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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


IWXwx

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Four the weekend the 30km Fim basically splits the difference between the GFS and Euro.

 

3hap_sfc_f204.png

 

 

FWIW, the GFS Ensembles in general are SE of the OP, but they have plenty of timing variances, some of them targeting the weekend, a couple as late as the following Tuesday, but just about all of them show a major storm in that timeframe.

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Have been for a while. I may be wrong on placement location but strength of system I don't think I will be wrong about. Which is why this microanalyzing of 180hr details is silly, both models have all the pieces there, they just differ on interaction.

 

 

Yeah we are on the same page. ALOT is going for it ( more with each passing day ) it is just a matter of how or when/where it all gets together.

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One thing I would note however, the MJO would favor a warmer solution especially with the MJO wave moving into phase 5.

 

Thing is that it is ( for now ) supposed to keep moving along. Thus it could be at/nearing phase 6 or even 7 by the time the storm ( assuming one of these IS the storm ) arrives. Thus something else to keep a eye on.. This is the most aggressive i have seen the models with it in a long time on THIS side of the chart..

 

To keep track of all the models with it..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml'>http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

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Thing is that it is ( for now ) supposed to keep moving along. Thus it could be at/nearing phase 6 or even 7 by the time the storm ( assuming one of these IS the storm ) arrives. Thus something else to keep a eye on.. This is the most aggressive i have seen the models with it in a long time on THIS side of the chart..

 

To keep track of all the models with it..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

Yes if it makes it to 6 or even 7 by then sure I would agree, though we are looking at 180hr range which is a lil over 7 days and most of the models have it on the edge of 5/6 and usually there is a bit of a lag time with respect to the MJO and the sensible weather for this region. If things were to evolve faster however then I could see things ending up colder. The one thing though to note is how far away from the COD the MJO wave is going to be, usually when that happens things systems tend to be more amplified compared to normal.

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Yes if it makes it to 6 or even 7 by then sure I would agree, though we are looking at 180hr range which is a lil over 7 days and most of the models have it on the edge of 5/6 and usually there is a bit of a lag time with respect to the MJO and the sensible weather for this region. If things were to evolve faster however then I could see things ending up colder. The one thing though to note is how far away from the COD the MJO wave is going to be, usually when that happens things systems tend to be more amplified compared to normal.

 

Take note of where it was when Jan 78 rolled up. :o

pd.1977.12.1.gif

 

With GHD it had just crashed and burned..

pd.2010.12.1.gif

 

With Jan 99 it had been hanging out in the COD..

pd.1998.12.1.gif

 

That Major stratospheric warming event is one such thing that can play havoc with this. That PV split is to be watched. That will shape the outcome of all of this as well. Why i suggested people wait till we are inside of day 5 before starting a storm threat thread. As we all know that warming etc is all happening now. Will take models a while to resolve all of that..

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Euro is a nightmare....so boring.  1" record is going down.

 

Thankfully I don't see the Euro being correct, there is going to be action coming forward, though we both could be on the warm side of things. So the record might live on but it wont be quiet like the Euro shows.

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Take note of where it was when Jan 78 rolled up. :o

 

 

With GHD it had just crashed and burned..

 

 

With Jan 99 it had been hanging out in the COD..

 

 

That Major stratospheric warming event is one such thing that can play havoc with this. That PV split is to be watched. That will shape the outcome of all of this as well. Why i suggested people wait till we are inside of day 5 before starting a storm threat thread. As we all know that warming etc is all happening now. Will take models a while to resolve all of that..

 

Nice analysis. Everyone knows within the last 2 winters that the MJO has crashed and burned after a brief spike into moderate-ish amplitude. What was the MJO like during the cold snap of Feb. 2007?

 

Stebo is right about the amplitude and proximity to the COD will determine the track of this storm.

We could move through phases 4 and 5 quicker also.

 

This is what the polar vortex should look like in the next 24 hours at 10mb & 100mb. We get the bigger, stronger piece on our side of the globe.

 

ecmwf10f48.gif

 

ecmwf100f48.gif

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12Z GFS still with a strong warm system around 180hr, and a second system later on that comes out as the long wave trough shifts eastward.

 

GFS is having difficulty getting the cold air into its pre-truncation time period though. I've never really been fond of how the GFS keeps the PV north of 60 N yet tries to pepper us with shots of bitter cold air. At best, with a -EPO/-NAO it sets up a gradient pattern which could produce some decent snowstorms. However, with +AO it's going to be tough to get prolonged periods of bitter cold to verify. At least not until that period towards February when QVectorman has been intimating some of that SSW stuffs kicks into effect.  

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Yeah, that's what needs to happen. GFS the last little while was trying to plunge us into the freezer while its own AO progs were positive. Looks like towards the 20th is the better bet. 

 

A definite step down to seasonable air is definitely in the cards before the freezer door is opened though. Should be a good period for storms, before things probably go cold and dry. Maybe we can get some Clipper's during the coldest periods. Get some high ratio snow to help make up for December.

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