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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


IWXwx

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GFS longrange doesnt show it being transient... I'm thinking we have gotten the closest yet to real cold with these last few runs, we never punched through the 252 hour mark with sub freezing highs yet.... We now have cold in the 228 hour or less mark..

that euro map just looks horrible though and I tend to trust it over the gfs. Sure it's a cold look in the east...relatively speaking however. A big bubble of -8 (coldest air), with no northerly connection or block. Once it's out, and that ridge moves east, it looks as though xmas eve is setting up for seasonably mild....yuck.

Granted, it will most likely change. Unfortunately most of the changes that have occurred in the longrange have been in the wrong direction.

Sorry, this probably should be in the complaint thread.

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I'm trying to figure out why some in the 'other' regions are creaming themselves over the extended euro. That trough in the east looks like it's ready to exit stage right real fast, and when it does.... the table is set for a pretty mild time for xmas..

That really looks bad. Yeah, looks like a typical +EPO Pac flood of mild - warm air.

This view of the 12z looks like a bundling of the polar vortex is occurring. If that happens we can only hope its not going to set up shop there for weeks on end. (image is time sensitive)

00zeuro500mbHGHTNH240.gif

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Looking ahead.....and forgive me if Im being too positive...Id say chances for a white Christmas are decent for many here. Detroits White Christmas climo is 50/50 (versus say a 75/25 likelihood of a white Valentines Day). if you want to pull the climo card here, often times Decembers that have weeks of bare ground to start the month end up with White Christmases, and Decembers that start out white have bare Christmases. December is a wintry month, but certainly not favored to be as wintry as Jan and Feb, so the most likely outcome for a December is part wintry, part not (yes you have your wintry Dec 2000s and your winterless Dec 1998s, but thats NOT the norm). Its certainly possible December is a bust all the way around as so many seem to believe, but thinking about what Justin said in the other thread, & other mets as well...the models are useless past day 3-5, but the energy is there for storminess. When and where those storms will be is up in the air now, but I will be shocked if someone in this forum hasnt had a snowstorm by New Years. There doesnt seem to be any strong signal for arctic cold or torch, but as we head into the solstice now, "seasonable" weather is just fine for snow threats. And weve certainly done our time with a snowless first half of December...so why not? White Christmas on the way :)

Good post! Your right a total bust for an entire winter month is rare indeed. Wouldn't mind dealing with a 1998 December again, knowing January would be spectacular. :santa:

I have a strong feeling that this pattern will break down before the end of next week. I think the rise in the QBO will really help. Plan on posting a couple charts I made up later relating to that.

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Good post! Your right a total bust for an entire winter month is rare indeed. Wouldn't mind dealing with a 1998 December again, knowing January would be spectacular. :santa:

I have a strong feeling that this pattern will break down before the end of next week. I think the rise in the QBO will really help. Plan on posting a couple charts I made up later relating to that.

There are actually a lot of years where crappy Decembers yield good winters. 1984-85 had a very mild December followed by a very cold and snowy Jan-Feb. We all know about 1998-99. I say it all the time...I prefer a back-loaded winter but with a white Christmas. Though it is obvious that a weather board needs a front-loaded winter.

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There are actually a lot of years where crappy Decembers yield good winters. 1984-85 had a very mild December followed by a very cold and snowy Jan-Feb. We all know about 1998-99. I say it all the time...I prefer a back-loaded winter but with a white Christmas. Though it is obvious that a weather board needs a front-loaded winter.

This year especially, let's say we had a backloaded winter after 07-08 (our second snowiest year), I could have definitely accepted that. But after last winter and this horrible hot dry summer, I need instant gratification this winter it seems. I think most people would agree.

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This year especially, let's say we had a backloaded winter after 07-08 (our second snowiest year), I could have definitely accepted that. But after last winter and this horrible hot dry summer, I need instant gratification this winter it seems. I think most people would agree.

I hope backloaded means... extra long... Like ending around April 1st.

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Even worse when your financial well being depends on the white stuff... Been way too long WRT snow and the excitement of a good storm. In the snow buisiness you always keep a little nest egg in the reserve for a lull in the weather. Going into mid December with only a trace of snow happens once in a while but rarely in this magnitude.

