buckeye Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 OH God....here we gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. JB quote taken from another thread: "This pattern is going coast to coast and I think we have wild ride through the holidays for the entire nation. The latest CFSV2 snow chart for around Christmas is not shy about what its asking for much of the nation. This pattern has gobs of potential for all the US" "For the nation as a whole, it is unlikely that you or I will ever see this kind of set up around the time of the holidays again, where almost everyone north of I 20 has a shot, and the center from west to east is along I 70. I will be darn if being a few days late ( if its snowing already in the northeast next week at this time, are you really going to be upset) is going to get me to back away. I may be wrong, but quite literally that is not what the modeling is saying at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 OH God....here we gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. JB quote taken from another thread: "This pattern is going coast to coast and I think we have wild ride through the holidays for the entire nation. The latest CFSV2 snow chart for around Christmas is not shy about what its asking for much of the nation. This pattern has gobs of potential for all the US" "For the nation as a whole, it is unlikely that you or I will ever see this kind of set up around the time of the holidays again, where almost everyone north of I 20 has a shot, and the center from west to east is along I 70. I will be darn if being a few days late ( if its snowing already in the northeast next week at this time, are you really going to be upset) is going to get me to back away. I may be wrong, but quite literally that is not what the modeling is saying at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 OH God....here we gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. JB quote taken from another thread: "This pattern is going coast to coast and I think we have wild ride through the holidays for the entire nation. The latest CFSV2 snow chart for around Christmas is not shy about what its asking for much of the nation. This pattern has gobs of potential for all the US" "For the nation as a whole, it is unlikely that you or I will ever see this kind of set up around the time of the holidays again, where almost everyone north of I 20 has a shot, and the center from west to east is along I 70. I will be darn if being a few days late ( if its snowing already in the northeast next week at this time, are you really going to be upset) is going to get me to back away. I may be wrong, but quite literally that is not what the modeling is saying at all. Until my high temps stay in the mid 20's... It ain't no cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I lost my link to the ECMWF predicted Stratosphere Temps (anybody have one?) but if the GFS is any indication I have some hope for a couple weeks down the road. Not much hope, but hopefully the stratosphere can be the one thing that quite literally rotates 180 degrees around the north pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 if it's raining on xmas day and in the 40's.... this WILL be sig-worthy material! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 if it's raining on xmas day and in the 40's.... this WILL be sig-worthy material! Not to drag the thread way OT but that I-70 sentence triggered a memory. I know you'll know what I'm talking about. What storm was it where JB was calling for a life threatening blizzard that would shut down I-70 in IN/OH? I wanna say it was about 5 or 6 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 18z GFS looks to be caving to the Euro a bit in terms of the strength of these two possible systems around the 96-132 hr mark and then the 156-truncation period, although there are some strange looking things, especially with the second system. Talk about poor run to run consistency... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Not to drag the thread way OT but that I-70 sentence triggered a memory. I know you'll know what I'm talking about. What storm was it where JB was calling for a life threatening blizzard that would shut down I-70 in IN/OH? I wanna say it was about 5 or 6 years ago. I would bet it was 6 or 7 yrs ago as well. I recall it very well because his prediction came out of the blue, out of nowhere. I came home from an afternoon appt and sure enough, there was an updated column from him stating exactly what you said. I'm not even sure if there was a model showing it. It was a friday and he was calling for it to occur over the weekend if I remember correctly.... At first I thought it was a test blog that wasn't suppose to get published, (think Reagan's "we begin bombing in 5 mins. speech)...lol. ....of course nothing happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Those maps are lol worthy. As much as the CFS weeklies/monthlies usually are on a day to day basis. For fun, here's today's CFS weeklies through the end of Dec/beginning of Jan. Gonna be hard to get snow when it's an all out torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Those maps are lol worthy. As much as the CFS weeklies/monthlies usually are on a day to day basis. For fun, here's today's CFS weeklies through the end of Dec/beginning of Jan. Gonna be hard to get snow when it's an all out torch. That's actually a bit disturbing since those had been indicating a turn toward below average temps during late month, and now the timeframe is closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 That's actually a bit disturbing since those had been indicating a turn toward below average temps during late month, and now the timeframe is closer. See if it's a trend I guess. Today's 3-4 week maps really took a turn for the worse...but they've been essentially worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 That's actually a bit disturbing since those had been indicating a turn toward below average temps during late month, and now the timeframe is closer. Week 3 and Week 4 have been featuring a colder east for about a month now but every time week 3 and week 4 approach, it goes warmer. :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Looking at the week ahead here in SE Wisco, there are no real prospects for snow. The event this weekend looks to be mostly rain at this time.Next week Monday brings us to the 17th of December(I know--thanks captain obvious)--now the second half of the month. Realistically what is to say that the second half of the month will be any different? By next Monday Kenosha will have had nothing but a few flakes--not even marked in the books as a trace of snow. I'm going to make a bold prediction here, but I think areas here in SE Wisco/NE Illinois will only see a few tenths of an inch of snow if any. This will be a year snow lovers look back upon as a worst case scenario--the type of winter even someone like Tropical can't enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm going to make a bold prediction here, but I think areas here in SE Wisco/NE Illinois will only see a few tenths of an inch of snow if any. This will be a year snow lovers look back upon as a worst case scenario--the type of winter even someone like Tropical can't enjoy. That's more than bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Looking at the week ahead here in SE Wisco, there are no real prospects for snow. The event this weekend looks to be mostly rain at this time.Next week Monday brings us to the 17th of December(I know--thanks captain obvious)--now the second half of the month. Realistically what is to say that the second half of the month will be any different? By next Monday Kenosha will have had nothing but a few flakes--not even marked in the books as a trace of snow. I'm going to make a bold prediction here, but I think areas here in SE Wisco/NE Illinois will only see a few tenths of an inch of snow if any. This will be a year snow lovers look back upon as a worst case scenario--the type of winter even someone like Tropical can't enjoy. Well at least our fear of it maybe being a dry winter are easing some IMO.. If we have a good or even avg Jan/Feb/March which I have a good feeling we will... Nobody will remember Dec if it does indeed end up naso good. With this kind of post you should join us in the engaging in a 'say the most idiotic thing possible' contest where we're willing to eat our own sh1t complaint thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 That's more than bold. Just an FYI--that prediction is for the month of December. For MKE, the latest date for the first .1 is December 26th. We're 16 days away from that one--and if you take our snowless drought thru next week Monday--again the 17th--we're only 9 days from cracking that record. For Chicago, the latest first measurable snow is December 16th. Lets say multiple 7 day forecasts verify--that record is broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Well at least our fear of it maybe being a dry winter are easing some IMO.. If we have a good or even avg Jan/Feb/March which I have a good feeling we will... Nobody will remember Dec if it does indeed end up naso good. With this kind of post you should join us in the engaging in a 'say the most idiotic thing possible' contest where we're willing to eat our own sh1t. I'm so in! Whats the prize?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Looking at the week ahead here in SE Wisco, there are no real prospects for snow. The event this weekend looks to be mostly rain at this time.Next week Monday brings us to the 17th of December(I know--thanks captain obvious)--now the second half of the month. Realistically what is to say that the second half of the month will be any different? By next Monday Kenosha will have had nothing but a few flakes--not even marked in the books as a trace of snow. I'm going to make a bold prediction here, but I think areas here in SE Wisco/NE Illinois will only see a few tenths of an inch of snow if any. This will be a year snow lovers look back upon as a worst case scenario--the type of winter even someone like Tropical can't enjoy. Kenosha isn't even on the books for trace! I've seen snow flakes two days in the city. --- We need that Pacific Jet to slow down and have a proper MJO pulse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Looking at the week ahead here in SE Wisco, there are no real prospects for snow. The event this weekend looks to be mostly rain at this time.Next week Monday brings us to the 17th of December(I know--thanks captain obvious)--now the second half of the month. Realistically what is to say that the second half of the month will be any different? By next Monday Kenosha will have had nothing but a few flakes--not even marked in the books as a trace of snow. I'm going to make a bold prediction here, but I think areas here in SE Wisco/NE Illinois will only see a few tenths of an inch of snow if any. This will be a year snow lovers look back upon as a worst case scenario--the type of winter even someone like Tropical can't