Ajdos Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The active Pac jet probably works two ways, moves air off the continent too quick and doesn't allow a block to setup shop.... That's most likely why this pattern won't crack. I think an el Nino would have been in our best interest, now we are stuck with a neutral semi similar setup as last year.... Same setup, same results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I don't recall two significant storms last year like we had in the second half in December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 So the GFS is showing a cut off just like the Euro for later next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 And that setup in April on the NAM/GFS at 54-60 hrs would likely be a pretty major severe weather/tornado outbreak...we'll see what happens come Spring if we can get anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Cold shot looks like it won't get shunted east quite as quickly on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Cold shot looks like it won't get shunted east quite as quickly on the 12z Euro. 468 dm thicknesses and a core of -40C air at 850 mb north of the border at 204 hours. Mighty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Big improvement on the long range Euro... Cold now exists, unlike the 00Z run where it completely vanished. This still might be the SSW and modeling issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 SSW over the Arctic>>> http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2013/01/does-sudden-warming-high-up-in.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 468 dm thicknesses and a core of -40C air at 850 mb north of the border at 204 hours. Mighty impressive. Yes indeed. I think we're getting fairly confident that significant cold will hit somewhere in S Canada or the US...but the exact location is still TBD. For example, the 12z Euro drops some -38C air at 850 mb into N Maine by day 10...yikes. Do you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I wouldn't take truncated data to seriously. Notice the speed at which hour 1-180 takes to come in... And then 180-364 is about 1/3rd the time... Less computation must be performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yes indeed. I think we're getting fairly confident that significant cold will hit somewhere in S Canada or the US...but the exact location is still TBD. For example, the 12z Euro drops some -38C air at 850 mb into N Maine by day 10...yikes. Do you agree? A lot of cold will be getting dumped into Canada...that is pretty much certain. What happens beyond that is up in the air. If snowcover doesn't get replenished then it would certainly cause the airmass to not be as cold as it could be but my gut feeling is that we don't make it through the month without a significant arctic outbreak or two into the region. Besides what's being hinted at on some of the models, late January has also been a climatologically favored time for such to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I got some interesting analysis links for studying the evolution of northern hemispheric pattens. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~hakim/tropo/ (click on the "animate" button to see it in motion) http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ It looks like the problem is a locked in wave number 1&2 trough stuck over eastern Asia extending out over the western Pacific. The whole pattern has to retrograde west 90 degrees or so to get the classic blocking pattern that will drive colder air into N. America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 If more agreement begins to exist between the models on the weekend potential backend snow (especially if the energy trends stronger) it would make sense to start a thread, as it is only three to four days away if anything decent comes of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The active Pac jet probably works two ways, moves air off the continent too quick and doesn't allow a block to setup shop.... That's most likely why this pattern won't crack. I think an el Nino would have been in our best interest, now we are stuck with a neutral semi similar setup as last year.... Same setup, same results. This is NOTHING like last year, either in terms of sensible weather or in terms of the pattern itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 This is NOTHING like last year, either in terms of sensible weather or in terms of the pattern itself. It has been torchy overall like last year, and there have been rather variable snowfall amounts, in some cases snowfall futility similar to last year. You can sugarcoat it however you want, but on the whole, it has not been a favorable one so far for winter lovers unless they lucked out with one of our two or three synoptic storms we have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 It has been torchy overall like last year, and there have been rather variable snowfall amounts, in some cases snowfall futility similar to last year. You can sugarcoat it however you want, but on the whole, it has not been a favorable one so far for winter lovers unless they lucked out with one of our two or three synoptic storms we have had. All depends on where you're talking about. On the whole, I think Josh is more right than wrong, but there's something more than an isolated area of the subforum that has had it as bad or even worse than last winter up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 This is NOTHING like last year, either in terms of sensible weather or in terms of the pattern itself. Both sucked, the 21-31st period was better than last year, but the month started out worse than last year and temps were warmer this year. Nothing approached North Dakota's terrible start last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yeah it is nothing like last winter, this past December was much worse and more widespread with the warmth except across the Dakotas where it was warmer