Minnesota Meso Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Its kinda funny, in order for you to get a monster storm.... 90% of the subforum gets screwed. Not that I blame you, its just the way it is. This storm would even bring rain to the entire UP of Michigan. Of course you are correct sir (?), but my reaction would have been the same, if it bombed out over say Toledo, after all that would match my winter forecast. Having said that, it wouldn't surprise if the other models show such a monster that it be further east than our beloved GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I think the GFS is being a little too bullish on the cold air and too fast. Based on GWO and strat. analogs I'm guessing the coldest core of the 850 temps behind the short waves for the Jan 12-19 time frame will remain warmer than -15C then be reinforced with a coldest core of -15 to -25C for Jan 21-25 with a core of cold in the -25 to -30C range possibly as cold as -36C at some point for Jan 25-30. With -33C sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE. Of course the cores of the coldest air will probably remain north of the border but still one can extrapolate what kind of 850 temps would be making down to the central US with those types of 850 temps just north of border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I think the GFS is hinting at what could be something major if everything were to go right, depending on if system(s) cut off then get picked up by these northern stream waves coming into the pac NW then phase and go bonkers like the 0z run. This is obviously the period to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I think the GFS is being a little too bullish on the cold air and too fast. Based on GWO and strat. analogs I'm guessing the coldest core of the 850 temps behind the short waves for the Jan 12-19 time frame will remain warmer than -15C then be reinforced with a coldest core of -15 to -25C for Jan 21-25 with a core of cold in the -25 to -30C range possibly as cold as -36C at some point for Jan 25-30. With -33C sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE. Of course the cores of the coldest air will probably remain north of the border but still one can extrapolate what kind of 850 temps would be making down to the central US with those types of 850 temps just north of border. Getting -30C south of the border would be nothing to sneeze at. I can't remember it happening very much if at all in the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Getting -30C south of the border would be nothing to sneeze at. I can't remember it happening very much if at all in the past few years. Probably happened during Feb. 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Its kinda funny, in order for you to get a monster storm.... 90% of the subforum gets screwed. Not that I blame you, its just the way it is. This storm would even bring rain to the entire UP of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Getting -30C south of the border would be nothing to sneeze at. I can't remember it happening very much if at all in the past few years. I know! I thought this through and reviewed the data several times before I posted this haha. I'm always conservative but the data too me appears there is a good chance. But we had -23C the other day in northern Maine. And the 1/3 18z run of GFS had -30C 850 temps just north of the border. So its not impossible to achieve. Plus, I can't really pin point where the cold core would be, unfortunately data only suggests some where east of the Mississippi to the Atlantic so it may only clip northern Maine...who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 To give an idea of the insanity on the 00z GFS, it has 140 kts at 216 hrs in that H5 jet streak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 One of those, 'If only it was March-May' type systems on the GFS. Still would be interesting to see how this active period plays out, someone is going to be a big winner in the forum with the system that comes out in the 180hr time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 GEM has finally caved. This round goes to King Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 GEM has finally caved. This round goes to King Euro. You mean the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 That's a weird GGEM solution. Looks like the cutoff phases with the northern jet over the GL's. I was thinking it scoot off to the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Euro looked good until 192 when it strung it out severely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 One of those, 'If only it was March-May' type systems on the GFS. Still would be interesting to see how this active period plays out, someone is going to be a big winner in the forum with the system that comes out in the 180hr time frame. Assuming it hangs on. 00z euro kinda just went LOL at the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 For the weekend storm the Euro has followed the lead of the GFS, although not nearly as amplified and a bit further east of the GFS say near Milwaukee, it is also more progressive than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Assuming it hangs on. 00z euro kinda just went LOL at the GFS. The Euro's evolution was the same until 192 then it decided to play the cutoff game, which shouldn't happen as there is another piece of energy cresting the ridge at the same time. In other words the Euro has the evolution wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 For the weekend storm the Euro has followed the lead of the GFS, although not nearly as amplified and a bit further east of the GFS say near Milwaukee, it is also more progressive than the GFS. If you're speaking of the storm for late next week, you're wrong. It's the other way around...The ECMWF has had that one locked down for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 The Euro's evolution was the same until 192 then it decided to play the cutoff game, which shouldn't happen as there is another piece of energy cresting the ridge at the same time. In other words the Euro has the evolution wrong. Not really. Look at the 500mb maps from about 156hrs onward and compare them. GFS for one has a MUCH stronger system plowing through