Trent Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 You can see it converges the NW lower and SW lower bands over this region... This is a decent example, but actually it worked out for Detroit as well. Ahh! I remember that bottom radar image well. That was the last MAJOR snow/LES set up for IMBY. I parked my car before work and when I came out it looked like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Lotta potential for a major overrunning event with the models but not much materializing as of yet since both the EURO and the GFS want to dampen out anything that ejects out of the western trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Dang what a gradient in the extended. Euro has like 534 dm thicknesses here with sub 480 just north of the border by late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Lotta potential for a major overrunning event with the models but not much materializing as of yet since both the EURO and the GFS want to dampen out anything that ejects out of the western trough. Yeah this goes back to my point I made earlier that you don't need a bomb to have things end up positive, the thing is it is more favorable right now for those on the East side of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Looks like the Euro's quicker/weaker/further northwest with the Friday night/Saturday system. Now the storm system after that tracks a bit further northwest as well. Gonna have to watch this. A few minor adjustments further in this direction could lead to a decent snow system for parts of the MW, including CHI/MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Yeah this goes back to my point I made earlier that you don't need a bomb to have things end up positive, the thing is it is more favorable right now for those on the East side of the region. yeah major overrunning potential...but im wondering...do you think it will be a razor-thin stripe of snow or a wider one? 12z euro verbatum is perfect but not much wiggle room lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 yeah major overrunning potential...but im wondering...do you think it will be a razor-thin stripe of snow or a wider one? 12z euro verbatum is perfect but not much wiggle room lol Hard to say at this point, I'd much rather get the first 2 systems out of the way before even looking at this (3rd system). A lot of things can and probably will change between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Hard to say at this point, I'd much rather get the first 2 systems out of the way before even looking at this (3rd system). A lot of things can and probably will change between now and then. Oh I know it will change. Just looks like an interesting setup. Its like a constant stream moisture from the gulf heading NE...parts of the south look like a lock for flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Lotta potential for a major overrunning event with the models but not much materializing as of yet since both the EURO and the GFS want to dampen out anything that ejects out of the western trough. Really odd run of the GFS at 18z. Completely different from 12z, being a lot warmer towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 One thing I would like to note, several of the GFS ensembles do have a more amplified look to them, with respect to the storm that comes out of Texas around day 4-5. Those that don't have a system ride up the front in the day 7-8 range, only the op GFS really has nothing of significant merit when compared to the ensembles. To me that would mark the prospects of changes coming in next several the op GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 You can see it converges the NW lower and SW lower bands over this region... This is a decent example, but actually it worked out for Detroit as well. Do you have other great radar shots like this? I would love to look at some more radar images from past lake effect events. Google doesn't have too many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Do you have other great radar shots like this? I would love to look at some more radar images from past lake effect events. Google doesn't have too many. Here's a couple LES events that impacted Muskegon. The vortex animation is too cool! http://severewx.atmos.uiuc.edu/index.12.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Here's a couple LES events that impacted Muskegon. The vortex animation is too cool! http://severewx.atmos.uiuc.edu/index.12.html Thanks much, Geos. I have seen these guys before. They are definitely events where I would have gone to the beach or a hike somewhere to experience the awesome power of nature. Perhaps pull some Jim Cantores as I look to the sky in amazement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 This is a pretty exceptional SSW episode...and something to get excited about: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 This episode closely resembles the SSW in January, 2003, in terms of the vortex split, the position of the features and the strength of the SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Weather extreemes might be in everyones near future..... Record warmth followed by cold, only if we could get some snow into the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 You must live in Wayne or Monroe county then... The rest of the state is blasted with LES. ALL depends on the flow direction and moisture supply especially out this way. This is a pretty exceptional SSW episode...and something to get excited about: Something HAS to give with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Weather extreemes might be in everyones near future..... Record warmth followed by cold, only if we could get some snow into the mix. I'm all for extremes. Imagine if we hit the low 50s this weekend, then get below zero late the following weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Animation of this current SSW. That's some crazy warming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Lock in the 0z GFS, a couple inches of snow Monday night into early Tuesday on the backside of a rather weak, but still present system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Animation of this current SSW. That's some crazy warming! i dont know alot about ssw, but I hear its good for a snowy, stormy wintry pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The angle of the cold sucks in the long range.... Bring back the 12Z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Lock in the 0z GFS, a couple inches of snow Monday night into early Tuesday on the backside of a rather weak, but still present system. As long as that baroclinic zone is sitting to the SE of us there is bound to be something that rides up along it giving us a few inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 i dont know alot about ssw, but I hear its good for a snowy, stormy wintry pattern! I think its good for cold. To get stormy patterns, you have to walk the tight-rope between heaven and hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I'm guessing the models don't know what to do with the SSW event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 GFS moving toward big storm after the 15th? A few days faster than I was thinking, but this pattern could push a real juicer north with the arctic/southeast ridge collision................... I asked about that a couple days ago. GFS on and off as well as the GGEM have shown a potential big storm between 16-18 but the Euro has not as of yet. 0z GFS tonight has a nice swath of 3-6" in Ohio/IN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Hour 108 has a real sleety look for the NW burbs of Chicago. As the wave develops along the front and deepens a bit, we get cold air advection into Ohio that is just strong enough to turn them into snow will areas west see a mix and rain before that cold air can really kick in. But if the wave develops a little bit earlier/stronger/farther south than this particular Op run, we could see a return to the snowy solution for Chicagoland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I asked about that a couple days ago. GFS on and off as well as the GGEM have shown a potential big storm between 16-18 but the Euro has not as of yet. 0z GFS tonight has a nice swath of 3-6" in Ohio/IN.. This is in HMs bomb potential time frame. Bring that northern energy a lil further south and stronger and then we may be talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I'm guessing the models don't know what to do with the SSW event. You're not kidding was having a discussion in a broadcast met group on FB earlier tonight and everyone's head is spinning trying to keep up with all the different solutions that come out with each run of Euro and GFS. They have changed every run today and that's been the hallmark for the past week since this started building in the strat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 i dont know alot about ssw, but I hear its good for a snowy, stormy wintry pattern! Definitely more wintry. If we can have the MJO hang around phases 6-8 and have the SE ridge hold up the storm track from scooting east too quick, then we could keep the system rolling across the subforum. This is a historic rise in the 10mb levels. The red line has broken through the black line. Green line is average. The color global map on the last page shows the warming off the chart depicted in black. Link to article > http://theweathercentre.blogspot.de/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.