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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


IWXwx

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GFS/GEFS significantly more muted with the med. range warm up. In contrast, EURO ensembles per the SNE subforum are a disaster through the 15th. I want to maintain at least a touch of positivity but I find it hard to bet against the EURO ensembles, especially with the GEFS cold bias.

 

Just remember that not all that is good/bad for them is the same for us especially further west. I for one do not want a -NAO west which most on the eastcoast would welcome. :)

 

EURO ENS seem to suggest to me a bit of se ridging with a trough in the middle and a bit of ridging on the Pacific side towards the end.Trough does start out west with ridging out this way/east coast. That ofcourse is not good for us.

 

Looks like we may torch briefly while the trough settles into the western part of the country and then it all shifts east giving us a better set up eventually. Perhaps mid/late month for our region?

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Just remember that not all that is good/bad for them is the same for us especially further west. I for one do not want a -NAO west which most on the eastcoast would welcome. :)

 

EURO ENS seem to suggest to me a bit of se ridging with a trough in the middle and a bit of ridging on the Pacific side towards the end.Trough does start out west with ridging out this way/east coast. That ofcourse is not good for us.

 

Looks like we may torch briefly while the trough settles into the western part of the country and then it all shifts east giving us a better set up eventually. Perhaps mid/late month for our region?

 

Yeah I am still liking the 15-20th time frame for a system in the region.

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Just remember that not all that is good/bad for them is the same for us especially further west. I for one do not want a -NAO west which most on the eastcoast would welcome. :)

 

EURO ENS seem to suggest to me a bit of se ridging with a trough in the middle and a bit of ridging on the Pacific side towards the end.Trough does start out west with ridging out this way/east coast. That ofcourse is not good for us.

 

Looks like we may torch briefly while the trough settles into the western part of the country and then it all shifts east giving us a better set up eventually. Perhaps mid/late month for our region?

 

 

If you just care about storms and not lasting cold, then don't wish for a strong -NAO... Personally, I hate watching snow melt and would rather see cold over 40 degrees and gray skies.

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I think a vast majority here would much rather see storm after storm vs cold and dry, even if there is snow on the ground.

 

 

Agreed. Think 2007-08 or 2008-09.. Granted they had a gradient type pattern. With hardly any snow on the ground a -NAO west is the same as a massive torch to me.

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Agreed. Think 2007-08 or 2008-09.. Granted they had a gradient type pattern. With hardly any snow on the ground a -NAO west is the same as a massive torch to me.

 

Yep, I'd rather it be warm if there isn't any weather coming. Cold and dry does not appeal to me at all.

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Warm in winter is for sissies. You've got 7-8 months of the year to bask in warmth. 

 

Anyway, agree with the thoughts about the last half/10 days of January getting back to wintry opportunities. 

 

More about getting some action vs the temps themselves. Think Jan 67 which featured one heck of a torch and then a nice severe wx event up this way which ofcourse was followed up by the blizzard. Yeah that will not be the result everytime as we know but i know our odd's are better at SOMETHING vs the crappy -NAO west which takes a Jan 78 type deal to bust through the block and thus rarer. I just cannot stand boring/dry..

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More about getting some action vs the temps themselves. Think Jan 67 which featured one heck of a torch and then a nice severe wx event up this way which ofcourse was followed up by the blizzard. Yeah that will not be the result everytime as we know but i know our odd's are better at SOMETHING vs the crappy -NAO west which takes a Jan 78 type deal to bust through the block and thus rarer. I just cannot stand boring/dry..

 

I understand. But see I like winter, even if it's cold and boring. Mid 40's and sunny in January is useless to me. I also understand I'm in the minority, but man...8 months of total warmth is enough for me in this weather hell hole called LAF.

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<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Chicago WX" data-cid="1976779" data-time="1357098741"><p>

I understand. But see I like winter, even if it's cold and boring. Mid 40's and sunny in January is useless to me. I also understand I'm in the minority, but man...8 months of total warmth is enough for me in this weather hell hole called LAF.</p></blockquote>

:weenie:

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I understand. But see I like winter, even if it's cold and boring. Mid 40's and sunny in January is useless to me. I also understand I'm in the minority, but man...8 months of total warmth is enough for me in this weather hell hole called LAF.

 

I can understand that.

 

Now if there is DEEP snows on the ground then yeah bring on the cold.

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<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Chicago WX" data-cid="1976779" data-time="1357098741"><p>

I understand. But see I like winter, even if it's cold and boring. Mid 40's and sunny in January is useless to me. I also understand I'm in the minority, but man...8 months of total warmth is enough for me in this weather hell hole called LAF.</p></blockquote>

:weenie:

 

Shove it.

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I can understand that.

 

Now if there is DEEP snows on the ground then yeah bring on the cold.

 

See, that would be ideal. But that doesn't happen too much here. Alas, it's brings me to living in a place that doesn't deliver what I want/seek in weather. That's another story for another day. I better not clutter this thread up with any more of my nonsense.

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Just remember that not all that is good/bad for them is the same for us especially further west. I for one do not want a -NAO west which most on the eastcoast would welcome. :)

 

EURO ENS seem to suggest to me a bit of se ridging with a trough in the middle and a bit of ridging on the Pacific side towards the end.Trough does start out west with ridging out this way/east coast. That ofcourse is not good for us.

 

Looks like we may torch briefly while the trough settles into the western part of the country and then it all shifts east giving us a better set up eventually. Perhaps mid/late month for our region?

 

Well, I'm kinda on the boundary so you can understand why it may apply more to me than folks back west.

 

But I'm glad to hear that it doesn't look like persistent torching on the EURO ensembles.

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I can understand that.

 

Now if there is DEEP snows on the ground then yeah bring on the cold.

 

Of course deep snows would be preferable...but in the mean time, as a winter-lover I am fine with cold, dry, and snowcover. Is the snow waist deep outside? No. But everything is blanketed in snow, snowbanks are everywhere...it looks like what it is - winter. I cannot bring myself to wish for a snowcover destroying, pattern-shaking-up torch because it has a decent (but not guarenteed) chance of bringing good times down the road.

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winter sucks in big cities anyhow.... The city literally removes all the snow after it falls anyhow. Gotta live in the burbs and have a lawn to really appreciate the snow.

 

pretty sure the park in front of my building is larger than your yard...and they don't even bother plowing streets in the city outside major arteries.

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Izzi

 

 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE ADVERTISE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN BEYOND DAY 7 WITH
GFS/ECMWF/FIM ALL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
CONTINUE THROUGH MID/END OF NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN QUITE
TYPICAL OF ONE PRODUCES 50F+ TEMPS HERE THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THE
RATE THINGS ARE GOING CHANCES LOOK HIGHER THAN WE COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CWA BEFORE WE SEE OUR FIRST INCH OF SNOW
OFFICIALLY IN CHICAGO! WHO WOULD HAVE GUESSED THAT CHICAGO WOULD
HAVE A LESS SNOWY AND WARMER FIRST HALF OF WINTER THIS YEAR THAN
LAST YEAR`S EXCUSE FOR A WINTER...
 

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