeled 5-7 days out for a few runs, then go back to being nothing, and at some point even paid mets will have had enough of this model nonsense and suffer from this bad pattern to this point in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 120-144 hours should be about to the time limit to start individual storm threads. Unless - all major models are locking in a storm on Day 6 or 7 and the models are performing a bit better then they are now! Anyway - Skilling seems almost on board with the colder pattern for next week. Seems to like the Thursday storm idea as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 With this very small 1500 mile wide sub forum or however wide it is, if anyone starts a thread before 5 days out it should be for small area, such as the SE part, North Central, or where ever it may be. For instance it looks fairly good for far eastern MN and WI, but not as certain for the rest of the sub forum. I wouldn't mind seeing a storm thread for MN/WI only this far out. In the subtitle you could say for MN/WI only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 imo it's pretty silly to give 90 or 99 percent odds of a brown Christmas when we're still 10 days out. It's not Tallahassee. Might be fair to say the odds are below climo but we're going into a colder regime by all indications, which is one key requirement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Few comments on recent discussion in this thread... ~Channel 7 in Detroit 2 days ago had a graphic that said the statistical chance of a White Christmas in Detroit is 50%, but in 2012 we have a 10% chance of a White Christmas. That is absolute garbage to say such a thing with Christmas nearly 2 weeks out. And it would be just as much garbage if there was snow on the ground now and it said we had a 90% chance of a White Christmas. ~I vote for the 5-day-and-under storm thread rule as well....ALL winter, not just until someone gets hit good. ~Thursday is looking interesting. Very interesting for the midwest. Regardless of where the L tracks it appears a lot of folks could see some snow and wind out of this as it looks like probably the best cold front to slice through the region since February 10th. 10-20% is spot on. If we get a WC then more power to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I would be for this unless it is an obvious storm situation for example the GHD blizzard. Agree, but in that case maybe have the thread starter get the go ahead beforehand from the moderator (Hoosier). Or have Hoosier himself start the thread. We all know he's the one who started the GHD thread lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 0z GFS continues to be more consistent and going to the Euro with the system for the 20th. Takes a 995mb low of Chicago then 991mb near GRR, more QPF in the cold sector and much more impressive system overall. I think this is thread worthy if the 12z guidance tomorrow continues to suggest the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 0z GFS continues to be more consistent and going to the Euro with the system for the 20th. Takes a 995mb low of Chicago then 991mb near GRR, more QPF in the cold sector and much more impressive system overall. I think this is thread worthy if the 12z guidance tomorrow continues to suggest the potential. Needless to say if this continues for a day's worth of runs we should have a thread. There'd be too many posts in this medium/long range thread at that point. 5-6 days is a good general guideline for a decent storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Yeah actually this run is near or even a bit stronger than the 12z Euro run. Blizzard for parts of WI/MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 10-20% is spot on. If we get a WC then more power to us. Just to be clear. A White Christmas, as they officially consider it, is 1" or more of snow on the ground Christmas morning at 7am. Has nothing to do with snow falling or anything, maybe thats what some are confused by. Not trying to beat a dead horse, but when climo is 50% chance, and your most reliable (and I use that term LOOSELY lol) longrange models show a COLD pattern for Christmas, there is NO reasoning to say, well theres no snow on the ground 2 weeks before Christmas, so we only have a 10% chance. Now, if there is no snow on the ground by December 23rd, cold pattern or not, THEN you can say 10%. Not December 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I understand your point, local mets throwing out a number like 90% this far out is gutsy, and may well end up being stupid. It seems many are sick and tired of seeing a storm modeled 5-7 days out for a few runs, then go back to being nothing, and at some point even paid mets will have had enough of this model nonsense and suffer from this bad pattern to this point in the winter. I usually don't even watch the news weather reports, because I cant believe how dumbed down they are half the time . just caught my eye and I was like And again, if we had like 6 inches of snow on the ground they probably would have said we have a 90% chance of a white Christmas....and that would be equally ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 0z Euro could end up further south with the system on the 20th...trof and wave further south moving into the four corners region at 102hr with lower pressures on the lee side of the rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 0z Euro could end up further south with the system on the 20th...trof and wave further south moving into the four corners region at 102hr with lower pressures on the lee side of the rockies. Trough slightly positive at 120...sub 1000 SLP edit....damn near sub 990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 0z Euro going to be big time for somebody, stronger and further south. Widespread snow from eastern CO up to DSM by 126hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 132hr...there she goes, going neg tilt...996mb sfc low over centro MO, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 you guys are going to love the Euro run, heavy snows for KS, NE, IA southern WI and a great deal of the OV, while we in MSP stay cold and mostly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Moves looks like just N of STL then 988mb to south of IKK. Chicago N and W burbs look like they are mostly snow. Cycloneville getting dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Moves looks like just N of STL then 988mb to south of IKK. Chicago N and W burbs look like they are mostly snow. Cycloneville getting dumped on. 1040 HP in the rockies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 a 990mb low centered over Central IL, north Central IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I've seen this tease before on the Euro. If she's still pole vault running us on Sunday night we just might have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 988mb over the IN/MI/OH border, .75"+ QPF bullseye just north of MKE at 150hr. Looks very windy in the heavy snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Just to be clear. A White Christmas, as they officially consider it, is 1" or more of snow on the ground Christmas morning at 7am. Has nothing to do with snow falling or anything, maybe thats what some are confused by. Not trying to beat a dead horse, but when climo is 50% chance, and your most reliable (and I use that term LOOSELY lol) longrange models show a COLD pattern for Christmas, there is NO reasoning to say, well theres no snow on the ground 2 weeks before Christmas, so we only have a 10% chance. Now, if there is no snow on the ground by December 23rd, cold pattern or not, THEN you can say 10%. Not December 12th. I don't think anyone is confused man. I agree looking at long range too closely is foolish... But we only have ten days left... We pretty much need late next week's system to deliver. Nothing coming before that, and after there won't be much time to get anything going again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 988mb over the IN/MI/OH border, .75"+ QPF bullseye just north of MKE at 150hr. Looks very windy in the heavy snow band. There's 60+ kts at 850 mb. Now to get this to survive on the modeling for several days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 There's 60+ kts at 850 mb. Now to get this to survive on the modeling for several days lol 12z Euro had 50-55kts at 925mb. My vote is you start the thread after the 12z runs tomorrow if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 So where does this sucker end up after being at the MI/OH/IN border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 GEM shows a weaker southern vort and a stronger northern vort, and hence a further north/weaker overall solution. So far this season we've seen the guidance overdo the strength of the southern stream vort in this range. Hopefully that's not the case this time, but the Euro shows the potential outcome of a more dominant southern stream vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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