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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


IWXwx

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The active Pac jet probably works two ways, moves air off the continent too quick and doesn't allow a block to setup shop.... That's most likely why this pattern won't crack. I think an el Nino would have been in our best interest, now we are stuck with a neutral semi similar setup as last year.... Same setup, same results.

 

:facepalm:

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468 dm thicknesses and a core of -40C air at 850 mb north of the border at 204 hours. Mighty impressive.

Yes indeed. 

 

I think we're getting fairly confident that significant cold will hit somewhere in S Canada or the US...but the exact location is still TBD.  For example, the 12z Euro drops some -38C air at 850 mb into N Maine by day 10...yikes. 

 

Do you agree?

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Yes indeed.

I think we're getting fairly confident that significant cold will hit somewhere in S Canada or the US...but the exact location is still TBD. For example, the 12z Euro drops some -38C air at 850 mb into N Maine by day 10...yikes.

Do you agree?

A lot of cold will be getting dumped into Canada...that is pretty much certain. What happens beyond that is up in the air. If snowcover doesn't get replenished then it would certainly cause the airmass to not be as cold as it could be but my gut feeling is that we don't make it through the month without a significant arctic outbreak or two into the region. Besides what's being hinted at on some of the models, late January has also been a climatologically favored time for such to occur.

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I got some interesting analysis links for studying the evolution of northern hemispheric pattens.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~hakim/tropo/  (click on the "animate" button to see it in motion)

 

http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/

 

It looks like the problem is a locked in wave number 1&2 trough stuck over eastern Asia extending out over the western Pacific.  The whole pattern has to retrograde west 90 degrees or so to get the classic blocking pattern that will drive colder air into N. America. 

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The active Pac jet probably works two ways, moves air off the continent too quick and doesn't allow a block to setup shop.... That's most likely why this pattern won't crack. I think an el Nino would have been in our best interest, now we are stuck with a neutral semi similar setup as last year.... Same setup, same results.

 

This is NOTHING like last year, either in terms of sensible weather or in terms of the pattern itself.

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This is NOTHING like last year, either in terms of sensible weather or in terms of the pattern itself.

 

It has been torchy overall like last year, and there have been rather variable snowfall amounts, in some cases snowfall futility similar to last year.  You can sugarcoat it however you want, but on the whole, it has not been a favorable one so far for winter lovers unless they lucked out with one of our two or three synoptic storms we have had.

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It has been torchy overall like last year, and there have been rather variable snowfall amounts, in some cases snowfall futility similar to last year. You can sugarcoat it however you want, but on the whole, it has not been a favorable one so far for winter lovers unless they lucked out with one of our two or three synoptic storms we have had.

All depends on where you're talking about. On the whole, I think Josh is more right than wrong, but there's something more than an isolated area of the subforum that has had it as bad or even worse than last winter up to this point.

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This is NOTHING like last year, either in terms of sensible weather or in terms of the pattern itself.

 

 

 

 

Both sucked, the 21-31st period was better than last year, but the month started out worse than last year and temps were warmer this year. Nothing approached North Dakota's terrible start last year.

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As with anything, it is relevant based on perspective. We have had 16", and only 5" off our season average. This is much better than last year. Not something all can say in the subforum, I get that. But for my area it is.

Winter was 100% dead from Dec 1st until the 21st... Last winter wasn't quite that bad to start.

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All depends on where you're talking about. On the whole, I think Josh is more right than wrong, but there's something more than an isolated area of the subforum that has had it as bad or even worse than last winter up to this point.

How about we just play this simple game. If it is snowing outside, lets say "this is just like 2 years ago" and if its warmer than normal we will say "this is just like last year". Thats all thats needed for this board.

 

I have been hearing this since the beginning of NOVEMBER, "this is just like last winter". In a general regional sense...this year we saw 65% of the US snowcovered in late-Dec, a figure we did not come close to at ANY point last year. Check out snowfall to-date at cities throughout the midwest and Ohio Valley and outside of Chicago/Milwaukee you will see totals ahead if not well ahead of last year.

 

Now, for my fellow SE MI posters (since Ive heard this "just like last year" phrase multiple times from some here), I will compare the last 2 winters to date at Detroit:

NOV 2011: Wettest November on record, as well as the 5th warmest

NOV 2012: 6th driest November on record, as well as COLDER than normal temps (6.2F COLDER than 2011)

 

DEC 2011: First 11 days were just 1F above normal with a few snowfalls, then torch took hold the remainder of the month

DEC 2012: All out torch the first 20 days of the month, before snowy and colder than normal weather took over

 

JAN 1-9, 2012: A 1-day cold spell and dusting of snow then torch, bare ground

JAN 1-9, 2013: Snowcovered, started colder than normal then turned mild

 

Additional notes:

~Today was the 16th consecutive day with 1"+ snowcover, the most days in a row last year was 5.

~This season has had 17 days with 1"+ snowcover. TOTAL last year was 20 (Normal is 48). Snow season is just 35% through so far

~DTW has already seen a 6"+ storm (6.2" on Dec 26/27) after seeing none last year (biggest 4.8")

~We went 11 days in a row without seeing a + temp departure....longest consecutive stretch last winter was 5

~Last year saw a TOTAL of 3 days with a snow depth of 4"+. This year there have been 12.

~Through Jan 9, 2012 the season had 32 days with a low of 32F or colder. Through Jan 9, 2013 that number is 49.

 

And of course...when you take all the sensible weather pattern out of the mix...the actual "pattern" has been nothing like 2011-12.

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Winter was 100% dead from Dec 1st until the 21st... Last winter wasn't quite that bad to start.

 

You are correct, last December did not start out as bad as this December. Also last year...we went from Dec 11th til Jan 14th without seeing a snow depth of 1"+. From Dec 11th to Jan 9th this year we have had 17 days with a snow depth of 1"+.

 

Also when this "just like last year" phrase became rampant in November, whenever it was pointed out that this November was COLD AND DRY and last November it was WARM AND WET, I kept hearing FROM MANY basically "what does it matter, if there isnt snow its the same in my book". So...NOW that that the snow season has gotten off to a WAYYY better start than last winter did, we revert simply back to the Dec 1-31st temp departure maps to show how this winter is "just like last year". This is absolutely classic!!!

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Winter was 100% dead from Dec 1st until the 21st... Last winter wasn't quite that bad to start.

 

That is correct, but as i say, it is relevant....if winter ended today, for me, here, i would end much better than last winter, in summation.

 

I totally get, my area is not everyone, heck the company i own is based on spatial analysis and how geographic locations vary from mile to mile...i do hear you....was simply stating for us here....

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Models more than hinting now that the main piece of energy from that trough next week will simply shear out rather than amplify and develop into anything of substance. This January is rapidly turning into a disaster.

 

Again though, last week salvage job a la December keeps me hanging on.

 

Atmosphere is going out of it's way to run the pattern change into the ground.

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