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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


IWXwx

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Izzi

 

 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS

CONTINUE ADVERTISE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN BEYOND DAY 7 WITH

GFS/ECMWF/FIM ALL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS

CONTINUE THROUGH MID/END OF NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN QUITE

TYPICAL OF ONE PRODUCES 50F+ TEMPS HERE THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THE

RATE THINGS ARE GOING CHANCES LOOK HIGHER THAN WE COULD SEE

THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CWA BEFORE WE SEE OUR FIRST INCH OF SNOW

OFFICIALLY IN CHICAGO! WHO WOULD HAVE GUESSED THAT CHICAGO WOULD

HAVE A LESS SNOWY AND WARMER FIRST HALF OF WINTER THIS YEAR THAN

LAST YEAR`S EXCUSE FOR A WINTER...

 

 

lol, even the mets are frustrated.

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you have to imagine there is some fireworks potential between the two halves of this month...wonder if we can sneak through another active period unscathed

 

I'm thinking the second half holds promise...or beyond the torch. If ORD completely misses out again...well, it obviously wasn't meant to be this winter I guess.  

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Last winter sucked nads for everyone, but the prior winter was blockbuster in Chicago if my memory serves me correct? Jon

 

ORD had at least 50" for 2007-08 through 2010-11. First time in recorded history for Chicago...four consecutive seasons of 50"+. 

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I'm thinking the second half holds promise...or beyond the torch. If ORD completely misses out again...well, it obviously wasn't meant to be this winter I guess.  

 

I'm not a long range guys but if the recent patterns hold I'd guess we'll have 2 maybe 3 more 10-14 day windows for snow before climo becomes unfavorable.

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I'm not a long range guys but if the recent patterns hold I'd guess we'll have 2 maybe 3 more 10-14 day windows for snow before climo becomes unfavorable.

 

I don't think that idea is outlandish. I think the pattern after this torch, as modeled, is the best we've seen in awhile. How long it lasts and does it actually verify, who knows? We all know how that can go. Futility be damned, I'd still like to see you guys get into some action. As well as you do I'm sure...

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I don't think that idea is outlandish. I think the pattern after this torch, as modeled, is the best we've seen in awhile. How long it lasts and does it actually verify, who knows? We all know how that can go. Futility be damned, I'd still like to see you guys get into some action. As well as you do I'm sure...

 

 

The torch was just as apparent on the long range as this cool down.... It was visible on the models 300 hours out at one point.

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I don't think that idea is outlandish. I think the pattern after this torch, as modeled, is the best we've seen in awhile. How long it lasts and does it actually verify, who knows? We all know how that can go. Futility be damned, I'd still like to see you guys get into some action. As well as you do I'm sure...

 

Your not kidding. As much as I enjoy shattering records, this is getting a bit ridiculous....

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The next week to 10 days will certainly be quiet, boring and mild across much of the subforum...however I think we will see quite a fruitful pattern shaping up around mid-month:

 

post-525-0-59527200-1357161044_thumb.gif

 

Convection continues to be focused west of the dateline and in the Indian Ocean along the equator...which as we whittnessed in the latter portions of fall and December supports a strong Asian-Pacific jet breaking over the central Pacific, supporting lower than normal heights and stormier conditions over the NW Pacific and higher heights into Alaska...this should begin dislodging the transient G.O.A. low that will be present over the next several days and allow cooler air to begin building over western Canada and the NW US next week.

 

There is also strong agreement between the past few days worth of ECM/GFS runs in a stratospheric vortex split all the way up past 10mb...note how yesterday's ECM completely changes the stratospheric regime in the polar regions from day 1 to day 10:

 

Day 1 forecast (valid today):

 

post-525-0-18501300-1357161422_thumb.gif

 

Day 10 forecast (valid next Friday):

 

post-525-0-25020900-1357161474_thumb.gif

 

The GFS plots also show this well:

 

post-525-0-40492800-1357161546_thumb.gif

 

This suggests the potential for the AO and potentially NAO to go severely negative during the second half of January...with the GFS ensembles already showing a downward trend in the AO in the latter portions of the forecast period (however, spread is quite high by that point):

 

post-525-0-59704700-1357161653_thumb.gif

 

The Euro ensembles are showing our potentially fruitful pattern beginning to unfold by day 10 with ridging into Alaska, a falling AO/displacing PV over Canada and troughing deepening over the central US. Given a good chunk of data is pointing towards a significant cool down mid month over the central US (with the eastern US likely cooling down towards the end of January as cutters help pop a -NAO) I think we may see an evolution similar to December across our sub-forum for the second half of January with cold oozing south with a few storm chances, that gradually shift south/east with time.

