buckeye Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS longrange doesnt show it being transient... I'm thinking we have gotten the closest yet to real cold with these last few runs, we never punched through the 252 hour mark with sub freezing highs yet.... We now have cold in the 228 hour or less mark.. that euro map just looks horrible though and I tend to trust it over the gfs. Sure it's a cold look in the east...relatively speaking however. A big bubble of -8 (coldest air), with no northerly connection or block. Once it's out, and that ridge moves east, it looks as though xmas eve is setting up for seasonably mild....yuck. Granted, it will most likely change. Unfortunately most of the changes that have occurred in the longrange have been in the wrong direction. Sorry, this probably should be in the complaint thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm trying to figure out why some in the 'other' regions are creaming themselves over the extended euro. That trough in the east looks like it's ready to exit stage right real fast, and when it does.... the table is set for a pretty mild time for xmas.. That really looks bad. Yeah, looks like a typical +EPO Pac flood of mild - warm air. This view of the 12z looks like a bundling of the polar vortex is occurring. If that happens we can only hope its not going to set up shop there for weeks on end. (image is time sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 ...At least the CFS is rockin for the weeks after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Looking ahead.....and forgive me if Im being too positive...Id say chances for a white Christmas are decent for many here. Detroits White Christmas climo is 50/50 (versus say a 75/25 likelihood of a white Valentines Day). if you want to pull the climo card here, often times Decembers that have weeks of bare ground to start the month end up with White Christmases, and Decembers that start out white have bare Christmases. December is a wintry month, but certainly not favored to be as wintry as Jan and Feb, so the most likely outcome for a December is part wintry, part not (yes you have your wintry Dec 2000s and your winterless Dec 1998s, but thats NOT the norm). Its certainly possible December is a bust all the way around as so many seem to believe, but thinking about what Justin said in the other thread, & other mets as well...the models are useless past day 3-5, but the energy is there for storminess. When and where those storms will be is up in the air now, but I will be shocked if someone in this forum hasnt had a snowstorm by New Years. There doesnt seem to be any strong signal for arctic cold or torch, but as we head into the solstice now, "seasonable" weather is just fine for snow threats. And weve certainly done our time with a snowless first half of December...so why not? White Christmas on the way Good post! Your right a total bust for an entire winter month is rare indeed. Wouldn't mind dealing with a 1998 December again, knowing January would be spectacular. I have a strong feeling that this pattern will break down before the end of next week. I think the rise in the QBO will really help. Plan on posting a couple charts I made up later relating to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Good post! Your right a total bust for an entire winter month is rare indeed. Wouldn't mind dealing with a 1998 December again, knowing January would be spectacular. I have a strong feeling that this pattern will break down before the end of next week. I think the rise in the QBO will really help. Plan on posting a couple charts I made up later relating to that. There are actually a lot of years where crappy Decembers yield good winters. 1984-85 had a very mild December followed by a very cold and snowy Jan-Feb. We all know about 1998-99. I say it all the time...I prefer a back-loaded winter but with a white Christmas. Though it is obvious that a weather board needs a front-loaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 There are actually a lot of years where crappy Decembers yield good winters. 1984-85 had a very mild December followed by a very cold and snowy Jan-Feb. We all know about 1998-99. I say it all the time...I prefer a back-loaded winter but with a white Christmas. Though it is obvious that a weather board needs a front-loaded winter. This year especially, let's say we had a backloaded winter after 07-08 (our second snowiest year), I could have definitely accepted that. But after last winter and this horrible hot dry summer, I need instant gratification this winter it seems. I think most people would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Most children and those right out of college nowadays need instant gratification no matter what or else they whine and cry a puddle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 This year especially, let's say we had a backloaded winter after 07-08 (our second snowiest year), I could have definitely accepted that. But after last winter and this horrible hot dry summer, I need instant gratification this winter it seems. I think most people would agree. I hope backloaded means... extra long... Like ending around April 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Even worse when your financial well being depends on the white stuff... Been way too long WRT snow and the excitement of a good storm. In the snow buisiness you always keep a little nest egg in the reserve for a lull in the weather. Going into mid December with only a trace of snow happens once in a while but rarely in this magnitude. On a bright note I am excited for the weather to break. Sooner or later something will happen, as of late the ground is getting colder and the frost is staying most of day in the shade. I'm in the slow December and whopper of Jan and Feb camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Since we didn't have a winter last year, I forgot what a good pattern even looks like on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I wouldnt mind any other December since 2000 with the exemption of 2006 and 2011. