Harry Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Uh...12z yesterday? Friday 12z? Thats not really much of a bomb till it is well up in Canada? Assuming that is the running you are talking about? Gets kinda confusing with one after another.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Four the weekend the 30km Fim basically splits the difference between the GFS and Euro. FWIW, the GFS Ensembles in general are SE of the OP, but they have plenty of timing variances, some of them targeting the weekend, a couple as late as the following Tuesday, but just about all of them show a major storm in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Friday 12z? Thats not really much of a bomb till it is well up in Canada? Assuming that is the running you are talking about? Gets kinda confusing with one after another.. No, Thursday 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I agree it can get confusing with storms this close together, maybe after tomorrow mornings runs if need be we should split them up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Have been for a while. I may be wrong on placement location but strength of system I don't think I will be wrong about. Which is why this microanalyzing of 180hr details is silly, both models have all the pieces there, they just differ on interaction. Yeah we are on the same page. ALOT is going for it ( more with each passing day ) it is just a matter of how or when/where it all gets together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 No, Thursday 12z. Ahhh.. Ok.. Gonna be a fun week with modeling. That we DO know. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I agree it can get confusing with storms this close together, maybe after tomorrow mornings runs if need be we should split them up. I would wait till we atleast get inside of day 5 before starting a storm threat thread. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 One thing I would note however, the MJO would favor a warmer solution especially with the MJO wave moving into phase 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I would wait till we atleast get inside of day 5 before starting a storm threat thread. JMHO Amen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I would wait till we atleast get inside of day 5 before starting a storm threat thread. JMHO Yes, I agree at least get it to 120 hrs before making a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 One thing does seem to be certain, many area's of this sub forum will get some precip, those that get the liquid form will have at least some help with the hydrological drought as run off should get into the local streams and rivers, may not help much with the agricultural drought, but hey anything helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 One thing I would note however, the MJO would favor a warmer solution especially with the MJO wave moving into phase 5. Thing is that it is ( for now ) supposed to keep moving along. Thus it could be at/nearing phase 6 or even 7 by the time the storm ( assuming one of these IS the storm ) arrives. Thus something else to keep a eye on.. This is the most aggressive i have seen the models with it in a long time on THIS side of the chart.. To keep track of all the models with it.. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml'>http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Thing is that it is ( for now ) supposed to keep moving along. Thus it could be at/nearing phase 6 or even 7 by the time the storm ( assuming one of these IS the storm ) arrives. Thus something else to keep a eye on.. This is the most aggressive i have seen the models with it in a long time on THIS side of the chart.. To keep track of all the models with it.. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Yes if it makes it to 6 or even 7 by then sure I would agree, though we are looking at 180hr range which is a lil over 7 days and most of the models have it on the edge of 5/6 and usually there is a bit of a lag time with respect to the MJO and the sensible weather for this region. If things were to evolve faster however then I could see things ending up colder. The one thing though to note is how far away from the COD the MJO wave is going to be, usually when that happens things systems tend to be more amplified compared to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Yes if it makes it to 6 or even 7 by then sure I would agree, though we are looking at 180hr range which is a lil over 7 days and most of the models have it on the edge of 5/6 and usually there is a bit of a lag time with respect to the MJO and the sensible weather for this region. If things were to evolve faster however then I could see things ending up colder. The one thing though to note is how far away from the COD the MJO wave is going to be, usually when that happens things systems tend to be more amplified compared to normal. Take note of where it was when Jan 78 rolled up. With GHD it had just crashed and burned.. With Jan 99 it had been hanging out in the COD.. That Major stratospheric warming event is one such thing that can play havoc with this. That PV split is to be watched. That will shape the outcome of all of this as well. Why i suggested people wait till we are inside of day 5 before starting a storm threat thread. As we all know that warming etc is all happening now. Will take models a while to resolve all of that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 06z GFS really warms up then slams cold door on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Euro is a nightmare....so boring. 1" record is going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Pattern of the GFS is very simillar to the one of mid-late Dec with the placement of storms..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Euro is a nightmare....so boring. 1" record is going down. Thankfully I don't see the Euro being correct, there is going to be action coming forward, though we both could be on the warm side of things. So the record might live on but it wont be quiet like the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Hour 192 looks like a slightly northern version of Dec 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 12Z GFS still with a strong warm system around 180hr, and a second system later on that comes out as the long wave trough shifts eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Take note of where it was when Jan 78 rolled up. With GHD it had just crashed and burned.. With Jan 99 it had been hanging out in the COD.. That Major stratospheric warming event is one such thing that can play havoc with this. That PV split is to be watched. That will shape the outcome of all of this as well. Why i suggested people wait till we are inside of day 5 before starting a storm threat thread. As we all know that warming etc is all happening now. Will take models a while to resolve all of that.. Nice analysis. Everyone knows within the last 2 winters that the MJO has crashed and burned after a brief spike into moderate-ish amplitude. What was the MJO like during the cold snap of Feb. 2007? Stebo is right about the amplitude and proximity to the COD will determine the track of this storm. We could move through phases 4 and 5 quicker also. This is what the polar vortex should look like in the next 24 hours at 10mb & 100mb. We get the bigger, stronger piece on our side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 12Z GFS still with a strong warm system around 180hr, and a second system later on that comes out as the long wave trough shifts eastward. GFS is having difficulty getting the cold air into its pre-truncation time period though. I've never really been fond of how the GFS keeps the PV north of 60 N yet tries to pepper us with shots of bitter cold air. At best, with a -EPO/-NAO it sets up a gradient pattern which could produce some decent snowstorms. However, with +AO it's going to be tough to get prolonged periods of bitter cold to verify. At least not until that period towards February when QVectorman has been intimating some of that SSW stuffs kicks into effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 SSC - check out the new AO forecast! It's heading into the tank! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 A couple notable changes on the 12z Euro. First, the cutoff low is considerably slower than previous runs. Second, the model has suddenly added a strong short wave moving across southern Canada later in the week that squashes the mild southeastern ridge somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 SSC - check out the new AO forecast! It's heading into the tank! Yeah, that's what needs to happen. GFS the last little while was trying to plunge us into the freezer while its own AO progs were positive. Looks like towards the 20th is the better bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 12z EURO crushes Alek's futility weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 12z EURO crushes Alek's futility weenie. Mostly rain ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Mostly rain ftw. Futility and Falcons knocked out in the same weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Futility and Falcons knocked out in the same weekend. Packers knocked out and snowpack melting in the same week looks more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Yeah, that's what needs to happen. GFS the last little while was trying to plunge us into the freezer while its own AO progs were positive. Looks like towards the 20th is the better bet. A definite step down to seasonable air is definitely in the cards before the freezer door is opened though. Should be a good period for storms, before things probably go cold and dry. Maybe we can get some Clipper's during the coldest periods. Get some high ratio snow to help make up for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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