SpartyOn Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 My keboard got frosty and the CPU froze when looking at the long range GFS. Brrrrr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 12Z GFS continues the cold 'round these parts. Looking much better beyond 1/9 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I'm all for extremes so let's do it right. The lamest would be if we verify with 850 mb temps of like -16C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 Izzi MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE ADVERTISE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN BEYOND DAY 7 WITH GFS/ECMWF/FIM ALL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH MID/END OF NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN QUITE TYPICAL OF ONE PRODUCES 50F+ TEMPS HERE THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THE RATE THINGS ARE GOING CHANCES LOOK HIGHER THAN WE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CWA BEFORE WE SEE OUR FIRST INCH OF SNOW OFFICIALLY IN CHICAGO! WHO WOULD HAVE GUESSED THAT CHICAGO WOULD HAVE A LESS SNOWY AND WARMER FIRST HALF OF WINTER THIS YEAR THAN LAST YEAR`S EXCUSE FOR A WINTER... lol, even the mets are frustrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Izzilol, even the mets are frustrated. Izzi is on the dark side, he has been rooting on the futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 12z GEFS...not boring. January 10th 2m departures. January 14th 2m departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 you have to imagine there is some fireworks potential between the two halves of this month...wonder if we can sneak through another active period unscathed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 you have to imagine there is some fireworks potential between the two halves of this month...wonder if we can sneak through another active period unscathed I'm thinking the second half holds promise...or beyond the torch. If ORD completely misses out again...well, it obviously wasn't meant to be this winter I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Last winter sucked nads for everyone, but the prior winter was blockbuster in Chicago if my memory serves me correct? Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Last winter sucked nads for everyone, but the prior winter was blockbuster in Chicago if my memory serves me correct? Jon ORD had at least 50" for 2007-08 through 2010-11. First time in recorded history for Chicago...four consecutive seasons of 50"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I'm thinking the second half holds promise...or beyond the torch. If ORD completely misses out again...well, it obviously wasn't meant to be this winter I guess. I'm not a long range guys but if the recent patterns hold I'd guess we'll have 2 maybe 3 more 10-14 day windows for snow before climo becomes unfavorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I'm not a long range guys but if the recent patterns hold I'd guess we'll have 2 maybe 3 more 10-14 day windows for snow before climo becomes unfavorable. Average temp starts increasing again by the end of Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I'm not a long range guys but if the recent patterns hold I'd guess we'll have 2 maybe 3 more 10-14 day windows for snow before climo becomes unfavorable. I don't think that idea is outlandish. I think the pattern after this torch, as modeled, is the best we've seen in awhile. How long it lasts and does it actually verify, who knows? We all know how that can go. Futility be damned, I'd still like to see you guys get into some action. As well as you do I'm sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I don't think that idea is outlandish. I think the pattern after this torch, as modeled, is the best we've seen in awhile. How long it lasts and does it actually verify, who knows? We all know how that can go. Futility be damned, I'd still like to see you guys get into some action. As well as you do I'm sure... The torch was just as apparent on the long range as this cool down.... It was visible on the models 300 hours out at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Average temp starts increasing again by the end of Jan Jan 15th is probably the coldest date of the year.... So, this is true. I really like a good start to December, it makes winter seem longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I'm not a long range guys but if the recent patterns hold I'd guess we'll have 2 maybe 3 more 10-14 day windows for snow before climo becomes unfavorable. Ha. Well there is always next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Just for fun, emphasis for fun, but the 8-14 day CPC outlook has 1/30/1982 at the top of the analog list. STL's favorite blizzard/snowstorm no doubt. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=01_31_82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I don't think that idea is outlandish. I think the pattern after this torch, as modeled, is the best we've seen in awhile. How long it lasts and does it actually verify, who knows? We all know how that can go. Futility be damned, I'd still like to see you guys get into some action. As well as you do I'm sure... Your not kidding. As much as I enjoy shattering records, this is getting a bit ridiculous.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 The next week to 10 days will certainly be quiet, boring and mild across much of the subforum...however I think we will see quite a fruitful pattern shaping up around mid-month: Convection continues to be focused west of the dateline and in the Indian Ocean along the equator...which as we whittnessed in the latter portions of fall and December supports a strong Asian-Pacific jet breaking over the central Pacific, supporting lower than normal heights and stormier conditions over the NW Pacific and higher heights into Alaska...this should begin dislodging the transient G.O.A. low that will be present over the next several days and allow cooler air to begin building over western Canada and the NW US next week. There is also strong agreement between the past few days worth of ECM/GFS runs in a stratospheric vortex split all the way up past 10mb...note how yesterday's ECM completely changes the stratospheric regime in the polar regions from day 1 to day 10: Day 1 forecast (valid today): Day 10 forecast (valid next Friday): The GFS plots also show this well: This suggests the potential