Jonger Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The annual 'January Thaw' may be an old wives' tale or just anecdotal, but it seems to happen every year and there it is on the ensembles. We have only had 10 days of cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2013 Author Share Posted January 1, 2013 We have only had 10 days of cold though. Plus another 5 days of cold coming = 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Damn, not liking that torch reaching up into the Prairies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 GFS/GEFS significantly more muted with the med. range warm up. In contrast, EURO ensembles per the SNE subforum are a disaster through the 15th. I want to maintain at least a touch of positivity but I find it hard to bet against the EURO ensembles, especially with the GEFS cold bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 GFS/GEFS significantly more muted with the med. range warm up. In contrast, EURO ensembles per the SNE subforum are a disaster through the 15th. I want to maintain at least a touch of positivity but I find it hard to bet against the EURO ensembles, especially with the GEFS cold bias. Just remember that not all that is good/bad for them is the same for us especially further west. I for one do not want a -NAO west which most on the eastcoast would welcome. EURO ENS seem to suggest to me a bit of se ridging with a trough in the middle and a bit of ridging on the Pacific side towards the end.Trough does start out west with ridging out this way/east coast. That ofcourse is not good for us. Looks like we may torch briefly while the trough settles into the western part of the country and then it all shifts east giving us a better set up eventually. Perhaps mid/late month for our region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Just remember that not all that is good/bad for them is the same for us especially further west. I for one do not want a -NAO west which most on the eastcoast would welcome. EURO ENS seem to suggest to me a bit of se ridging with a trough in the middle and a bit of ridging on the Pacific side towards the end.Trough does start out west with ridging out this way/east coast. That ofcourse is not good for us. Looks like we may torch briefly while the trough settles into the western part of the country and then it all shifts east giving us a better set up eventually. Perhaps mid/late month for our region? Yeah I am still liking the 15-20th time frame for a system in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Just remember that not all that is good/bad for them is the same for us especially further west. I for one do not want a -NAO west which most on the eastcoast would welcome. EURO ENS seem to suggest to me a bit of se ridging with a trough in the middle and a bit of ridging on the Pacific side towards the end.Trough does start out west with ridging out this way/east coast. That ofcourse is not good for us. Looks like we may torch briefly while the trough settles into the western part of the country and then it all shifts east giving us a better set up eventually. Perhaps mid/late month for our region? If you just care about storms and not lasting cold, then don't wish for a strong -NAO... Personally, I hate watching snow melt and would rather see cold over 40 degrees and gray skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I think a vast majority here would much rather see storm after storm vs cold and dry, even if there is snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I think a vast majority here would much rather see storm after storm vs cold and dry, even if there is snow on the ground. Agreed. Think 2007-08 or 2008-09.. Granted they had a gradient type pattern. With hardly any snow on the ground a -NAO west is the same as a massive torch to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Agreed. Think 2007-08 or 2008-09.. Granted they had a gradient type pattern. With hardly any snow on the ground a -NAO west is the same as a massive torch to me. Yep, I'd rather it be warm if there isn't any weather coming. Cold and dry does not appeal to me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Warm in winter is for sissies. You've got 7-8 months of the year to bask in warmth. Anyway, agree with the thoughts about the last half/10 days of January getting back to wintry opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Warm in winter is for sissies. You've got 7-8 months of the year to bask in warmth. Anyway, agree with the thoughts about the last half/10 days of January getting back to wintry opportunities. More about getting some action vs the temps themselves. Think Jan 67 which featured one heck of a torch and then a nice severe wx event up this way which ofcourse was followed up by the blizzard. Yeah that will not be the result everytime as we know but i know our odd's are better at SOMETHING vs the crappy -NAO west which takes a Jan 78 type deal to bust through the block and thus rarer. I just cannot stand boring/dry.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 More about getting some action vs the temps themselves. Think Jan 67 which featured one heck of a torch and then a nice severe wx event up this way which ofcourse was followed up by the blizzard. Yeah that will not be the result everytime as we know but i know our odd's are better at SOMETHING vs the crappy -NAO west which takes a Jan 78 type deal to bust through the block and thus rarer. I just cannot stand boring/dry.. I understand. But see I like winter, even if it's cold and boring. Mid 40's and sunny in January is useless to me. I also understand I'm in the minority, but man...8 months of total warmth is enough for me in this weather hell hole called LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Chicago WX" data-cid="1976779" data-time="1357098741"><p> I understand. But see I like winter, even if it's cold and boring. Mid 40's and sunny in January is useless to me. I also understand I'm in the minority, but man...8 months of total warmth is enough for me in this weather hell hole called LAF.