last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 This is NOTHING like last year, either in terms of sensible weather or in terms of the pattern itself. Your right. This is worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 As with anything, it is relevant based on perspective. We have had 16", and only 5" off our season average. This is much better than last year. Not something all can say in the subforum, I get that. But for my area it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 As with anything, it is relevant based on perspective. We have had 16", and only 5" off our season average. This is much better than last year. Not something all can say in the subforum, I get that. But for my area it is. Winter was 100% dead from Dec 1st until the 21st... Last winter wasn't quite that bad to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 All depends on where you're talking about. On the whole, I think Josh is more right than wrong, but there's something more than an isolated area of the subforum that has had it as bad or even worse than last winter up to this point. How about we just play this simple game. If it is snowing outside, lets say "this is just like 2 years ago" and if its warmer than normal we will say "this is just like last year". Thats all thats needed for this board. I have been hearing this since the beginning of NOVEMBER, "this is just like last winter". In a general regional sense...this year we saw 65% of the US snowcovered in late-Dec, a figure we did not come close to at ANY point last year. Check out snowfall to-date at cities throughout the midwest and Ohio Valley and outside of Chicago/Milwaukee you will see totals ahead if not well ahead of last year. Now, for my fellow SE MI posters (since Ive heard this "just like last year" phrase multiple times from some here), I will compare the last 2 winters to date at Detroit: NOV 2011: Wettest November on record, as well as the 5th warmest NOV 2012: 6th driest November on record, as well as COLDER than normal temps (6.2F COLDER than 2011) DEC 2011: First 11 days were just 1F above normal with a few snowfalls, then torch took hold the remainder of the month DEC 2012: All out torch the first 20 days of the month, before snowy and colder than normal weather took over JAN 1-9, 2012: A 1-day cold spell and dusting of snow then torch, bare ground JAN 1-9, 2013: Snowcovered, started colder than normal then turned mild Additional notes: ~Today was the 16th consecutive day with 1"+ snowcover, the most days in a row last year was 5. ~This season has had 17 days with 1"+ snowcover. TOTAL last year was 20 (Normal is 48). Snow season is just 35% through so far ~DTW has already seen a 6"+ storm (6.2" on Dec 26/27) after seeing none last year (biggest 4.8") ~We went 11 days in a row without seeing a + temp departure....longest consecutive stretch last winter was 5 ~Last year saw a TOTAL of 3 days with a snow depth of 4"+. This year there have been 12. ~Through Jan 9, 2012 the season had 32 days with a low of 32F or colder. Through Jan 9, 2013 that number is 49. And of course...when you take all the sensible weather pattern out of the mix...the actual "pattern" has been nothing like 2011-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Your right. This is worse. Please elaborate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Winter was 100% dead from Dec 1st until the 21st... Last winter wasn't quite that bad to start. You are correct, last December did not start out as bad as this December. Also last year...we went from Dec 11th til Jan 14th without seeing a snow depth of 1"+. From Dec 11th to Jan 9th this year we have had 17 days with a snow depth of 1"+. Also when this "just like last year" phrase became rampant in November, whenever it was pointed out that this November was COLD AND DRY and last November it was WARM AND WET, I kept hearing FROM MANY basically "what does it matter, if there isnt snow its the same in my book". So...NOW that that the snow season has gotten off to a WAYYY better start than last winter did, we revert simply back to the Dec 1-31st temp departure maps to show how this winter is "just like last year". This is absolutely classic!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Compared to last year this winter has been better for some Worse for some And the same for some. Although I'm sure someone will find a way to argue with that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Winter was 100% dead from Dec 1st until the 21st... Last winter wasn't quite that bad to start. That is correct, but as i say, it is relevant....if winter ended today, for me, here, i would end much better than last winter, in summation. I totally get, my area is not everyone, heck the company i own is based on spatial analysis and how geographic locations vary from mile to mile...i do hear you....was simply stating for us here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Your right. This is worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Models more than hinting now that the main piece of energy from that trough next week will simply shear out rather than amplify and develop into anything of substance. This January is rapidly turning into a disaster. Again though, last week salvage job a la December keeps me hanging on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Compared to last year this winter has been better for some Worse for some And the same for some. Although I'm sure someone will find a way to argue with that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Models more than hinting now that the main piece of energy from that trough next week will simply shear out rather than amplify and develop into anything of substance. This January is rapidly turning into a disaster. Again though, last week salvage job a la December keeps me hanging on. Atmosphere is going out of it's way to run the pattern change into the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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