for the AO and potentially NAO to go severely negative during the second half of January...with the GFS ensembles already showing a downward trend in the AO in the latter portions of the forecast period (however, spread is quite high by that point): The Euro ensembles are showing our potentially fruitful pattern beginning to unfold by day 10 with ridging into Alaska, a falling AO/displacing PV over Canada and troughing deepening over the central US. Given a good chunk of data is pointing towards a significant cool down mid month over the central US (with the eastern US likely cooling down towards the end of January as cutters help pop a -NAO) I think we may see an evolution similar to December across our sub-forum for the second half of January with cold oozing south with a few storm chances, that gradually shift south/east with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Your not kidding. As much as I enjoy shattering records, this is getting a bit ridiculous.... I have mixed feelings. I want some snow for the Chicago crew...OTOH I'd like to see ORD wiggle out again. Sadistic I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 The next week to 10 days will certainly be quiet, boring and mild across much of the subforum...however I think we will see quite a fruitful pattern shaping up around mid-month: am_ir_monthly_60E_1.gif Convection continues to be focused west of the dateline and in the Indian Ocean along the equator...which as we whittnessed in the latter portions of fall and December supports a strong Asian-Pacific jet breaking over the central Pacific, supporting lower than normal heights and stormier conditions over the NW Pacific and higher heights into Alaska...this should begin dislodging the transient G.O.A. low that will be present over the next several days and allow cooler air to begin building over western Canada and the NW US next week. There is also strong agreement between the past few days worth of ECM/GFS runs in a stratospheric vortex split all the way up past 10mb...note how yesterday's ECM completely changes the stratospheric regime in the polar regions from day 1 to day 10: Day 1 forecast (valid today): ECM day 1.gif Day 10 forecast (valid next Friday): ECM day 10.gif The GFS plots also show this well: GFS day 10.gif This suggests the potential for the AO and potentially NAO to go severely negative during the second half of January...with the GFS ensembles already showing a downward trend in the AO in the latter portions of the forecast period (however, spread is quite high by that point): AO GEFS.gif The Euro ensembles are showing our potentially fruitful pattern beginning to unfold by day 10 with ridging into Alaska, a falling AO/displacing PV over Canada and troughing deepening over the central US. Given a good chunk of data is pointing towards a significant cool down mid month over the central US (with the eastern US likely cooling down towards the end of January as cutters help pop a -NAO) I think we may see an evolution similar to December across our sub-forum for the second half of January with cold oozing south with a few storm chances, that gradually shift south/east with time. ECM ENS 240.gif It certainly looks like a similar pattern to our pre and slightly post Christmas pattern with a solid storm track through the middle of the country and enough of a SE ridge to promote cutters beyond the next week to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 SSW event over Asia is really going to town! Edit: 18z GFS not nearly as warm for the 10th. Actually has a storm cutting up this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 We always seem to have a lot of snow around and cold around my birthday (Jan 13). This year would be the same if some of these long range models pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 The GFS seems to be holding its ground. Hopefully the Euro weeklies bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 SSW event over Asia is really going to town! Edit: 18z GFS not nearly as warm for the 10th. Actually has a storm cutting up this direction. Add the 50mb warming we are also seeing.. wonder what all this will bring. My best guess if we get good phasing at H5 with the storm forecast around the 11th, it could unleash the cold hounds, if not it could lock the cold up into Canada Today's model suite would suggest phasing will not occur. This whole pattern bears watching very closely IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Last winter sucked nads for everyone, but the prior winter was blockbuster in Chicago if my memory serves me correct? Jon Winter 2010-11 as a whole wasnt as blockbuster in Chicago as it was in Detroit, but they had the massive hit from GHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Winter 2010-11 as a whole wasnt as blockbuster in Chicago as it was in Detroit, but they had the massive hit from GHD. FWIW at this time in 2011 we had a whopping 5.7" total on the year at this point. It can change fast even for Chi-town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Add the 50mb warming we are also seeing.. wonder what all this will bring. My best guess if we get good phasing at H5 with the storm forecast around the 11th, it could unleash the cold hounds, if not it could lock the cold up into Canada Today's model suite would suggest phasing will not occur. This whole pattern bears watching very closely IMO. It's not far off though. If the system is a little slower and the Arctic air is coming down at the same time it could be real interesting. (Or if the Arctic air comes eariler) I would definitely think you'll get some snow in this pattern shift. There was mention of a third SSW event in the GFS long range today! http://theweathercentre.blogspot.de/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 FWIW at this time in 2011 we had a whopping 5.7" total on the year at this point. It can change fast even for Chi-town. DTW's season-to-date total on Jan 2, 2011 was 9.3". 60 inches later.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 I have been looking at the SSW maps posted here.... Can someone explain what that is? All I see are warmer temps, and just want to understand what that is all about, and what it's potential implications are, for our winter weather. More active? Warmer? Colder? More precip? Just kind of confuses me, that's all. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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