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 This year especially, let's say we had a backloaded winter after 07-08 (our second snowiest year), I could have definitely accepted that. But after last winter and this horrible hot dry summer, I need instant gratification this winter it seems. I think most people would agree. Keep in mind...by backloaded it doesnt mean there will be no snow the first half...it means the harshest part of winter will be the 2nd half. A 3rd fairly common winter is the bookend winter, where it begins and ends wintry but the middle (ie the dead of winter) is mild. I don't think people realize how truly "uncommon" each of the last two winters were. Its quite uncommon to have a winter harsh all the way through (ie 2010-11 here) or mild all the way through (ie 2011-12). Did it snow every day in 2010-11? Of course not...but from December through March snowstorms kept traversing the area, with no real break, something that cannot be said even in many of our regions harshest winters (see '77-78). On the flipside....was it warm EVERY day in 2011-12? Of course not. And we saw numerous snowfalls as well. Problem is they melted quickly, and winter never stopped by for more than 2 or 3 days at a time, and rather than getting rewarded with a cold March (as is often the case in a mild winter) we had the warmest March on record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Keep in mind...by backloaded it doesnt mean there will be no snow the first half...it means the harshest part of winter will be the 2nd half. A 3rd fairly common winter is the bookend winter, where it begins and ends wintry but the middle (ie the dead of winter) is mild. I don't think people realize how truly "uncommon" each of the last two winters were. Its quite uncommon to have a winter harsh all the way through (ie 2010-11 here) or mild all the way through (ie 2011-12). Did it snow every day in 2010-11? Of course not...but from December through March snowstorms kept traversing the area, with no real break, something that cannot be said even in many of our regions harshest winters (see '77-78). On the flipside....was it warm EVERY day in 2011-12? Of course not. And we saw numerous snowfalls as well. Problem is they melted quickly, and winter never stopped by for more than 2 or 3 days at a time, and rather than getting rewarded with a cold March (as is often the case in a mild winter) we had the warmest March on record! Well in my case I think it will mean basically no snow through December (although I suppose we could get a lucky storm in here to plaster us), so that is nearly the first half of the winter season (December-February). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Well in my case I think it will mean basically no snow through December (although I suppose we could get a lucky storm in here to plaster us), so that is nearly the first half of the winter season (December-February). I will be shocked if you dont see snow by the end of December. You are speeding things up WAY too fast. December has 19 days to go. You are talking winter being half over and astronomical winter doesnt even BEGIN for 8 days The halfway point of meteorological winter is 5 weeks away, and the halfway point of astronomical winter is 8 weeks away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Getting shutout in December in a literal sense (I'm talking 0.0") is pretty hard to do where most of us live. Finishing with 0.6" or 1.3" would pretty much feel like a shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Getting shutout in December in a literal sense (I'm talking 0.0") is pretty hard to do where most of us live. Finishing with 0.6" or 1.3" would pretty much feel like a shutout. Can't say I mind days like today though. Makes winter so much more bearable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Nothing about today makes winter more bearable. Give me seasonal or even well below temps with light winds any day over low to mid 40's with winds gusting to 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The 00z Euro appears to have got rid of the warm idea it had in the longer range on previous runs. I don't have 2m temp maps but based on the high pressures, I'd say it was showing a pretty cold airmass in the eastern 1/2 of the US or so in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Pretty grinchy looking forecast from NIU this morning LOL.... And outside of the rain this weekend, with a possible exception of a minor blip on Thursday, it's weather nil through the 27th of December. And, because of the dry air, we're going to warm up a bit more than expected today and tomorrow, so I boosted temperatures a notch. And don't be surprised if localized urban areas hit 50 degrees today and/or tomorrow. The rest of the forecast discussion will be out around 1 PM. Gilbert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 haha...meltdowns are creeping into the professional ranks. LOT has been trickling out snarking AFDs for weeks already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 There was nothing in todays 12z models that give any type of hope. Just typical weak fantasy garbage. NE mets are talking about punting to Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 haha...meltdowns are creeping into the professional ranks. LOT has been trickling out snarking AFDs for weeks already. Just did a quick scan of their AFDs over the past week hoping to see one where the first letters of each line spell out "PLEASE BRING SNOW" or something....nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Could DTW go a whole month of December with less then Inch of snow? Whats the percentage chance at this point. I say its about 15% chance that this could happen. As we stand right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Could DTW go a whole month of December with less then Inch of snow? Whats the percentage chance at this point. I say its about 15% Lock it in! Jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I know most of us are concerned about our back yards...but what's most concerning about the potential pattern for the next two weeks is that our snow cover up north will go away. I realize this isn't set in stone at this range...but it could be really shocking how much of the U.S. has bare ground on Christmas Day, especially in places that climatologically have an 85+ % chance of a White Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Could DTW go a whole month of December with less then Inch of snow? Whats the percentage chance at this point. I say its about 15% chance that this could happen. As we stand right now how many tenths do you have to-date. If less than .5...i'd put you at close to a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The one positive is now that we're coming up on Christmas, it will become more true that "misery loves company". It's especially hard to be a snow lover at a time when everyone else seemingly is wishing it away and we're getting nothing, but around Christmas, at least half the public I would guess wants a White Christmas, so at least us snow weenies won't be alone in our misery. A small silver lining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Pattern might tend to become suppressive for a while if the longer range guidance is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 There was nothing in todays 12z models that give any type of hope. Just typical weak fantasy garbage. NE mets are talking about punting to Feb We can't accurately predict 10 days out, but 48 days out is ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 12z Euro is turning on the freezer at 192+ as it drops cold air in from Canada. 1050 MB high pressure sneaking into Montana at 240 hours. The 12z GFS has a 1046 MB high over South Dakota at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.