The_Global_Warmer Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 12z EURO kinda stunk, but I suspect it's having trouble with that SW cutoff. Yeah, gonna be some major timing differences. With the system that brings the cold back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Even though the operational models are having issues, this is the recipe for something big: I really hope the major potential doesn't go to waste. If one big wave can dig and eject over the progged baroclinic zone, the potential is through the roof for both cold/warm sectors. Models progging 12 deg C at 850mb to 15 deg C in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I really hope the major potential doesn't go to waste. If one big wave can dig and eject over the progged baroclinic zone, the potential is through the roof for both cold/warm sectors. Models progging 12 deg C at 850mb to 15 deg C in the cold sector. 12/18z GFS ensembles continue to have several monsters, although there are different timings, a slower track would allow even more moisture to build into the warm sector. If that thing eventually kicks negative, this could be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Another thing I have noticed, a lot of the ensemble members that really bomb out initiate the primary sfc low in South TX (although there a few classic Colorado Low tracks that go bigger) and allow it to take full advantage of the baroclinic zone in addition to swinging the trough negative as this is happening. Many of them cut the initial upper low off, which allows for a slower track and for the vort max that comes in behind it to phase with it and kick it negative. 00z GFS still ejecting it in pieces. That initial wave needs to dig more in the west, as Thundersnow mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Another thing I have noticed, a lot of the ensemble members that really bomb out initiate the primary sfc low in South TX (although there a few classic Colorado Low tracks that go bigger) and allow it to take full advantage of the baroclinic zone in addition to swinging the trough negative as this is happening. Many of them cut the initial upper low off, which allows for a slower track and for the vort max that comes in behind it to phase with it and kick it negative. 00z GFS still ejecting it in pieces. That initial wave needs to dig more in the west, as Thundersnow mentioned. really could do without these little backside waves that screw everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 really could do without these little backside waves that screw everything up. Yeah, those things are frustrating, I'd prefer just a simple phase...but phases are never simple. That, or for one dominant wave/vort max that can handle the load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Yeah, those things are frustrating, I'd prefer just a simple phase...but phases are never simple. I'm fine with no phase, no complications. Just one wave crawling and digging across the southwest and going nuts once it crosses the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I'm fine with no phase, no complications. Just one wave crawling and digging across the southwest and going nuts once it crosses the Rockies. Yeah, edited my post to include that option, considering that's another possible choice if these backside nuisances turn out to be less of a problem. Something like the 00z GGEM would be more promising. Some pretty strong diffluent flow aloft over the Ozarks at 144 as the trough begins to go negative with a sfc low along the KS/OK border. It then races NE and deepens fairly rapidly, with 996 mb over NW IL by 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Yeah, edited my post to include that option, considering that's another possible choice if these backside nuisances turn out to be less of a problem. Something like the 00z GGEM would be more promising. Some pretty strong diffluent flow aloft over the Ozarks at 144 as the trough begins to go negative with a sfc low along the KS/OK border. It then races NE and deepens fairly rapidly, with 996 mb over NW IL by 156. Yeah can't see the H5 plots yet but that looks like one single ULL moving over the four corners (no backside waves) and then inducing lee side cyclogenesis across eastern NM/TX PH and a cutter developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Yeah can't see the H5 plots yet but that looks like one single ULL moving over the four corners (no backside waves) and then inducing lee side cyclogenesis across eastern NM/TX PH and a cutter developing. That would be promising indeed, and at least something would develop even if it went north of us, but the GEM has been kooky as of late, so I am somewhat hesitant to give the solution much thought as a stronger outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Yeah can't see the H5 plots yet but that looks like one single ULL moving over the four corners (no backside waves) and then inducing lee side cyclogenesis across eastern NM/TX PH and a cutter developing. