michsnowfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yes the mood flakes from the lakes are nice but never amount to much in the down town Detroit region. Those on the west side of the city outskirts like Howell and Brighton seem to make out very well from LES. Cold in the forecast ??? That is good news for all. Anytime there is pure lake effect ongoing, the immediate DTW area of SE MI should expect a dusting (0.1-0.5"). Once in a while you will only get a trace, once in a while 1"+, but generally speaking a dusting is a safe bet. But Im talking the lakes often help us with lake enhanced shortwaves and clippers, and not to mention our proximity puts us in a good position to get at least clipped from systems from all different directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 There is a thread for the snowmobile talk, this isn't that thread. No need to be rude. He didnt Murder anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Strong signs for a cold shot next weekend…chances for synoptic snow are more questionable though. The first in a series of systems that will crash into the western coast of N. America and then move east is currently located over California. Currently, the pattern is not conducive for significant cold or snow over much of our sub-forum, save for perhaps northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan. However, we appear to be on the verge of a step down process with the jet stream that should finally bring cooler than normal temperatures and potentially some snow. As the next piece of energy begins to dive into the Northwest tomorrow this energy over the southwest will be forced to kick east. Given the troughing being focused over the western US with no west based –NAO yet, meaning ridging over the eastern US, this first shortwave should, as modeled, move northeast towards the Great Lakes with only a small area of potential snow on the far NW fringe of our subforum. However, this shortwave will allow height rises over the eastern US to extend north into Canada and connect with ridging near Greenland, creating a nice homemade –NAO by the beginning of next week. This –NAO should, when combined with the first shortwave lowering heights over the east, force the next shortwave next Monday-Tuesday to track farther south. However, there is now good model consensus in this wave coming in too close to the lead shortwave late this weekend, meaning the trough may be too broad for one shortwave to really go to town. So, even though the pattern heading into the first half of next week will support a potential lower lakes/OV storm, unless we see one shortwave (ideally the second one Monday-Tuesday) dominate, the potential will likely go by with nothing happening. The MJO has moved into phase one with two main areas of convection…one from the east coast of Africa into the Indian Ocean, and another one over the central Pacific Ocean east of the dateline. The convection west of the dateline is going to reinforce the –PNA with heights rising into the Aleutians as the jet breaks over the central Pacific east of where the latent heat given off by the convection enhances the jet…which will favor storms tracking up west of Alaska, pumping higher heights into that region. If convection persists east of the dateline, it may favor a similar process raising heights near the west coast of the US as well. Anyways, this will favor ridging building into the Aleutians/Alaska next week and allowing cold air to begin again dumping into Canada, and keeping the nasty PV north of the Alaska area, which should keep the EPO from going too positive over the next 10 days. The GFS and ECM ensembles are both in pretty good agreement in nosing higher heights into Alaska…which fits with the pattern of the Pacific jet breaking over the western part of the basin, allowing/forcing higher heights in the central part of the basin towards Alaska. This, when combined with out –NAO which may stick around for a good week and a half or so forces a NW flow with mainly weak systems diving into our subforum, with no real chance to amplify until they are well east. This isn’t necessarily bad for lake effect belts, but on a whole is not good for significant snow chances. The one potential exception to this will be the second half of next week when a third relatively potent shortwave comes out of the west as the pattern begins aligning. It is uncertain as to whether or not it will be able to amplify enough at this point as the –NAO begins to help force a broad trough over the east and as western US ridging remains meager. This may be a modest threat to portions of the Great Lakes, however. When looking past next weekend, the MJO may briefly move into unfavorable phases with convection potentially trying to head through the Indian Ocean for the end of December towards early January. This, along with the –NAO slowly weakening as we don’t really see any systems to help pump heights up in that region after the end of next week, may cause a relaxation of the pattern after Christmas and into January before a potential re-load by mid-January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looking long range right now, subject to change of course, but it looks cold, dry, and suppressed. Basically going from one subpar pattern to another subpar pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looking long range right now, subject to change of course, but it looks cold, dry, and suppressed. Basically going from one subpar pattern to another subpar pattern. Yep, and I saw it coming as early as this last weekend. Hard to have any confidence in a Midwest storm amplifying, so by the time a storm amplifies, it's off the coast and we are in a west based -NAO pattern. Our only hope in the non lakebelt areas are clippers, and those have been unreliable lately, not to mention who knows if it will even be cold enough in general in the upcoming weeks to support a decent clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The - NAO is dead after the 20th. Models always struggle with resolving this. Probably a hint unless that EPO ridge forms, it won't be that cold. You have evidence to back this claim up, because if anything it looks to strengthen around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yeah looks like a 1038 MB high parks itself just north of the UP. Forces the storm south which is fine with me. It'll be gone in 6 hours anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Really? Looks weakening. Ensembles look very neutral after the West Based block flushes around the 20th post-Maine/southern Canadian storm. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zNAOcomparison.html 12z NAO charts would disagree, maybe closer to Christmas but not around the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looking long range right now, subject to change of course, but it looks cold, dry, and suppressed. Basically going from one subpar pattern to another subpar pattern. I still do not trust the models...but it is appearing more and more likely that an arctic blast is set to unleash later in the week. Lake snows would be a near-guarentee for the belts and probably at minimum dust us...but Im REALLY hoping something develops along the arctic front as the Euro is indicating for Thursday-Friday. Bitterly cold with bare ground, or even not fully covered ground, is not fun...and yes, it has happened before. But any snow with cold is better than what weve had so far, a chilly, dry November and a mild, somewhat wet first half of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 LOL Did you walk in on your wife in bed with a snowmobile?... Seriously, it wasn't even 1/20th of my posts in this thread. You were a nazi over the s-word last year too, the only person doing so. You should see how off-topic NE threads get with banter, at least my off-topic is weather related. I'll try to bring this back on topic with this beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I would highly recommend that you guys go looking for the UKMET and the GEM. They both stall this weekends storm over the Green Bay area because of the Hudson Bay block. When the second piece of energy comes out, they both form a double barreled low at the surface which they subsequently merge in the OV area. Be aware you may want to have a clean pair of underwear handy when you see it. