QVectorman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Quotes are working for me but posted this in NE forum... Yup agree with you on dates...rehashing just the dates I laid out a few weeks ago for shortwaves/cooler-colder periods... Jan 15-19 Jan 20-24 Jan 24-27 and Jan 27-29 and Feb 1-5. And the latest CCKW map shows a extra tropical rossby wave train at 160W 30N and a developing one at 140E 20N along with the CCKW at 150E 0N. The 140E train is likely a bi product of the MJO moving through the w. pacific so it may be our first piece of energy thanks to the MJO. The timing of these match up to the dates we have all been throwing around on here. The 160W RW should move over the eastern US on Jan 14-15 and the 140E should pass over the eastern US Jan. 22-23. Time frame Tip was throwing around based on the PNA. Also watching the GWO, the analogs are pointing to an arctic blast of air Jan 23-26. I need another 2 days watching the signal to confirm this so it may be +-2 days on that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 You're not kidding was having a discussion in a broadcast met group and everyone's head is spinning trying to keep up with all the different solutions that come out with each run of Euro and GFS. They have changed every run today and that's been the hallmark for the past week since this started building in the strat. I'm just using the ensembles, but even those might be WAY off. Isn't a SSW of this magnitude a once in every 2-3 year event? I doubt the models can be programmed for something that unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 This is in HMs bomb potential time frame. Bring that northern energy a lil further south and stronger and then we may be talking. Not to say something won't come out of the initial shortwaves rounding the base of the trough, but this is the storm I'm putting all of my chips on. Definitely good potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The East side of the state isn't unless the winds are NNE, or NE for the thumb. Plus most places East of US127 don't cash in on enough LES to make a huge difference. Often US 131 is the dividing line between steady accumulations and passing showers for standard NW flow events. Synoptic enhancement from a passing clipper will drive the snow further inland, but those are usually quick hitting. The best LES scenario for GRR is a nice closed low sitting over northern Ontario or SW wrap-around on the back side of a major bombed out low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I'm just using the ensembles, but even those might be WAY off. Isn't a SSW of this magnitude a once in every 2-3 year event? I doubt the models can be programmed for something that unusual. That's more of a DTK area. I just know they don't handle those events for the lower tropo. very well. They did forecast the SSW two weeks ago so the physics is there for the stratospheric forecasts. I just don't know if they have updated equations for strat. trop. interactions in the past several years or if there has been advances made in those equations over the past couple years in the academic community. Most of the work I have seen is just figuring out the difference btwn propagating and non propagating events from atm. data and how to classify these events better. http://curriculum.pmartineau.webfactional.com/ssw-animations/ here is one site with one version of classification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Oh I know it will change. Just looks like an interesting setup. Its like a constant stream moisture from the gulf heading NE...parts of the south look like a lock for flooding. A thing that's frustrating with these kinds of storms is the influence of moisture-robbing convection on the warm side of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 This GFS is killing me.... Going from sub zero temps to 50+ temps in 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The GFS has been too aggressive all year with bringing in the cold. The failure to generate anything resembling a decent storm during the transition period doesn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The GFS has been too aggressive all year with bringing in the cold. The failure to generate anything resembling a decent storm during the transition period doesn't help. The euro confirms the disaster too... Uhg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 6z GFS is ugly too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 6z GFS is ugly too. The Pac jet is relentless..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The run to run consistency on the GFS has been horrible. The potential Tuesday storm is no longer there and the only real chance at some accumulating snow would be on the backside of the cold front on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The run to run consistency on the GFS has been horrible. The potential Tuesday storm is no longer there and the only real chance at some accumulating snow would be on the backside of the cold front on Sunday. The euro is onboard with the glancing cold shot, so my faith in favorable weather is fading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The euro is onboard with the glancing cold shot, so my faith in favorable weather is fading. Yeah the Euro looks even worse than the GFS, no notable cold air or any precipitation to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yeah the Euro looks even worse than the GFS, no notable cold air or any precipitation to speak of. I'm not worried too much about the post day 6 or so period...model consistency has been awful. The trend away from big storms during the transition period is a bummer but things still look chaotic enough in the long range to hold some interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I'm not worried too much about the post day 6 or so period...model consistency has been awful. The trend away from big storms during the transition period is a bummer but things still look chaotic enough in the long range to hold some interest. For sure, I am taking each run with a grain of salt. The setup is favorable for something, we just need a piece of energy to hook up with that baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 For sure, I am taking each run with a grain of salt. The setup is favorable for something, we just need a piece of energy to hook up with that baroclinic zone. timing issues remain pretty major...the 16th-17th period looks like the best shot of the bunch but the baroclinic zone as modeled on the most reliable models is pretty far east by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 timing issues remain pretty major...the 16th-17th period looks like the best shot of the bunch but the baroclinic zone as modeled on the most reliable models is pretty far east by then. Yup, may be too little too late. I am hoping the northern stream can become active and send a couple clippers our way if this next week or so fails to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yikes on the 6z GFS... Doesn't even look remotely cold...if anything maybe a little above norm...considering this time frame is the coldest time of the year here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yikes on the 6z GFS... Doesn't even look remotely cold...if anything maybe a little above norm...considering this time frame is the coldest time of the year here. Plus our snowpack will be all but gone by Saturday I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yikes on the 6z GFS... Doesn't even look remotely cold...if anything maybe a little above norm...considering this time frame is the coldest time of the year here. The 11-15 day went from -20 anomaly to +20 in the same timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yikes on the 6z GFS... Doesn't even look remotely cold...if anything maybe a little above norm...considering this time frame is the coldest time of the year here. Really frustrating how this keeps happening, with the models showing an arctic outbreak then backing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The 11-15 day went from -20 anomaly to +20 in the same timeframe. this isn't awful for your concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Really frustrating how this keeps happening, with the models showing an arctic outbreak then backing down. OB You really have to stop looking at operational model runs of the GFS every 6 hours. If you look at the 6z GEFS it doesn't even look remotely close to the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 this isn't awful for your concerns The problem, though, is that it warms right back up, at least as per the GFS. Just a glancing blow of arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 this isn't awful for your concerns That looks like a nice clipper track. Too bad it is not for this upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 OB You really have to stop looking at operational model runs of the GFS every 6 hours. If you look at the 6z GEFS it doesn't even look remotely close to the OP run. I get your point. It is just one run, and the models have been all over the place lately, perhaps due to not knowing how to handle the PV. It just looks familiar to what happened with the New Years cold shot. Up to a week before, that looked to be brutal, then the models started to back off and it became a non-event, for those of south of 44 north that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The problem, though, is that it warms right back up, at least as per the GFS. Just a glancing blow of arctic air. i wouldn't be too concerned with fantasy range...we're still going to see some of the years coldest air over the lakes, so those with LES interests shouldn't totally give up. The lack of a signal for a big winter storm during the change is a bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The active Pac jet probably works two ways, moves air off the continent too quick and doesn't allow a block to setup shop.... That's most likely why this pattern won't crack. I think an el Nino would have been in our best interest, now we are stuck with a neutral semi similar setup as last year.... Same setup, same results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The active Pac jet probably works two ways, moves air off the continent too quick and doesn't allow a block to setup shop.... That's most likely why this pattern won't crack.I think an el Nino would have been in our best interest, now we are stuck with a neutral semi similar setup as last year.... Same setup, same results. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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