the west/sw part of the country and that also helps to really raise the heights to the east in the Plains etc. If you're speaking of the storm for late next week, you're wrong. It's the other way around...The ECMWF has had that one locked down for days. Indeed it has. Been thinking it is gonna show the bomb but has not done so YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Indeed it has. Been thinking it is gonna show the bomb but has not done so YET. Uh...12z yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 The Euro's evolution was the same until 192 then it decided to play the cutoff game, which shouldn't happen as there is another piece of energy cresting the ridge at the same time. In other words the Euro has the evolution wrong. Not really. Look at the 500mb maps from about 156hrs onward and compare them. GFS for one has a MUCH stronger system plowing through the west/sw part of the country and that also helps to really raise the heights to the east in the Plains etc. And to add to this, the ECMWF does make sense. If a decent -PNA sets in as some guidance shows, that mean trough will sit in the west for a bit...And that's exactly what the ECMWF shows. One wave dives down the backside of the trough, while the initial one in the SW is kicked out. It happens a few times at the end of that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 If you're speaking of the storm for late next week, you're wrong. It's the other way around...The ECMWF has had that one locked down for days. With all due respect, the 04/12z Euro showed a surface high over MN of 1020mb at 0z Sun. The 05/0z has a 1000mb low setting up near the UP of MI at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Not really. Look at the 500mb maps from about 156hrs onward and compare them. GFS for one has a MUCH stronger system plowing through the west/sw part of the country and that also helps to really raise the heights to the east in the Plains etc. Indeed it has. Been thinking it is gonna show the bomb but has not done so YET. Actually they are very similar except the Euro dives the energy down the back side of the trough yet the front side of the trough weakens dramatically, when you have that amount of energy being forced into a trough it isn't going to come out all weak and in pieces especially with another system hot on its heels. At 156hr there is no reason for the Euro to crush the first system yet it does, and then from there the evolution is completely out of whack, it tries to dive the 2nd piece SW and cut off but then it all of sudden is shunted East. I just don't see things playing out like that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 With all due respect, the 04/12z Euro showed a surface high over MN of 1020mb at 0z Sun. The 05/0z has a 1000mb low setting up near the UP of MI at the same time. I just checked and we're not even talking about the same system. What you're talking about has to do with the following trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Actually they are very similar except the Euro dives the energy down the back side of the trough yet the front side of the trough weakens dramatically, when you have that amount of energy being forced into a trough it isn't going to come out all weak and in pieces especially with another system hot on its heels. As said though the euro does not show near the amount of energy the GFS does as it dives down on the backside of the trough. That thing is a powerhouse on the GFS as it dives down the westcoast. The GFS also digs it alot further then the euro does. Also keep in mind at what the euro does with the system ahead of it. At 150hrs the euro still has the lead system over top the northern end of Lake MI while the GFS basically fades it as it heads off the MA coast which allows for better amplification ( More ridging ahead of it ) ahead of what becomes the big storm on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I just checked and we're not even talking about the same system. What you're talking about has to do with the following trough. Ok just a misunderstanding, I thought I made it clear that I was talking about the weekend storm, my bad, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Actually they are very similar except the Euro dives the energy down the back side of the trough yet the front side of the trough weakens dramatically, when you have that amount of energy being forced into a trough it isn't going to come out all weak and in pieces especially with another system hot on its heels. At 156hr there is no reason for the Euro to crush the first system yet it does, and then from there the evolution is completely out of whack, it tries to dive the 2nd piece SW and cut off but then it all of sudden is shunted East. I just don't see things playing out like that at all. So I take it from your posts you're pretty confident about a big storm somewhere in the region for the 12th-15th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 During time of change i would not get too caught up in any modeled storm threat beyond day 5.. The MJO just woke back up not long ago and we have a ongoing major strato warming event which will take the models a little while to fully grasp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Ok just a misunderstanding, I thought I made it clear that I was talking about the weekend storm, my bad, sorry. By weekend I didn't know if you meant late week or actually next weekend. My bad too. Now that i know which one it is, the 12z ECMWF actually did have it, but it was weaker and 12hrs faster. It all hinges on the evolution of the trough, which greatly differs from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 So I take it from your posts you're pretty confident about a big storm somewhere in the region for the 12th-15th period. Have been for a while. I may be wrong on placement location but strength of system I don't think I will be wrong about. Which is why this microanalyzing of 180hr details is silly, both models have all the pieces there, they just differ on interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Four the weekend the 30km Fim basically splits the difference between the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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