On a bright note I am excited for the weather to break. Sooner or later something will happen, as of late the ground is getting colder and the frost is staying most of day in the shade. I'm in the slow December and whopper of Jan and Feb camp.

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This year especially, let's say we had a backloaded winter after 07-08 (our second snowiest year), I could have definitely accepted that. But after last winter and this horrible hot dry summer, I need instant gratification this winter it seems. I think most people would agree.

Keep in mind...by backloaded it doesnt mean there will be no snow the first half...it means the harshest part of winter will be the 2nd half. A 3rd fairly common winter is the bookend winter, where it begins and ends wintry but the middle (ie the dead of winter) is mild.

I don't think people realize how truly "uncommon" each of the last two winters were. Its quite uncommon to have a winter harsh all the way through (ie 2010-11 here) or mild all the way through (ie 2011-12). Did it snow every day in 2010-11? Of course not...but from December through March snowstorms kept traversing the area, with no real break, something that cannot be said even in many of our regions harshest winters (see '77-78). On the flipside....was it warm EVERY day in 2011-12? Of course not. And we saw numerous snowfalls as well. Problem is they melted quickly, and winter never stopped by for more than 2 or 3 days at a time, and rather than getting rewarded with a cold March (as is often the case in a mild winter) we had the warmest March on record!

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Keep in mind...by backloaded it doesnt mean there will be no snow the first half...it means the harshest part of winter will be the 2nd half. A 3rd fairly common winter is the bookend winter, where it begins and ends wintry but the middle (ie the dead of winter) is mild.

I don't think people realize how truly "uncommon" each of the last two winters were. Its quite uncommon to have a winter harsh all the way through (ie 2010-11 here) or mild all the way through (ie 2011-12). Did it snow every day in 2010-11? Of course not...but from December through March snowstorms kept traversing the area, with no real break, something that cannot be said even in many of our regions harshest winters (see '77-78). On the flipside....was it warm EVERY day in 2011-12? Of course not. And we saw numerous snowfalls as well. Problem is they melted quickly, and winter never stopped by for more than 2 or 3 days at a time, and rather than getting rewarded with a cold March (as is often the case in a mild winter) we had the warmest March on record!

Well in my case I think it will mean basically no snow through December (although I suppose we could get a lucky storm in here to plaster us), so that is nearly the first half of the winter season (December-February).

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Well in my case I think it will mean basically no snow through December (although I suppose we could get a lucky storm in here to plaster us), so that is nearly the first half of the winter season (December-February).

I will be shocked if you dont see snow by the end of December. You are speeding things up WAY too fast. December has 19 days to go. You are talking winter being half over and astronomical winter doesnt even BEGIN for 8 days :lmao: The halfway point of meteorological winter is 5 weeks away, and the halfway point of astronomical winter is 8 weeks away!

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The 00z Euro appears to have got rid of the warm idea it had in the longer range on previous runs. I don't have 2m temp maps but based on the high pressures, I'd say it was showing a pretty cold airmass in the eastern 1/2 of the US or so in the longer range.

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Pretty grinchy looking forecast from NIU this morning LOL....

And outside of the rain this weekend, with a possible exception of a minor

blip on Thursday, it's weather nil through the 27th of December. And,

because of the dry air, we're going to warm up a bit more than

expected today and tomorrow, so I boosted temperatures a notch. And don't

be surprised if localized urban areas hit 50 degrees today and/or

tomorrow.

The rest of the forecast discussion will be out around 1 PM.

Gilbert

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haha...meltdowns are creeping into the professional ranks. LOT has been trickling out snarking AFDs for weeks already.

Just did a quick scan of their AFDs over the past week hoping to see one where the first letters of each line spell out "PLEASE BRING SNOW" or something....nada :(

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I know most of us are concerned about our back yards...but what's most concerning about the potential pattern for the next two weeks is that our snow cover up north will go away.

I realize this isn't set in stone at this range...but it could be really shocking how much of the U.S. has bare ground on Christmas Day, especially in places that climatologically have an 85+ % chance of a White Christmas.

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The one positive is now that we're coming up on Christmas, it will become more true that "misery loves company". It's especially hard to be a snow lover at a time when everyone else seemingly is wishing it away and we're getting nothing, but around Christmas, at least half the public I would guess wants a White Christmas, so at least us snow weenies won't be alone in our misery. A small silver lining.

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