enjoy. This slow START to winter is REALLY starting to make people lose it. Im not trying to be mean...but when I see posts I just cannot help myself. Pretty good rule of thumb...if you havent seen any measurable snow as of December 10th, you will be lucky to see any in the next 4.5 MONTHS when your area is climatologically favored for snow . I dont think people realize how common a slow start to winter actually is. And im not picking and choosing who has had measurable snow and who hasn't, Im talking slow starts in general. Many, many instances where December is a crapper turn out to be awesome winters, others do not (and likewise some awesome Decembers turn into crappy winters). But I CAN tell you this...I can 100% guarentee you, not 99.98% or 99.99%, but 100% guarentee you that SE WI and NE IL will get more than a few tenths of an inch of snow this winter. And by the way, if Kenosha had a few flakes of snow, that IS marked a as a trace in the books. EDIT: This clears that up some Just an FYI--that prediction is for the month of December. While I still doubt your prediction is true, I do not give a 100% guarentee if its just for December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Well Mongoos - you might get a couple tenths of an inch tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Well Mongoos - you might get a couple tenths of an inch tonight! These never pan out and what does this have to do with med/long range anyway? Edit: not out of the question, but Friday night's event was supposed to be measurable snow, and the most we got was a trace here, so I will not call any amounts till I see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 These never pan out and what does this have to do with med/long range anyway? It has to do with the med/long range because he said SE WI would get a few tenths of an inch of snow or less for all of December. if you get a few tenths of an inch of snow tonight, I don't care if you set a record high the remaining 20 days of the month, you can't take it away from the record books . Although, im sure there are some weenies that wish they could, hence the stat padding phrase that was coined last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Given the latitude of this area, I think the possibility of having only a couple tenths of an inch of snow in December is probably 1 in a 1000! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It has to do with the med/long range because he said SE WI would get a few tenths of an inch of snow or less for all of December. if you get a few tenths of an inch of snow tonight, I don't care if you set a record high the remaining 20 days of the month, you can't take it away from the record books . Although, im sure there are some weenies that wish they could, hence the stat padding phrase that was coined last winter. I saw this coming--its my punishment for speaking out of frustration. But honestly, this year has been off the charts for abnormal weather in my neck of the woods. 80's and shorts for St Pats. Drought conditions for a large chunk of the year--insanely hot summer with a 106 on 7/4. I want a great winter of cold and snow just as much as the next weenie--I'm just saying that it wouldn't surprise me if this December was abnormal like the rest of the year. It'd be a bookend to a very weird year for weather. To go along with that, looking 7 days out we have no real prospects for measurable snow. That leaves 14 days...and I've not seen anything that leaves me confident we'll see a snow that will turn this month around. I hope to be proven wrong--I hope to receive MULTIPLE messages that toss this and my earlier posts right back in my face when Kenosha is hit by a freak 16 inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Given the latitude of this area, I think the possibility of having only a couple tenths of an inch of snow in December is probably 1 in a 1000! Well realistically its a little less than that. Detroit has had 3 Decembers with under an inch of snow, and records began in 1880. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Well realistically its a little less than that. Detroit has had 3 Decembers with under an inch of snow, and records began in 1880. So once every 44 years that equals out too. I'm just saying under a half inch would be very, very slim for December! You probably would have to stick this pattern in the middle of the Dust Bowl years or something similar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Given the latitude of this area, I think the possibility of having only a couple tenths of an inch of snow in December is probably 1 in a 1000! Well realistically its a little less than that. Detroit has had 3 Decembers with under an inch of snow, and records began in 1880. Less than 1.0" of snow in Dec has occured 9 times in Chicago, with the most recent being 2004 (0.6"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Less than 1.0" of snow in Dec has occured 9 times in Chicago, with the most recent being 2004 (0.6"). Wow. As said..just 3 in Detroit, but there have been 11 with less than 2". The 20th least snowy Dec is 3.6". 1889 - 0.0" (the ONLY DJF month on record with NO snow) 1894 - 0.4" 1943 - 0.9" 1988 - 1.2" 1998 - 1.2" 1931 - 1.3" 1982 - 1.4" 1936 - 1.6" 1965 - 1.6" 1939 - 1.9" 1993 - 1.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 During the end of November I set the the over/under ORD December snowfall at 4.3" with Caplan. He took over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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