Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Those maps are lol worthy. As much as the CFS weeklies/monthlies usually are on a day to day basis. For fun, here's today's CFS weeklies through the end of Dec/beginning of Jan. Gonna be hard to get snow when it's an all out torch. Not to play this game too much, but today's CFS weeklies are a bit different in week 3. Week 1 and 2 are still a torch, but Week 3 the transition to the continually frigid week 4 (as per every CFS run) takes place. Precip link added as well. Anyway, just for fun. Temps http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20121210.NAsfcT.gif Precip http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20121210.NA.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm sorry, but I may have to hope for a torch after Christmas; it's job related. So what's it looking like after X-Mas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The GGEM has developed a cold bias since its "reconfiguration". Great job guys. I wouldn't get to hyped up about any model run, nor would I get hyped up about any "snowstorm". The Pac Jet is in control and indeed, there is little cold air to work with. It is pure what ifs. Cold bias rule is in effect to this pattern changes. Boy you said it. Euro 240 and coldest 850 temps in the conus are -8.....Dec 21st! Canada looks pretty warm relatively speaking as well. This could get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 from DVN LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY BUDGET IN COMBINATION WITH TELECONNECTIONS AND OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST WEEK CONFIRMS A VERY ACTIVE WX PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. BASED ON MORE RECENT DATA... THIS ACTIVE WX PATTERN WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS LOOKS TO LAST ANOTHER TWO WEEKS...POSSIBLY LONGER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 from DVN LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY BUDGET IN COMBINATION WITH TELECONNECTIONS AND OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST WEEK CONFIRMS A VERY ACTIVE WX PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. BASED ON MORE RECENT DATA... THIS ACTIVE WX PATTERN WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS LOOKS TO LAST ANOTHER TWO WEEKS...POSSIBLY LONGER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Looks like suppression for the most part, and if it happens that way pretty much the worst case scenario to start the winter for most of this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Boy you said it. Euro 240 and coldest 850 temps in the conus are -8.....Dec 21st! Canada looks pretty warm relatively speaking as well. This could get ugly. The Euro ensemble mean for 240. Better get out the sunscreen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Speaking of medium and long range. A little perspective. I should be under a winterstorm watch warning right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Speaking of medium and long range. A little perspective. I should be under a winterstorm watch warning right now. ...Ohio did just have a serious winter storm. We are just hallucinating that it is mild and snowless outside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The best is how he used the word "likely" http://www.bing.com/Dictionary/search?q=define+likely&qpvt=definition+of+likely&FORM=DTPDIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 A few in this thread would be wise to look at post #71 and memorize it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The best is how he used the word "likely" I used to read Cosgrove's bull**** on a daily basis. Misspent youth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I used to read Cosgrove's bull**** on a daily basis. Misspent youth. I'm really enjoying the 'edgieness' this weather has brought out in you. We get a January like last year and you just might be the first banned Canadian from the forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm really enjoying the 'edgieness' this weather has brought out in you. We get a January like last year and you just might be the first banned Canadian from the forum! And whoever bans me might be doing me a huge favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm really enjoying the 'edgieness' this weather has brought out in you. We get a January like last year and you just might be the first banned Canadian from the forum! But I doubt anyone would blame him. I think it's bad enough in most of the Midwest, but clearly he's had it worse. Seems he's kept a decent attitude for a long time, but eventually one just has to vent as impatience sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I used to read Cosgrove's bull**** on a daily basis. Misspent youth. Yeah, I used to post in the Canadian weather forums where Cosgrove used to post outlooks weekly. He's as bad as JB for hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm really enjoying the 'edgieness' this weather has brought out in you. We get a January like last year and you just might be the first banned Canadian from the forum! Though I have repeatedly said the only exciting thing was the arctic front snowstorm last Feb 10/11, if I had to pick a most-tolerable month of winter last year, it was January. A few very cold days (emphasis on few), and several shovelable snowfalls the 2nd half of the month. We actually had already seen several inches by this time last December, but mid-Dec through mid-Jan was "torch"ure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Looking ahead.....and forgive me if Im being too positive...Id say chances for a white Christmas are decent for many here. Detroits White Christmas climo is 50/50 (versus say a 75/25 likelihood of a white Valentines Day). if you want to pull the climo card here, often times Decembers that have weeks of bare ground to start the month end up with White Christmases, and Decembers that start out white have bare Christmases. December is a wintry month, but certainly not favored to be as wintry as Jan and Feb, so the most likely outcome for a December is part wintry, part not (yes you have your wintry Dec 2000s and your winterless Dec 1998s, but thats NOT the norm). Its certainly possible December is a bust all the way around as so many seem to believe, but thinking about what Justin said in the other thread, & other mets as well...the models are useless past day 3-5, but the energy is there for storminess. When and where those storms will be is up in the air now, but I will be shocked if someone in this forum hasnt had a snowstorm by New Years. There doesnt seem to be any strong signal for arctic cold or torch, but as we head into the solstice now, "seasonable" weather is just fine for snow threats. And weve certainly done our time with a snowless first half of December...so why not? White Christmas on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I too think the weather is going to turn more winter like in these parts. With the models so all over the place there is no long term crystal ball. All streaks come to an end sooner or later and this one will be over soon !! Why ??? Positive thinking and I changed my avatar !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah, I used to post in the Canadian weather forums where Cosgrove used to post outlooks weekly. He's as bad as JB for hype. Back in the 80's Cosgrove use to be the chief OCM for the local ABC affiliate here in Columbus. I was in highschool at the time and I loved watching him. I recall one winter, I believe a strong elnino, in which it seemed there was a storm EVERY week like clock work, except they all rode up to our west and were all rainstorms for us. LC would keep hope alive up until a couple of days before each storm insisting that THIS ONE was going to be THE ONE that rode up to our east and would give us a snowstorm. Of course it never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Ok, we have the cold pattern within 228 hours now.... The future is catching up to the present for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 fantasy range and still no ensemble agreement ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 fantasy range and still no ensemble agreement ^ Ensembles aren't as aggressive, but they have been equally terrible in long range. There is really no reason to put more stock in one over the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Ok, we have the cold pattern within 228 hours now.... The future is catching up to the present for once. Look at the pukeific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Look at the pukeific Who knows what the "real" pattern change will look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 According to the NCEP, the huge positive EPO for next week looks to be temporary with it go negative towards the 20 - 21 timeframe. The PNA is still negative but less negative. This all is a step in the right direction. Could there be PNA ridging in January?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 According to the NCEP, the huge positive EPO for next week looks to be temporary with it go negative towards the 20 - 21 timeframe. The PNA is still negative but less negative. This all is a step in the right direction. Could there be PNA ridging in January?? Its the 12th of December, lets hope something develops around the 20th and at the latest 25th... I really hope this month isn't sunk. While this is a transition month and HIGHLY variable, I would rather not wipe away a second December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm trying to figure out why some in the 'other' regions are creaming themselves over the extended euro. That trough in the east looks like it's ready to exit stage right real fast, and when it does.... the table is set for a pretty mild time for xmas. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm trying to figure out why some in the 'other' regions are creaming themselves over the extended euro. That trough in the east looks like it's ready to exit stage right real fast, and when it does.... the table is set for a pretty mild time for xmas. . GFS longrange doesnt show it being transient... I'm thinking we have gotten the closest yet to real cold with these last few runs, we never punched through the 252 hour mark with sub freezing highs yet.... We now have cold in the 228 hour or less mark.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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