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The Euro and the GFS miss the connection on the first one, the Euro just barely, how ever I do believe its to fast moving this weekend system to the ne, I really do like what the Gem is portraying with that one, but both the GEM and The Euro have the monster at hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Nice surprise looking at the 0z Euro with that next system as well as the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Did you walk in on your wife in bed with a snowmobile?... Seriously, it wasn't even 1/20th of my posts in this thread. You were a nazi over the s-word last year too, the only person doing so. calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Nice surprise looking at the 0z Euro with that next system as well as the GEM. Not much of surprise to me really, both the GFS and the Euro have been showing this system at the surface on the lee side of the Rockies for a couple of runs now, but they were just lagging it behind the LLJ coming coming out of the GOM, that looked very strange to me that a good surface low was trying to form, but at the same time staying dry. Obviously the GEM and Euro have now made the connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Nice discussion OH weather. I've said all along that this may be a clipper winter for us, and your analysis shows that a suppressed, clipper-laden pattern may come to fruition, regardless of what the overnight OP runs depict. It may be transient, but it's not a stretch to see that pattern return by the first of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Joking aside( mostly the conplaint thread) its a good guess that this pattern is only transient and will move on out sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 By looking at the nao this morning, it seems to me there might be clues of torch like weather rather than cold. That could change with the next run but this exceptional warmth is locked in for some time yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 By looking at the nao this morning, it seems to me there might be clues of torch like weather rather than cold. That could change with the next run but this exceptional warmth is locked in for some time yet. Hold yer horses. Careful with using the NAO as a basis for warm or cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looking long range right now, subject to change of course, but it looks cold, dry, and suppressed. Basically going from one subpar pattern to another subpar pattern. You said it right. We just can't seem to win in this area. Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 From LSE SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE 14.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS APPEARING TO BE A FAST OUTLIER WITH THE LOW BEING INTO CENTRAL IOWA WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE THE LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...THE TIMING IS NOT TOO FAR OFF WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS DOES LOOK A TAD COOLER WITH ITS THERMAL PROFILE AND WOULD MEAN MORE OF A SNOW EVENT WHERE THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST MORE RAIN WITH A WARMER NEAR SURFACE LAYER. WILL HAVE TO IRON OUT THOSE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER...BUT BASED ON THESE THERMAL PROFILES LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE SNOW...HAVE JUST LEFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL SNOW OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND -10C BY FRIDAY. From DVN THE EXTENDED PATTERN BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINS ACTIVE...WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON ANY FEATURES. OUR FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. THE POOR CONFIDENCE AND MODEL BLEND OFFERS A DRY FORECAST...BUT THE OVER ALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES SUGGEST OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY A SIGNIFICANT STORM LATE WEEK. THE GEM...UKMET...AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGGREMENT THAT A DEEP TROF WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THIS FEATURE. THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH THAT IT COULD DRAW IN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS. SHOULD THE GEM/UKMET AND ECMWF BE CORRECT...ANOTHER RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW EVENT COULD OCCUR TOWARDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The 12Z GFS is a never ending rollercoaster of fun... Looks like weather cocaine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looks like some decent chances for LES in the future if you can believe the GFS beyond the next day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looks like some decent chances for LES in the future if you can believe the GFS beyond the next day or so. Couple of storms roll through the state too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Well as many are mentioning, at least it doesn't look like suppression is as much a concern in the next 144 hours as it once looked. I get the feeling first measurable snow here will not come until Monday night at least, but perhaps not at all. Systems still look somewhat marginal for decent cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Well as many are mentioning, at least it doesn't look like suppression is as much a concern in the next 144 hours as it once looked. I get the feeling first measurable snow here will not come until Monday night at least, but perhaps not at all. Systems still look somewhat marginal for decent cold air. Some of the models are sowing some light qpf Monday but the Thursday system looks like the better opportunity for measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 12z GEM has a nice snowstorm for Minnesota and northern Wisconsin Wed-Thu. When the energy first moved into the Rockies it looked like it may form a stronger system further south. Looks like the southern stream vort weakens as the northern one takes over and becomes dominant, hence a further north storm. I think if we're gonna see any snow action further south and east we need the southern vort to be more dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The D7-8 storm on the 12z EURO looks quite ridiculous. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The D7-8 storm on the 12z EURO looks quite ridiculous. http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html you got me to look edit: lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The D7-8 storm on the 12z EURO looks quite ridiculous. http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html Yep, was just looking at this. Much stronger look to it than what the 12z GFS is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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