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=fr&mod=gemglb This site is great as it comes out with the GGEM and Ukie early and has H5 plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 That thing around the 12th is definitely worth watching for multiple reasons. There's going to be a good deal of warm/moist air just waiting to come north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 That thing around the 12th is definitely worth watching for multiple reasons. There's going to be a good deal of warm/moist air just waiting to come north... Yeah, there will likely be an unseasonably moist warm sector for this thing to use should it go for the stronger solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=fr&mod=gemglb This site is great as it comes out with the GGEM and Ukie early and has H5 plots. But H5 plots aren't out yet. I usually use that site. And why was your link in French?? But as of now I don't see this as snow event east of the Ole Miss. But models are getting into better agree of a possible winter storm west of here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 But H5 plots aren't out yet. I usually use that site. And why was your link in French?? But as of now I don't see this as snow event east of the Ole Miss. But models are getting into better agree of a possible winter storm west of here right now. English......http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Anyone else liking the 16-18 time period for a snowstorm in the OV? GFS has been showing something including a monster apps runner that the 12z showed and 0z GGEM at hour 240 as the looks of an apps runner as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 But H5 plots aren't out yet. I usually use that site. And why was your link in French?? But as of now I don't see this as snow event east of the Ole Miss. But models are getting into better agree of a possible winter storm west of here right now. The classic ones have the color shaded H5 plots along with the sfc plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 That thing around the 12th is definitely worth watching for multiple reasons. There's going to be a good deal of warm/moist air just waiting to come north... Yeah track of that first system meandering NE might have a role in amount of moisture and if that sends a cold front into/near the gulf or it just washes out. After that the trajectories are very favorable and the flood gates open for moisture to come north. If we get a stronger solution we could be dealing with both a significant severe wx event and major winter storm all in one. Big IF at this stage though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The classic ones have the color shaded H5 plots along with the sfc plots. That's my bad. I should of specified...was waiting for H5 vorticity plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Anyone else liking the 16-18 time period for a snowstorm in the OV? GFS has been showing something including a monster apps runner that the 12z showed and 0z GGEM at hour 240 as the looks of an apps runner as well. That looks like the first shot at something wintry for the area. GGEM loves its monster high pressures...1050 mb in Kansas at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Yeah track of that first system meandering NE might have a role in amount of moisture and if that sends a cold front into/near the gulf or it just washes out. After that the trajectories are very favorable and the flood gates open for moisture to come north. If we get a stronger solution we could be dealing with both a significant severe wx event and major winter storm all in one. Big IF at this stage though. I'd tend to agree that any system in this range (around the 12th) would more likely be a wet and not white east of the Mississippi, and have high end potential for both the cold and warm side of the system. But then the question becomes, can we get something afterwards that breaks the futility streak here in nern IL with a bang? The pattern seems ripe for it, before it perhaps shifts to a more suppressed pattern later in the month, especially if the PNA goes positive. I'd be surprised if we don't get an opportunity for a storm with the -EPO/-NAO/-AO/-PNA combination that looks to be setting up next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 That's my bad. I should of specified...was waiting for H5 vorticity plots. Ah, I see. Those should be out on E-Wall and/or the Meteocentre site by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 There's like a 50 degree spread in temps/dewpoints between C IA/C IL on the 00z Euro at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 There's like a 50 degree spread in temps/dewpoints between C IA/C IL on the 00z Euro at 144 hours. Talk about a potentially explosive baroclinic zone. The trough on the Euro reminds of a displaced 3/2/12 setup, just purely from the H5 progs. And the extent of the 10˚C+ H85 temps is pretty crazy for January. That said, that SE ridge would probably need to be further east to expand the moisture return longitudinally, at least on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Take your pick on the 0z ensembles, a little bit of everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Take your pick on the 0z ensembles, a little bit of everything. Several strong solutions there, a few flat and a few late developers that would end up strong as well. The strong solutions all bring at least 10c at 850mb this far North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The 6z GFS is noticably weaker with the coming arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowable Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 alrighty trying to make sense of this scenario for next weekend , Flying into MSP for 6 days to hang out with a good friend on the 12th who lives in Waconia MN, been reading some discussions and trying to understand . You all live up this way and know the weather and how it behaves. Any thoughts on next Sat? Little concerned that maybe I should reschedule flight into for Monday the 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 nothing of note on the GFS (and all ensembles) and Euro through fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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