</p></blockquote> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I understand. But see I like winter, even if it's cold and boring. Mid 40's and sunny in January is useless to me. I also understand I'm in the minority, but man...8 months of total warmth is enough for me in this weather hell hole called LAF. I can understand that. Now if there is DEEP snows on the ground then yeah bring on the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Chicago WX" data-cid="1976779" data-time="1357098741"><p>I understand. But see I like winter, even if it's cold and boring. Mid 40's and sunny in January is useless to me. I also understand I'm in the minority, but man...8 months of total warmth is enough for me in this weather hell hole called LAF.</p></blockquote> Shove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I can understand that. Now if there is DEEP snows on the ground then yeah bring on the cold. See, that would be ideal. But that doesn't happen too much here. Alas, it's brings me to living in a place that doesn't deliver what I want/seek in weather. That's another story for another day. I better not clutter this thread up with any more of my nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Just remember that not all that is good/bad for them is the same for us especially further west. I for one do not want a -NAO west which most on the eastcoast would welcome. EURO ENS seem to suggest to me a bit of se ridging with a trough in the middle and a bit of ridging on the Pacific side towards the end.Trough does start out west with ridging out this way/east coast. That ofcourse is not good for us. Looks like we may torch briefly while the trough settles into the western part of the country and then it all shifts east giving us a better set up eventually. Perhaps mid/late month for our region? Well, I'm kinda on the boundary so you can understand why it may apply more to me than folks back west. But I'm glad to hear that it doesn't look like persistent torching on the EURO ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I can understand that. Now if there is DEEP snows on the ground then yeah bring on the cold. Of course deep snows would be preferable...but in the mean time, as a winter-lover I am fine with cold, dry, and snowcover. Is the snow waist deep outside? No. But everything is blanketed in snow, snowbanks are everywhere...it looks like what it is - winter. I cannot bring myself to wish for a snowcover destroying, pattern-shaking-up torch because it has a decent (but not guarenteed) chance of bringing good times down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 6z GFS showing some really cold air way out in fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Already looking forward to Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 That cold has been shown consistently on the GFS after a storm.... Looks like we have to bear through about 5 days of crap first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 mongolia can keep the cold and dry, pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Already looking forward to Spring winter sucks in big cities anyhow.... The city literally removes all the snow after it falls anyhow. Gotta live in the burbs and have a lawn to really appreciate the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 winter sucks in big cities anyhow.... The city literally removes all the snow after it falls anyhow. Gotta live in the burbs and have a lawn to really appreciate the snow. pretty sure the park in front of my building is larger than your yard...and they don't even bother plowing streets in the city outside major arteries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Izzi MEDIUM RANGE MODELSCONTINUE ADVERTISE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN BEYOND DAY 7 WITHGFS/ECMWF/FIM ALL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPSCONTINUE THROUGH MID/END OF NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN QUITETYPICAL OF ONE PRODUCES 50F+ TEMPS HERE THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THERATE THINGS ARE GOING CHANCES LOOK HIGHER THAN WE COULD SEETHUNDERSTORMS IN THE CWA BEFORE WE SEE OUR FIRST INCH OF SNOWOFFICIALLY IN CHICAGO! WHO WOULD HAVE GUESSED THAT CHICAGO WOULDHAVE A LESS SNOWY AND WARMER FIRST HALF OF WINTER THIS YEAR THANLAST YEAR`S EXCUSE FOR A WINTER... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Seems like every year we have one or two days in January in the 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 6z GEFS would be ideal in the long range. Cutter after cutter after cutter. Some may be wet, some may be white, depending on one's location...but it's better than having storms run up the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 6z GFS showing some really cold air way out in fantasy range. Saved for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Saved for posterity. This would be perfect. Cold haters crying for their mommas and a 5-10" snowstorm for Chicago that ushers it in...two days before another futility record was expected to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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