 

post-525-0-65308000-1357161810_thumb.gif

 

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The next week to 10 days will certainly be quiet, boring and mild across much of the subforum...however I think we will see quite a fruitful pattern shaping up around mid-month:

 

attachicon.gifam_ir_monthly_60E_1.gif

 

Convection continues to be focused west of the dateline and in the Indian Ocean along the equator...which as we whittnessed in the latter portions of fall and December supports a strong Asian-Pacific jet breaking over the central Pacific, supporting lower than normal heights and stormier conditions over the NW Pacific and higher heights into Alaska...this should begin dislodging the transient G.O.A. low that will be present over the next several days and allow cooler air to begin building over western Canada and the NW US next week.

 

There is also strong agreement between the past few days worth of ECM/GFS runs in a stratospheric vortex split all the way up past 10mb...note how yesterday's ECM completely changes the stratospheric regime in the polar regions from day 1 to day 10:

 

Day 1 forecast (valid today):

 

attachicon.gifECM day 1.gif

 

Day 10 forecast (valid next Friday):

 

attachicon.gifECM day 10.gif

 

The GFS plots also show this well:

 

attachicon.gifGFS day 10.gif

 

This suggests the potential for the AO and potentially NAO to go severely negative during the second half of January...with the GFS ensembles already showing a downward trend in the AO in the latter portions of the forecast period (however, spread is quite high by that point):

 

attachicon.gifAO GEFS.gif

 

The Euro ensembles are showing our potentially fruitful pattern beginning to unfold by day 10 with ridging into Alaska, a falling AO/displacing PV over Canada and troughing deepening over the central US. Given a good chunk of data is pointing towards a significant cool down mid month over the central US (with the eastern US likely cooling down towards the end of January as cutters help pop a -NAO) I think we may see an evolution similar to December across our sub-forum for the second half of January with cold oozing south with a few storm chances, that gradually shift south/east with time.

 

attachicon.gifECM ENS 240.gif

 

 

It certainly looks like a similar pattern to our pre and slightly post Christmas pattern with a solid storm track through the middle of the country and enough of a SE ridge to promote cutters beyond the next week to 10 days.

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SSW event over Asia is really going to town!

 

temp10anim.gif

 

 

Edit: 18z GFS not nearly as warm for the 10th. Actually has a storm cutting up this direction.

 

Add the 50mb warming we are also seeing.. wonder what all this will bring.  My best guess if we get good phasing at H5 with the storm forecast around the 11th, it could unleash the cold hounds, if not it could lock the cold up into Canada   Today's model suite would suggest phasing will not occur.  This whole pattern bears watching very closely IMO.

 

temp50anim.gif

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Add the 50mb warming we are also seeing.. wonder what all this will bring.  My best guess if we get good phasing at H5 with the storm forecast around the 11th, it could unleash the cold hounds, if not it could lock the cold up into Canada   Today's model suite would suggest phasing will not occur.  This whole pattern bears watching very closely IMO.

 

It's not far off though. If the system is a little slower and the Arctic air is coming down at the same time it could be real interesting. (Or if the Arctic air comes eariler)

I would definitely think you'll get some snow in this pattern shift.

 

There was mention of a third SSW event in the GFS long range today!

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.de/

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I have been looking at the SSW maps posted here....

 

Can someone explain what that is?  All I see are warmer temps, and just want to understand what that is all about, and what it's potential implications are, for our winter weather.  More active? Warmer? Colder? More precip?  Just kind of confuses me, that's all.   Thanks. 

 

 

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