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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


IWXwx

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Despite the Euro/GEM and other models showing some more action, NIU continues to remain "grinchy" lol...

After that, the next system to affect us may bring us

scattered areas of very light rain around Thursday...maybe mixed with

snow flurries. But, that looks trivial, and if anything happened to stick,

which looks seriously doubtful at this point, temperatures significantly

above freezing will melt it almost immediately. Thus, there is now a

99% chance of a "green" Christmas this year. The models are showing a

major rain or snow around the 28th, but that's just from two model runs,

and 13 days out...the "believe it when I see it" warning is in effect.

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Despite the Euro/GEM and other models showing some more action, NIU continues to remain "grinchy" lol...

After that, the next system to affect us may bring us

scattered areas of very light rain around Thursday...maybe mixed with

snow flurries. But, that looks trivial, and if anything happened to stick,

which looks seriously doubtful at this point, temperatures significantly

above freezing will melt it almost immediately. Thus, there is now a

99% chance of a "green" Christmas this year. The models are showing a

major rain or snow around the 28th, but that's just from two model runs,

and 13 days out...the "believe it when I see it" warning is in effect.

That's the grinchiest outlook I've seen yet! And way too early to call it already.

Inaccuweather is probably sugar coating their white Chrismas potential. Saying 50% chance for this far north.

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It is so tempting to want to be onboard with a storm like the Euro, GEM, and many of the GFS Ensembles are implicating. It looks to be five to six days out, which isn't fantasy land, but it isn't the highest confidence outlook to say the least. The Euro Ensemble track looked good for the Western Great Lakes up to about Green Bay, with a low 1000s mb low going from WC Illinois to EC Lower Michigan.

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18z GFS jumped a bit towards the Euro with a stronger D6-7 storm through the upper midwest and great lakes.

No thread yet but i think if the 12z models tomorrow show something it might be worthy. 12z Euro is a blizzard for IA/WI.

This, anyone who creates a thread before tomorrow night should be thoroughly shunned.

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This, anyone who creates a thread before tomorrow night should be thoroughly shunned.

Could just make it an official Lakes/OV rule that no threads be started until day5. Hoosier could then delete threads started for day6+. Anything beyond day5 should just be incorporated into the medium/long range disco anyway.

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I like this idea...models have been soooooo jumpy..it gets exhausting to read all those posts when storm still in fantasyland and disappearing every other run..

Could just make it an official Lakes/OV rule that no threads be started until day5. Hoosier could then delete threads started for day6+. Anything beyond day5 should just be incorporated into the medium/long range disco anyway.

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Few comments on recent discussion in this thread...

~Channel 7 in Detroit 2 days ago had a graphic that said the statistical chance of a White Christmas in Detroit is 50%, but in 2012 we have a 10% chance of a White Christmas. That is absolute garbage to say such a thing with Christmas nearly 2 weeks out. And it would be just as much garbage if there was snow on the ground now and it said we had a 90% chance of a White Christmas.

~I vote for the 5-day-and-under storm thread rule as well....ALL winter, not just until someone gets hit good.

~Thursday is looking interesting. Very interesting for the midwest. Regardless of where the L tracks it appears a lot of folks could see some snow and wind out of this as it looks like probably the best cold front to slice through the region since February 10th.

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Few comments on recent discussion in this thread...

~Channel 7 in Detroit 2 days ago had a graphic that said the statistical chance of a White Christmas in Detroit is 50%, but in 2012 we have a 10% chance of a White Christmas. That is absolute garbage to say such a thing with Christmas nearly 2 weeks out. And it would be just as much garbage if there was snow on the ground now and it said we had a 90% chance of a White Christmas.

~I vote for the 5-day-and-under storm thread rule as well....ALL winter, not just until someone gets hit good.

~Thursday is looking interesting. Very interesting for the midwest. Regardless of where the L tracks it appears a lot of folks could see some snow and wind out of this as it looks like probably the best cold front to slice through the region since February 10th.

With respect to Channel 7's prediction, they're right.

Climatologically speaking, you're correct. But for this Christmas, based on pattern recognition, it's safe to say our chances of a White Christmas are below normal (note, a below normal chance of a White Christmas doesn't mean they're won't be a White Christmas).

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With respect to Channel 7's prediction, they're right.

Climatologically speaking, you're correct. But for this Christmas, based on pattern recognition, it's safe to say our chances of a White Christmas are below normal (note, a below normal chance of a White Christmas doesn't mean they're won't be a White Christmas).

yea, 10-20% sounds pretty reasonable to me

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