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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


IWXwx

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Sounds good, QV... Buffalo NWS seems to have very informative discussions. It is nice to see some forecasts with some meteorological insight and not just "this is what the model shows"...

 

Indeed. Only one who does those kinds of great ( informative ) discussions at GRR is WDM. During the winter that is. During the summer/severe wx stuff they are all pretty decent with though.

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Nice to see NWS on board with time frames everyone has been throwing around on here.That was written by Jon Hitchcock, a former met at IWX. I've posted about it before, but IWX's loss is BUF's gain.I often read BUF'S AFD's just to read his discussions.He also knows his stuff about LES.EDIT: Wow, since the upgrade, I've had a hard time with the quotes part of replies.
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Glad to see me and Buffalo on the same wretched pattern page for here - warm and then a boring and muted nw flow chill with no snow pack..   at least we'll build some ice back before probably rinse wash and repeating this all over again for the third time come near the end of the month in to feb.

 

I sure hope that the cheap stat padding 3.4" of 0.06"  qpf fluff we got doesn't screw us out of a least snowiest winter which is 11.3"   I'm not near ready to start cheering for that and it would probably be pretty close to an impossible feat even without the cheap 3.4"  Moving in to the top 5 least snowiest winters is much more doable and would only take 20.1" to do it - but cheering for a top 5 futility winter if its not #1 is about as boring as hoping your nfl or nba team sneaks in to the playoffs to only be one and done or swept.

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12z GFS trying to spin up a rain storm for mid next week...lets see if it gets there.  E. coast high is stronger and backs the gulf flow much better.  This could be the nail in the coffin for those hoping to break the futility streak.

 

After that around 180, looks like a potential clipper. It's been awhile since we saw one of those drop out of Canada. Never thought I'd say that I kind of miss them. Probably because there usually isn't precip issues with them this far north and can surprise.

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After that around 180, looks like a potential clipper. It's been awhile since we saw one of those drop out of Canada. Never thought I'd say that I kind of miss them. Probably because there usually isn't precip issues with them this far north and can surprise.

 

Both GFS and ECMWF are consistently showing a clipper with a pretty strong arctic front pushing in later on at some point.  Those can sometimes surprise with a quick burst of 3-6" for the lake-enhanced snowbelts.  It just hasn't happened in a long time it seems.

 

It isn't looking that promising for any big pure synoptic events just yet.  Of course I remember the GHDB of 2011 was preceded by a couple weeks of cold with nothing but standard 1-3" junk.  As long as we can get the cold to lock in for a while we just have to be patient. 

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Both GFS and ECMWF are consistently showing a clipper with a pretty strong arctic front pushing in later on at some point.  Those can sometimes surprise with a quick burst of 3-6" for the lake-enhanced snowbelts.  It just hasn't happened in a long time it seems.

 

It isn't looking that promising for any big pure synoptic events just yet.  Of course I remember the GHDB of 2011 was preceded by a couple weeks of cold with nothing but standard 1-3" junk.  As long as we can get the cold to lock in for a while we just have to be patient. 

 

I'm hoping for either a clipper train or a slow progression of the cold air to the East Coast to hold up the storm track.

 

The last clipper that went through both our areas was probably the Feb. 23-24 last winter. Actually that was a Saskatchewan Screamer, but very similar to a Clipper. :)

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Unfortunately the cold that everyone is wishing for will more or less mean suppression of storms and just COLD & DRY.............

 

For the Great Lakes periods of cold suppression are normal even in the snowier years.  At least this is the case during January.  By February the sun gets stronger leading to a sharper N-S temp gradient over N. America and less suppression even during the colder periods.

 

The real screw factor so far this year has been the split-stream upper jet.  Phasing of the northern and southern branches has been occurring too far east, over the Mississippi/Ohio Valley rather than over the southern plains where we need it.  It seems almost like a continuation of the summer drought.

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You must live in Wayne or Monroe county then... The rest of the state is blasted with LES.

 

The East side of the state isn't unless the winds are NNE, or NE for the thumb. Plus most places East of US127 don't cash in on enough LES to make a huge difference.

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The East side of the state isn't unless the winds are NNE, or NE for the thumb. Plus most places East of US127 don't cash in on enough LES to make a huge difference.

 

Areas along the Irish hills and adjacent make out decently... Probably 1/4th of my yearly snowfall is LES here.

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Small area, more the exception rather than the rule.

 

Well, that's most likely why Lansing averages closer to 55 inches vs Detroit's 42.

 

LES isn't going to bury anyone east of 127, but it will ensure grass will be covered at the very least.

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Well, that's most likely why Lansing averages closer to 55 inches vs Detroit's 42.

 

LES isn't going to bury anyone east of 127, but it will ensure grass will be covered at the very least.

 

I attribute that more to Lansing being further North and away from the Lakes. Sure they may nickel and dime more but going further East than Lansing the LES snow influence drops off dramatically.

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I attribute that more to Lansing being further North and away from the Lakes. Sure they may nickel and dime more but going further East than Lansing the LES snow influence drops off dramatically.

 

No doubt....

 

There is somewhat of a redevelopment that takes place over Lapeer/Livingston/Western Washtenaw that enhances the effect... Kind of a micro effect similar to the Deep Creek lake region of Maryland, but on a MUCH smaller scale. Upslope is the word I'm searching for... It follows the elevation relief maps to a T.

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No doubt....

 

There is somewhat of a redevelopment that takes place over Lapeer/Livingston/Western Washtenaw that enhances the effect... Kind of a micro effect similar to the Deep Creek lake region of Maryland, but on a MUCH smaller scale.

 

Weak upsloping due to the Irish Hills but again this is a mesoscale influence and you really truly need a LES band to intersect the Irish Hills at a good angle to allow it to make much of a difference.

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Weak upsloping due to the Irish Hills but again this is a mesoscale influence and you really truly need a LES band to intersect the Irish Hills at a good angle to allow it to make much of a difference.

 

lake_effect_snow.gif

 

1818radar.jpg

 

You can see it converges the NW lower and SW lower bands over this region... This is a decent example, but actually it worked out for Detroit as well.

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